UFC 205 Picks: Conor McGregor vs Eddie Alvarez Odds
UFC Finally Arrives At The Empire State. It doesn't get any bigger than this. The New York State Assembly finally legalized mixed martial arts and the UFC wasted no time and put together the biggest card with three title fights, eight past and present champions, 20 fighters who have headlined a UFC event and at least ten future Hall of Famers. The iconic Madison Square Garden will be filled to the roof as over 20,000 MMA-starved fans get wild for what will be the greatest night in the sport's history.
McGregor vs Eddie Alvarez Odds At Sports Interaction
McGregor is once again a favourite despite barely edging out Nate Diaz in his previous bout. Oddsmakers still believe McGregor holds a distinct advantage thanks to his knockout power and Alvarez's shaky chin. But the lightweight champion has a wrestling edge and a clear path to victory although McGregor proved in his last fight he can handle himself well if the fight should go past two rounds. The decision props here may be worth a stab as both fighters are incredibly durable and resilient.
Conor McGregor vs Eddie Alvarez UFC 2016 Pick
This will be McGregor's toughest fight to death but he can pull it off. Alvarez is the more complete MMA fighter: he presents the cardiovascular endurance to go five-rounds, can hit hard and with precision and can wrestle if he needs it. But McGregor has the greatest equalizer: one-punch knockout power.
BET CONOR MCGREGOR (-160) AT SPORTINTERACTION. Many criticize McGregor for his limited skillset and his trash talking preceding his actual abilities. Even Alvarez said he wanted to fight McGregor because he was an "easy fight" and he sounds convinced he has a surefire method to victory with his wrestling. But it's easier said than done. McGregor weathered wrestling attacks from Chad Mendes and Nate Diaz and will do the same to Alvarez. Fighters who also underestimate their opponents tend to get humbled i.e. Luke Rockhold vs Michael Bisping.
Alvarez will use his wrestling to control and wear McGregor out but 25 minutes is a long time. McGregor will focus on wisely using his energy and defending Alvarez's takedowns. If McGregor finds himself standing with Alvarez, he'll have a slight advantage. All he needs is a small window to catch Alvarez's shaky chin to put him away. At 155, McGregor's power is even more immense and despite losing rounds on his back he'll eventually knock out Alvarez in a dramatic comeback.
2016 McGregor vs Alvarez Fight Betting Tips
The fight isn't expected to hit the score cards given both fighter's propensity for finishing fights. McGregor's fights have a 90% finishing rate (all his losses are by submission) while 78% of Alvarez's fights end in a finish (three of his four losses are via finish). Betting on McGregor to win is a safer bet but betting him to knockout Alvarez at a cheaper price of -110 may be the better bet. Both fighters also fight at a high-pace most notably McGregor who lands 6.02 significant strikes per minute (48% striking accuracy) while absorbing 4.93 (56% striking defense).
Alvarez's striking numbers are slightly lower landing 3.64 while absorbing 3.21 but it's mainly because of wrestling more and spending more time against the cage or in the clinch. Alvarez averages 3.90 takedowns per 15 minutes at 41% accuracy going against McGregor's 70% takedown defense. The question is if McGregor's defense trumps Alvarez's takedowns. If it's a "yes", he will win but if it's a "no", he'll lose. Within 25 minutes, McGregor's defense will hold up long enough for him to land the deathblow.
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