Bellator 192: Rory Macdonald's Last Shot at Stardom
Lima vs Macdonald Fight Breakdown
Macdonald has only lost four times in his 23-fight career: two of those were fights he was winning and the other two were close decisions. The optimist would point to his age: at just 28, Macdonald was still young and still evolving and he'll eventually finish the job. The pessimist would suggest he's good enough to be a contender but not quite good enough to be champion.
Going up against Lima, Macdonald is the decided favourite (-240) to dethrone the Brazilian like he was when he fought Robbie Lawler in a rematch for the UFC welterweight title. This is Macdonald's fight to lose as, on paper, he has a better MMA background and has fought more difficult opponents. Plus, he has the one ability Lima has struggled against: wrestling.
All things considered, Macdonald should be the favourite and should win. But an injury-free Lima (+190), who also trains with one of the best teams in American Top Team, is a fierce underdog not to be overlooked.
The main keys to Macdonald here are his wrestling and head movement. Lima is primarily a Muay Thai fighter and he'll look to slow Macdonald down with his ferocious leg kicks. But he also has punching power like when he one-punched former champion Andrey Koreshkov to reclaim his belt. He can also attack off his back if and when Macdonald takes him down.
Macdonald's weakness has been his striking. Against most fighters, his lack of head movement and defence gets him by but not against elite strikers. Macdonald has patched a lot of this inefficiencies but didn't really get much of a chance to prove it. Level-changing against Lima will be a given and a must.
Prediction: Macdonald doesn't have explosive takedowns but he has good timing and he has enough punching power to set up his wrestling. Lima won't be as loose with his striking due to the threat of the takedown and this is what gives Macdonald the edge as he wins a hard-fought decision.
Our Record: 5-1
Betting Stats & Tidbits:
- 40%: the expected outcome of Macdonald winning the fight by decision - the most predicted outcome in his fight with Lima
- 4-1: Lima's betting record as an underdog; his only loss came against Ben Askren where he opened as a +300 underdog
- 6-1: Macdonald's betting record when he is at least a 2-1 favourite; his only loss came in his first bout against Robbie Lawler where he opened at -265
- 4/2: the combined over/under record for both Macdonald and Lima; both fighters have a 2/1 over/under record in their last three bouts
Bellator 192 Predictions - October 20, 2017
All betting odds via Bodog.
MMA icons Chael Sonnen (+145) and Quinton "Rampage" Jackson (-175) lock horns as the new main event as the first bout of the heavyweight grand prix. This traditional grappler (Sonnen) versus striker (Rampage) bout slightly leans on Rampage due to being a more versatile fighter. Rampage will stuff Sonnen's takedowns and pound him out.
Another fighter to watch is Michael Chandler (-300) who is fighting Goiti Yamauchi (+230). The former lightweight champion lost his title because of injury but has been on a tear. He should be a bigger favourite here but Yamauchi is an elite jiu-jitsu fighter with underrated striking. Given the respect for the dog, Chandler should dominate this fight with his top-control wrestling and heavy hands.
Aaron Pico (-850) is another interesting fighter but with a 1-1 MMA record, there is no chance he is worth his price. His opponent, Shane Kruchten (+575) is a journeyman who could give him trouble if he avoids Pico's power shots and explosive takedowns. That is a huge "if" but might be worth a small shot.
Main Card (Paramount Network, 9 PM ET)
- Welterweight Championship (170 lbs): (C) Douglas Lima (+190) vs Rory Macdonald (-240)
- Heavyweight (265 lbs): Chael Sonnen (+145) vs Rampage Jackson (-175)
- Lightweight (155 lbs): Michael Chandler (-300) vs Goiti Yamauchi (+230)
- Featherweight (145 lbs): Aaron Pico (-850) vs Shane Kruchten (+575)
- Featherweight (145 lbs): Henry Corrales (-110) vs Georgi Karakhanyan (-120)
Canadian Sportsbooks for MMA in 2018
There is plenty of MMA this weekend with UFC 220 also airing at the same time. Whether fans decide to buy the pay-per-view or watch this card for free, they can all head to Canadian sportsbooks to get the best odds on all things MMA.
Read our reviews to find the book that best supports your betting style.
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Believe it or not, you can even find odds on the event happening, which we break down in this piece.