Soccer Betting Tips: November's Ramble
If you love soccer, and if you love sports betting, you are in the right place. Now there are too many different teams and trends for me to cover in one article but here are some of the major takeaways that I have noticed in the first few months of the season:
PARLAYS ARE DEAD MONEY
If part of your weekly betting routine is to lump a few heavy moneyline favorites together in an attempt to make an easy unit you have been burning a hole after hole in your bankroll.
Let's look at Spain and Germany to illustrate this point:
The two most public teams from a betting standpoint in Germany are Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich. In 10 matchdays they have only won on the same matchday 4 times.
The three most publically bet teams in Spain are Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid. In 11 matchdays, all 3 have only won on the same matchday 3 times.
Good luck getting any consistent gains with that parity. And don't even get me started on England...Ok get me started on England.
GOD SAVE THE CLEAN SHEETS
Table toppers Liverpool and Chelsea have only each failed to win in 3 of 11 matches respectively.
If you are looking for consistency, Chelsea and Liverpool may be your best bets going forward, when they each have their full complement of players. What makes this likely is that neither team has mid week UEFA matches. What throws a monkey wrench in this is that both teams have important players travelling to Africa and South America every international break.
Since Chelsea's philosophy switch they have kept 5 consecutive clean sheets. Seeing as how their next opponent is Middlesborough, it would not be farfetched for them to continue this run. They have 6 in 11 Premier League games total.
Liverpool have only kept one clean sheet in 11 games. However both Liverpool and Chelsea play heavily to the Over 2.5 goals wager. In their 11 games, Liverpool have gone over 2.5 goals 8 times and Chelsea 9, including all six games at Stamford Bridge.
Then there's Tottenham and Everton on the other side of the spectrum. Both of these sides have been playing heavily to the under at home. Everton have seen 4 of 5 league games go under 2.5 goals while all 5 of Tottenham's home games have gone under 2.5 goals.
And Spurs' lack of overs has also meant they have played six draws, five have been 1-1 and the other was nil-nil.
Looking at Bet365 odds, you'd only have to be correct once out of seven tries (14%) to make money guessing a 1-1 final score. With the Spurs you would have been right 45% of the time thus far. Then there is Manchester City, who fit into such a stereotypical pattern. All 7 of their Premier League wins have gone Over 2.5. All 4 games where they did not win were Under the number. This would appear to be a function of the manager's tactics as well as his team's inability to defend a 1-0 lead. For Pep's team to win, the game needs at least 3 goals.
But let's face it - it is hard to handicap a team that went from beating Barcelona to being held by Middlesborough only a few days later. But fear not. While some teams results are helter skelter, some teams haven't changed.
THE OLD DEPENDABLE LADY
Bet Juventus in Serie A. Bet them at your heart's leisure. Toss them on the back end of almost any parlay and they will bring you home and tuck you into bed. They have only lost twice this season and both games were in the San Siro against the Milan teams. Aside from those hiccups, in a world full of uncertainty, Juventus FC are as reliable as it gets.
Werder Bremen, in the German Bundesliga, ship a ton of goals. All 10 of their games have gone over 2.5 goals. 6 of 10 have gone over 3.5 goals.
12 of Roma's 15 games in all competitions have gone Over 2.5 goals.
Las Palmas in La Liga has a very notable home field advantage. Being that they are located in the Canary Islands off of the West Coast of Africa, the home team in their matches has the uncommon task of facing a team a day or so after a very long flight.
If you bet Las Palmas +0.5 every game since last season in their home games you would have gone 19-6. In their away games, 9-15.
For all things footy related, you can follow me on twitter @zahir_gilani
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