Tottenham vs Arsenal Premier League Odds, Prediction
Tottenham vs Arsenal Preview and Picks
The Form Guide
Tottenham certainly come into this match in the better form. They have lost just once in their last ten matches, and have endured and excelled in their tough recent fixtures against Liverpool and Manchester United. They dominated their top four rivals in both matches, and will take plenty of confidence into this derby fixture. Their sole loss in this period came at the hands of Manchester City, which isn't really a surprise the way the Champions-elect are playing.
Harry Kane notched up his 100th Premier League goal to salvage a point against Liverpool, which was crucial in ensuring they stay in touch with the Champions League places. They find themselves just a point shy of a Chelsea side that is struggling to keep their heads above water, and will have the opportunity to move into third position on the table for at least a few short hours if they defeat Arsenal.
While their home form isn't quite as good as it was in their final season at the old White Hart Lane, (they managed to go undefeated through the 2016/17 season and pick up 53 points from a possible 57), Tottenham have lost just once at Wembley this campaign (a 2-1 loss to Chelsea). Conversely, Arsenal's away form has been terrible this season - they have picked up just three road wins in thirteen matches.
The Gunners may have the less successful record over the previous ten matches, which includes losses to both Bournemouth (2-1) and Swansea City (3-1) in the last three weeks, however they may have turned a new leaf after the closure of the January transfer window. Their 5-1 drubbing of Everton is a sign that the end of the ongoing saga surrounding Alexis Sanchez may help the Londoners get their season on track.
Olivier Giroud and Theo Walcott joined Sanchez in exiting the club, however Arsenal fans have plenty of reason to be excited as Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang both showed plenty in the win over Everton. Mkhitaryan has already assisted three goals in 120 minutes of football since his move from Manchester United, the same number that Sanchez managed in the entire first half of the season (1507 minutes).
Both sides will be potent in the attacking third on Saturday. Harry Kane has scored six goals in six games against Arsenal - the only time he has failed to score was in the reverse fixture this season. He has also scored 21 goals in 32 Premier League London derbies - of players to have played 20+ fixtures, only Arsenal legend Thierry Henry managed a better strike rate.
For Arsenal, Aubameyang has scored four goals in four matches against Tottenham; once in the Champions League and three times in the Europa League.
Head to Head Market
As you would expect, Tottenham enter this match as the favourite considering they are playing at home. There are also a number of other reasons why they deserve their tag of favourites:
- Spurs have lost just one of their last seven EPL games against Arsenal (two wins and four draws).
- Tottenham have only lost five matches at home to Arsenal in the EPL era (25 matches).
- Arsenal would be ninth in the league if only away form was considered. They are also ninth in terms of away goal difference (-6) and goals scored (15 from 13 matches).
- Arsenal have only managed three clean sheets away from home this season.
Despite these facts, there are a couple of reasons why we are hesitant to back the home side here:
- Four of the last eight North London Premier League derbies have finished level.
- This is the first time Arsenal and Tottenham have played at Wembley since April 1993, so there is a chance Arsenal could excel on what could be considered a neutral venue.
- They say a change is as good as a holiday - the distraction that is Alexis Sanchez is gone and Arsenal can move onwards and upwards.
This match is tough to call. Currently, Sports Interaction are offering the following odds:
- Tottenham: -103
- Draw: +276
- Arsenal: +236
Despite Arsenal's poor away form, we actually believe they can take something out of this match. The game is crucial to their season, as a loss would go a long way to ensuring they are competing in the Europa League for the second consecutive campaign (unless of course they can win this season's tournament). We are tipping the draw @ +276.
If you're not a fan of placing your money on the head to head market because you can't decide on the potential outcome, we recommend betting on some of the other markets available through Sports Interaction. The key here is research, and we've got a couple of stats that may help you select one of the more exotic options:
- This fixture has seen both sides score in the game on 34 occasions in the Premier League, which is higher than all other matchups in the competition.
- Although the last two fixtures between the two sides featured a clean sheet, the last time there were three in a row was back in 1991.
- Seven of the last ten league fixtures between the sides have resulted in less than three goals, although all three instances where there were three or more occurred in Tottenham home matches.
The over/under provided by Sports Interaction has been set at +2.5, and is paying -208. Although we've mentioned that the unders have been the tip in the majority of recent fixtures, we simply can't see there being less than three goals in this one. Arsenal's leaky defence has not been improved during the transfer window, and both sides have an incredible strike force. Go for the Overs @ -208.
Correct Score Market
All the money is with the home side in this market, although we are going to stick with our draw pick and put our money on a 2-2 draw @ +900.
Interestingly, the shortest odds are available for a 1-1 draw, despite the odds for a draw in the head to head market being the longest of the three options. You can get +596 for this scoreline, or if you are bold you could try picking 3-3 @ +3200. A 2-1 win to Tottenham is the only other figure less than +1000, meaning that you will win some serious money if you manage to pick this one.
Both Teams To Score Market
While the +900 on offer for the correct score is tempting, it's extremely difficult to pick a scoreline in any fixture. It's a lot easier to determine whether or not both teams will score, and in this fixture we've already expressed why we believe both teams will hit the back of the net. It's no surprise, therefore, to see short odds on the 'Yes'. Go for 'Yes' @ -227.
Individual Scorer Markets
While picking the first goal scorer of a match can be a lottery, you will get some fantastic odds on players to knock the first one in. Here are the best chances:
- Harry Kane has scored six in six against the Gunners and is paying +272. If anyone will score from Tottenham, it will be him, and he also takes penalties which is a bonus.
- Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has already opened his account at his new club, and will be the best option if you believe Arsenal will strike first. He presents great value at +439.
- Arsenal have been notoriously bad at defending set pieces this campaign, so you might see a tall defender score an early headed. Have a go at Eric Dier, he's paying a whopping +1786!
Sports Interaction have a stack of other markets, we've really just listed the tip of the iceberg. For more betting tips and tricks, make sure you check out the rest of our site, and above all - good luck this weekend!
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