ATSSkinner | Mon 12/02/2018 - 19:37 EST

Pittsburgh vs Ottawa NHL Point Spread Odds And Prediction

Pittsburgh vs Ottawa NHL Point Spread Odds And Prediction

2017 Eastern Finals A Distant Memory Now

It's got to feel like forever-ago that Ottawa was just one win against this Pittsburgh team from making the Stanley Cup Finals, but in reality it was a little over eight months ago. Both organizations have seen their fortunes take a downturn this season, but that downturn has been much swifter and steeper in Ottawa. The Sens are basically entering a transition period where it remains to be seen what's left of this current roster post-trade deadline, and unitl that picture becomes clearer, this is a tough team to get behind on the money line.

Ottawa has bucked that notion even with the loss in Toronto, as they've still won four of their last six games overall and paid out +125 or higher on all four of those wins. And while the losses aren't going to continue on forever, this is not a particular spot where'd I'd go looking for a payday on the Sens. Ottawa has home games against Buffalo and the NY Rangers on deck and those are definitely more favorable spots. Pittsburgh has turned it on of late with six wins in their last eight and deserve to be the nearly -300 favourites they are here.

My Team's Next MatchOttawa Senators

Ottawa Senators Vs Pittsburgh Penguins Odds

Ottawa (+230) Vs Pittsburgh (-280): Total: 6

The Pittsburgh Penguins have jumped back up to about where they want to be in the Eastern Conference standings with the slew of victories they've put together, and they've done so on the back of their offensive talent. The Penguins have scored 4+ goals in five of those six wins and they did so against some very good teams like St Louis, Las Vegas, Washington, San Jose, and Minnesota. There is still much to be desired on the defensive end as the Penguins need to tightin things up there, but that shouldn't be much of a concern against Ottawa.

The Senators rank 3rd last in the league in terms of goals allowed per game (3.39) so they really are jumping into a hot fire for this game. The Eastern Conference Finals series between these two was much different as the bulk of those games stayed 'under' the total with five of the seven having 5 goals or less scored, but as I've already touched on, these two teams are very different to the ones that met last spring. The lone meeting this year was a 3-1 Penguins win, but that was also back in mid-November when Ottawa still had hope for what could have been in 2017-18.

Ottawa Vs Pittsburgh Selection: Over 6 Goals (-110)

As good as it looks to take the Penguins on the ML here, I'm not really interested in laying all that chalk with that price. Getting creative with that play and taking Pittsburgh -1.5 goals or even on the 3-way line (ie win in regulation) are the better way to go if that's the route you do decide to take. Ottawa had their mini-run with four wins in five games and now it's time for reality to smack them in the face again as the "expected" losses start to happen again.

But, as a form of being a little cautious in that regard in case the Sens do show up and give Pittsburgh plenty to think about, I believe the total is the better play here. I already touched on Pittsburgh's scoring prowess of late, but the Sens have netted at least three goals themselves in four of their last five, and Pittsburgh has allowed 3+ in four of their last five games as well. With Ottawa on a 12-5 O/U run in their last 17 against a winning team, and Pittsburgh a perfect 4-0 O/U in their last four at home, look for the red light to be lit early and often as these two teams combine for 7+ goals here when all is said and done.

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