Can Atlanta United FC end it's Historic Season with a Championship?
The MLS Cup Finals gets underway on Saturday, Dec 8 when Atlanta United hosts the Portland Timbers. This is the first Finals for Atlanta United, who only joined Major League Soccer in 2017, while Portland tries to go 2-0 in the MLS Cup Finals, having won their first in 2015. While Portland is more accomplished overall, Atlanta United is a better team and should win on Saturday. Find all the best MLS betting odds here for the Finals on Saturday.
MLS Cup Finals Betting Odds
MLS Cup Finals Prediction
At the start of the season, Atlanta United FC was a good pick to win the MLS Cup, and bettors should remain confident in Atlanta to on Saturday. Atlanta lost only two games at home during the regular season and conceded just 19 goals in 17 games in Atlanta.
The Portland Timbers run to the MLS Cup Finals is impressive considering they finished fifth in the Western Conference and only mustered a +6-goal differential. Their play on the road this season leaves a lot to be desired. Portland went 4-5-8 on the road with a -11-goal differential.
Portland and Atlanta played to a 1-1 draw in their only meeting this season (they also played just once in 2017 to a 1-1 draw in Portland.
Even though these two teams have played some close games the last two seasons, Atlanta United is the superior team. Add in home field advantage and the top scorer in the lead Josef Martinez, and Atlanta is a good bet to win their first MLS Championship on Saturday.
Pick: Atlanta United (-217) to win outright
Total Goals Betting Odds
Opening at the standard 2.5 goals, the line is shaded to entice more bets on the under. History also backs betting on the under in the MLS Cup.
Going back to 2005, seven of the 13 MLS Cup Finals ended with two goals or less.
This year’s Finals is also very much like last year’s Finals between Toronto FC and the Seattle Sounders. Both Toronto and Atlanta finished the year with 69 points and hosted the Championship. Seattle, like Portland this season, played much worse on the road and finished the year with a -7-goal difference away.
In the Finals last year, Toronto won 2-0. This year’s Finals has a similar feed, and with the value on the under and the fact it has occurred only 50% of the time the last 13 years, it is the better pick.
Pick: Under 2.5 goals (+104)
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Best Prop Bets on the MLS Cup Final
One of the best prop bets on the 2018 MLS Cup Finals is total goals for the home team.
Atlanta averaged 2.47 goals at home this season, while Portland gave up an average of 2.06 goals on the road.
This puts Atlanta’s expected goal total just over two for the game. The line on two total goals for the home team is +210.
Pick: Total goals for the home team – 2 (+210)
One of the more risky prop bets (which does go against our predictions) is on which teams will score. Betting on the Portland Timbers only has a line of +1101. While expectations are for Atlanta to win this game and Portland to struggle to score, a small wager on this prop can hedge against an utterly disastrous showing by Atlanta.
Pick: Which teams will score? Portland Timbers only (+1101)