Holloway vs Aldo 2 Breakdown
Let's get this fact out of the way: both Holloway and Aldo lost to Conor McGregor but doing so doesn't tarnish their legacies. Holloway (-260) and Aldo (+200) will rematch their classic tilt from UFC 212,which Holloway won by knocking Aldo out. Not only is the belt on the line again, but the legacy of being dubbed the "greatest featherweight in UFC history" is as well.
Holloway, the current champ, is riding an 11-fight winning streak and hasn't lost a bout since 2014. Aldo, the former champ, rode a 15-fight UFC/WEC win streak. They've beaten the best and have untouchable achievements. For Aldo, defeating Holloway will make him a three-time UFC champion and will prove to everyone he's still the division's best while Holloway wants to make an even more emphatic statement.
Holloway was a slight underdog against Aldo in their first bout but took three rounds to put him away via punches. Aldo started quicker dictated the fight and outstruck Holloway for the better of the first two rounds. By the third, Holloway floored Aldo with a one-two and finished him with ground-and-pound. Holloway finished Aldo with a seemingly casual combination and was just getting started.
The reigning champion is one of the UFC's most prolific strikers averaging 5.79 significant strikes landed per minute at a 44 per cent clip. Aldo is one of the best defensive strikers absorbing only 2.39, 69 per cent effective. Aldo needs to utilize his leg kicks again, the main key to his past successes. He and coach Andre Pedeirnas will dig deep and exact a calculating game plan. But Holloway won't be fooled.
Aldo will have a better gameplan coming into this bout against Holloway but the way Holloway finished him in their first bout is telling: Aldo is just not what he once was. Holloway, only 25, is just hitting his peak. He hits harder, has the better chin, and has the previous experience of knocking out Aldo. This is Holloway's fight to lose. Expect an even better performance from Max Holloway and bank on him to knock Aldo out within the first two rounds.
Our Record: 2-0
Betting Stats & Tidbits:
- 68%: the expected outcome of Holloway finishing Aldo; Holloway by decision was second at 14% and Aldo by decision comes in third at 12%.
- +215: the highest line on Aldo before this fight, which was his WEC debut way back in 2008 against Alexandre Noguiera; Aldo won by round 2 TKO.
- 2-1: the betting record for the under in round totals for both Holloway and Aldo's last three fights.
- 11-0: Holloway's overall UFC record as a favourite; all of Holloway's three losses came when he was an underdog.
Best Bets for UFC 218: Holloway vs Aldo 2
Lock it Up! The lock of the night goes to Henry Cejudo (-270) who showed massive improvements in his striking against Wilson Reis, where he earned his first UFC finish by TKO. Sergio Pettis (+195) is a brilliant striker in his own right but Cejudo's potent wrestling gives him the edge and he wins at least two rounds here.
Our Record: 0-2
Who's A Good Dog? Whenever Charles Oliveira (+110) fights, someone gets finished. Paul Felder (-140) has never been submitted before but he was training for Al Iaquinta, a boxer and gets a submission specialist on short notice. If Oliveira can get his hands on Felder, it could be a wrap for the Irish Dragon.
Our Record: 1-1
Just Say No: to Amanda Cooper (-530) vs Angela Magana (+365). It's tempting to fade Magana, who is arguably the worst fighter on the roster but Cooper herself is not that great. Stay far away.
Main Card (Pay-Per-View, 10:00 PM ET)
- Featherweight Championship (145 lbs): (C) Max Holloway (-260) vs #1 Jose Aldo (+200)
- Heavyweight (265 lbs): #1 Alistair Overeem (+200) vs #4 Francis Ngannou (-270)
- Flyweight (125 lbs): #2 Henry Cejudo (-270) vs #4 Sergio Pettis (+195)
- Lightweight (155 lbs): #4 Eddie Alvarez (+150) vs #5 Justin Gaethje (-190)
- Women's Strawweight (115 lbs): #5 Tecia Torres (-235) vs #6 Michelle Waterson (+175)
Preliminary Card (TSN 2, 8:00 PM ET)
- Lightweight (155 lbs): Charles Oliveira (+110) vs Paul Felder (-140)
- Welterweight (170 lbs): #15 Alex Oliveira (-260) vs Yancy Medeiros (+190)
- Lightweight (155 lbs): David Teymur (-180) vs Drakhar Klose (+140)
- Women's Strawweight (115 lbs): Felice Herrig (-150) vs Cortney Casey (+120)
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass, 6:15 PM ET)
- Women's Strawweight (115 lbs): Amanda Cooper (-530) vs Angela Magana (+365)
- Welterweight (170 lbs): Sabah Homasi (+190) vs Abdul Razak Alhassan (-260)
- Light Heavyweight (205 lbs): Jeremy Kimball (+345) vs Dominick Reyes (-520)
- Heavyweight (265 lbs): Justin Willis (-230) vs Allen Crowder (+170)
*Note: all betting odds via Sports Interaction
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