| Fri 24/11/2017 - 17:56 EST

UFC Fight Night Shanghai: Bisping vs Gastelum Will Be War

UFC Fight Night Shanghai: Bisping vs Gastelum Will Be War

Bisping vs Gastelum Breakdown

Let's just pause for a moment to give Michael Bisping his due. The former UFC middleweight champion is saving the card and coming in on extremely short notice after having just been beaten up by Georges St-Pierre less than three weeks ago. That's heart, which is what the +200 underdog is known for but he'll need more than that against the mauler that is Kelvin Gastelum (-265).

The Mexican-American was a former welterweight but has found success moving up to middleweight with huge finishes over Tim Kennedy and Vitor Belfort. He's built like a bloated lightweight and he'll be considerably smaller than Bisping, who has fought as a light heavyweight early in his career. The short notice and wear-and-tear are Bisping's biggest hurdles here but Gastelum is far from a sure bet. Ladies and gentlemen, we are in for a war!  

UFC Fight Night Shanghai: Bisping vs Gastelum

Upsets become rarer on Fight Pass cards nowadays but Bisping engineered one of those upsets when he defeated Anderson Silva as a +240 underdog. He became 2016's most bankable underdog and he has never lost consecutive fights in his entire career. However, at 38 with 38 pro bouts behind him, Bisping might be at the twilight of his career.

Bisping has elite toughness and endurance and puts on a tiring pace as evidenced by his 4.34 significant strikes landed per minute. He only absorbs 2.69 making him one of the UFC's best strikers. Gastelum also fights a high-pressure pace and is more accurate with his strikes at 44.32 per cent. Gastelum doesn't use his wrestling as much as he should but his back-take game is underrated and Bisping has a habit of giving up his back. 

The edge goes to Gastelum. He's the fresher fighter and can go all five-rounds. If he mixes his striking and wrestling, he can open Bisping up and land more frequently. If he gets Bisping to the ground, he could take his back and lock up his nasty rear-naked choke. Gastelum wins this war.

Our Record: 1-0

Betting Stats & Tidbits:

  • -15%: the line movement for Kelvin Gastelum since opening, the second-highest after Muslim Salikhov at -23%
  • 70%: the expected outcome of a Kelvin Gastelum finish in this bout; Gastelum decision was second at 12% and Bisping by decision, third at 10%
  • 2-1: the betting record for the over in round totals for Gastelum's last three fights
  • 2-1: the betting record for the under in round totals for Bisping's last three fights

Best Bets for UFC Fight Night Shanghai

Lock it Up! The lock of the night goes to Bobby Nash (-335) and it's tough considering he's been knocked out in both of his UFC appearances but Kenan Song (+240) is a significant step down from Li Jingliang and Danny Roberts. Song is a well-rounded fighter but Nash is a better wrestler and has heavier hands. He'll put Song away within two rounds.

Our Record: 0-1

Who's A Good Dog? in a traditional striker versus grappler matchup, side with the grappler: Alex Garcia (+180) against Muslim Salikhov (-245). The "King of Kung Fu" is exciting and has explosive striking but is untested on the ground. Garcia is a powerful wrestler training with Montreal's Tri-Star gym. He has heavy hands and can grind out Salikhov if he takes him to the mat. 

Our Record: 0-1

Just Say No: to Kailin Curran (+120) vs Yan Xiaonan (-150) at their current prices; if either of their prices goes higher then maybe. But Curran is unbettable with a 1-5 record and Xiaonan is a green newcomer. Pass.

Main Card (Fight Network/UFC Fight Pass, 7 AM ET)

  • Middleweight (185 lbs): #2 Michael Bisping (+195) vs #9 Kelvin Gastelum (-265)
  • Welterweight (170 lbs): Li Jingliang (-195) vs Zak Ottow (+155)
  • Featherweight (145 lbs): Wang Guan (-135) vs Alex Caceres (+110)
  • Welterweight (170 lbs): Muslim Salikhov (-245) vs Alex Garcia (+180)

Preliminary Card (Fight Network, 3:45 AM ET)

  • Featherweight (145 lbs): Zabit Magomedsharipov (-560) vs Sheymon Moraes (+375)
  • Welterweight (170 lbs): Kenan Song (+240) vs Bobby Nash (-335)
  • Women's Strawweight (115 lbs): Kailin Curran (+120) vs Yan Xiaonan (-150)
  • Featherweight (145 lbs): Yadong Song (-150) vs Bharat Khandare (+120)
  • Heavyweight (265 lbs): Chase Sherman (+115) vs Shamil Abdurakhimov (-145)
  • Women's Bantamweight (135 lbs): Yanan Wu (+120) vs Gina Mazany (-150)
  • Featherweight (145 lbs): Wuliji Buren (+135) vs Rolando Dy (-175) 
  • Heavyweight (265 lbs): Cyril Asker (-265) vs Hu Yaozong (+205)

*Note: all betting odds via Sports Interaction

Sportsbooks like SIA and Bodog are two of the best for UFC/MMA. These are the best Canadian books and offer competitive odds for MMA. Check out these books and use their sign-up bonuses.

Category : UFC

More articles...
UFC - 18/07/19
UFC 240 Odds, facts and previews for main fights 
UFC 240 odds are live from Edmonton, Alberta for the second straight year. 

Honourary Canadian Max "Blessed" Holloway looks to make it three featherweight title defenses as he takes on former lightweight champion Frankie Edgar.

Bringing in the co-main event is former pound-for-pound queen, Cris "Cyborg" as she looks to rebound against the surging Canadian Felicia Spencer.

Plenty more Canadian content around as we preview the UFC 240 betting odds.
UFC - 08/07/19
UFC 239 Odds, facts and previews for main fights 

UFC 239 odds features a favourite-heavy card meaning it will turn out to be a fairly predictable evening or one filled with shockers. Light heavyweight king Jones leads the pack as the 1.17 favourite against Santos (5.00). Joining him is women's bantamweight champ Amanda Nunes (1.31) who will be another big favourite against former champion Holly Holm (3.50). We have the main card breakdown complete with UFC 239 betting odds.

UFC - 20/12/18
UFC 232: Jones vs Gustafsson, MMA's Greatest Rematch 
Their first fight was an instant classic: former light heavyweight champion Jon "Bones" Jones returns to battle Alexander Gustafsson for the vacant title. UFC 232 will be the promotion's last event of 2018 and what a way to end everything! This fight will be a pleasure to watch and one of the best MMA odds to keep an eye on. We give break down the UFC odds.
UFC - 06/11/18
Floyd Mayweather vs Tenshin Nasukawa odds 
Mayweather invades Japan as the unbeaten boxing superstar surprised everyone with a fight against rising kickboxing star Tenshin Nasukawa. The fight is scheduled for New Year's Eve, December 31 in the Saitama Super Arena in what should be a massive event that will draw huge viewership numbers. The fight will be a boxing match as Mayweather gets his second consecutive MMA fighter. We break down this upcoming crossover fight.