2018 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies
If you read my intro, you can already guess that I'll be playing against Bellafina. In fact, that's a trend for all of my Breeders' Cup Future bets. Roll with short favorites, and you are toast. Promise.
Nothing against Bellafina, but a horse shipping across the country for the first time and attempting to adapt to a new racing surface does not interest me at +250. That's just bad race betting.
On a positive note, once you escape the Bellafina trap, the rest of the odds here are pretty enticing relative to actual chances to win.
- Bellafina +250
- Serengeti Empress +400
- Restless Rider +600
- Sippican Harbor +700
- Jaywalk +600
- Feedback +1200
- Mother Mother +1200
- Brill +1600
- Chasig Yesterday +1600
- Sues Fortune +1600
- Carnival Colors +2000
Quick thoughts: I really liked how Restless Rider won the Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades at Keeneland in her final tuneup. This is a seriously good filly who really enjoys racing at a route of ground - something most of these runners will want no part of. +600 seems reasonable for a horse that is 2 for 2 at Churchill and a second-place effort away from being unbeaten.
Other thoughts and picks
Serengetti Empress put on a freak show last out winning the Grade 2 Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill Downs by open lengths. How good? 19 1/2 lengths good. That's scary for any of her Breeders' Cup Juvenile rivals.
Trainer Tom Amoss knows exactly how to get a horse ready to run on the big days, and it's no exaggeration to say this may be the most talented horse he's ever had. For reference, Serengetti Empress was far from a one-trick pony if you'll pardon the pun. Prior to the Pocahontas, she won the Ellis Park Debutante by 13 1/2-lengths. This is an alpha female type horse.
As much as I like Restless Rider, I cannot play against Serengetti Empress. Forget the big balloon prices. I'll take my +400 on this wager and enjoy what I've been given.
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