Bets on the Springboard Mile 2018
This field of 11 offers plenty of wagering value in a race where I am confident several morning lines are way off the mark. In short there is betting value to be had here, and it's our job to unlock it. Let the fun begin.
Analysis and odds
Epic Dreamer (8/5) is the morning line favorite for trainer Kelly Breen after recording a pair of fast races at Belmont Park in the fall.
The son of 2013 KY Derby winner, Orb, lost his debut by a little over a length, but that race proved extra live as the first and third-place horses came right back to win. Epic Dreamer would also come back victorious, capturing his next start with a 2 1/2-length score against maidens going 1 1/16 miles over the main track at Belmont.
Here's a look at the field:
- Epic Dreamer 8/5
- Kaziranga 15/1
- Marquee Prince 10/1
- Six Shooter 8/1
- Long Range Toddy 12/1
- Tone Broke 15/1
- Dobbins G 30/1
- Bankit 3/1
- Tobacco Road 15/1
- Dunph 10/1
- D Toz 20/1
Picks and morning line mistakes
To begin with what I believe is obvious, Dunph represents tremendous value at, or near his morning line price of 10/1. Good luck getting that at post time. The Michael Maker trainee was unbeaten with two blowout victories to his credit before suiting up for the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last out. That event was contested over a sloppy racetrack, which may not have been to his liking. I'd say the bettors will make this colt somewhere around 3/1 or 7/2 by the time the gates open.
Like Dunph, Long Range Toddy (12/1) represents tremendous value if permitted to go to post near his morning line price. This Steve Asmussen trainee is rapidly improving, and his shown that progression in each of his three starts with ascending Beyer Speed Figures of 49, 63 and 77.
How to bet em'
As always, picking horses is only half the battle. Betting them is another matter altogether, and I feel like I am blessed with options in this renewal of the Springboard Mile. One bet I'll definitely be playing is a 1,5,10 Exacta Box using Epic Dreamer, Long Range Toddy and Dunph in equal measure. I'll play this combination as a trifecta for a lesser amount and also log a win bet on Dunph.
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