MLB Trades Effect On The World Series Futures For 2017
Could huge trades lead to small changes? Welcome back everyone, and today we'll be delving into the MLB futures market. We'll check out what the effects were on World Series odds, if any, resulting from the blockbuster trades we just witnessed. The Dodgers were already flying high, but how do their odds look now after getting Yu Darvish.
Can the Yankees finally leapfrog Boston after getting Sonny Gray?
AL Futures Moves
Regarding contenders in the American League, we'll start off with the Boston Red Sox. While the hole at third base has been worrisome for the AL East leaders, they patched it up with Eduardo Nunez from the Giants in exchange for two right handed pitchers. They also got Addison Reed from the Mets, although he hasn't been consistent recently. At the Westgate in Las Vegas, future odds on the Sox didn't move at all, and at 5Dimes, they actually went from +750 to win it all, to +830. Why? Most likely because their competition made moves and just got that much better.
Case in point, the New York Yankees. They got rid of Tyler Webb for Garrett Cooper earlier in July, but in a huge trade with the White Sox, they acquired Todd Frazier, and right handed pitchers Tommy Kahnle and David Robertson. New York gave up Tyler Clippard, Blake Rutherford, and Ian Clarkin in the deal. Closer to the deadline, the Bronx Bombers snatched up Jaime Garcia. On the deadline, they made their final move and got Sonny Gray from the Athletics.
We aren't nearly as bullish on Gray as the books are. You can check out our reasons for that here. The books, on the other hand have reacted severely, with the Westgate pricing the Yanks at +1000 pre-deadline, to +700 post-deadline, placing them above both the Red Sox and Indians. 5Dimes didn't react as much, with a move from +1350 to +1100, and below Boston and Cleveland.
As for the aforementioned Cleveland Indians, there's really not much to comment on. They are serious contenders, but made almost no moves at the deadline.
They acquired pitcher Joe Smith from the Blue Jays in exchange for two prospects, including Thomas Pannone, which we talk about here. By consequence, Westgate hasn't moved their odds, and 5Dimes made an unsignificant move from +730 to +750.
The Houston Astros weren't very active, only acquiring Francisco Liriano from the Blue Jays. The markets responded negatively, with the Westgate going from +450 to +500, and 5Dimes going from +400 to +430. With their great record, the books could also be taking their regression into account, but either way, it's not a gigantic line move.
NL Futures Moves
Moving onto the National League, the Chicago Cubs made some moves too. Left handed pitcher Justin Wilson and catcher Alex Avila moved over from Detroit. The Westgate had them move from +600 to +700 after the deadlin, arguably not that significant.
The bigger news came well before the deadline. Two weeks prior, the Cubs got their hands on Jose Quintana from the White Sox in exchange for four prospects. Before the trade BetOnline had them at +1000 to win, and +900 after. They did go from -120 to -170 to win the NL Central.
We don't know how Bryce Harper's injury will affect the Washington Nationals going forward, but chances are it'll be a huge blow. Both Westgate and 5Dimes had them at +600 and +650, respectively, before and after the trade deadline. The Nats did acquire closer Brandon Kintzler from Minnesota, which didn't move the markets, but they did bolster their ailing bullpen earlier in the month with Ryan Madson and lefty Sean Doolittle. Not to mention Howie Kendrick, who showed his worth on Sunday night with a walk-off granny.
The Los Angeles Dodgers seem to have made out the best though. While already favored to win the championship, they acquired Yu Darvish to reinforce an already stellar pitching rotation. We talked about the impact that would have and whether it was a good move here, and the markets seem to agree. Westgate moved them from +250 to +225, while 5Dimes went one further, moving from +325 to +275, significantly widening the gap with the Astros.
The Rest of The Crowd
Some other teams that have less chance but still in the running are Colorado and Seattle. The Rockies got Jonathan Lucroy and Pat Neshek at the deadline, but with the Dodgers' great moves, Colorado went from +1800 to +2000. The Mariners got Erasmo Ramirez from Tampa Bay, but still fell from +5000 to +6000.
There's some teams which have almost no chance, so any odds movement, though big, still won't be significant. The Detroit Tigers parted ways with J.D. Martinez, Justin Wilson, and Alex Avila, so naturally fell from +30000 to +50000. By the same token, the Rangers lost Lucroy, Jeremy Jeffress, and most importantly Yu Darvish, and went from +10000 to +30000. Clearly, it's better to bet on sellers right after the trade deadline. This isn't always the case with buyers though.
If you want to bet some futures now that the deadline's over, be sure to head over to Sports Interaction to get the best futures odds, and money lines for upcoming MLB games and tons of other leagues. What do you think this line movement means, and is it accurate?
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