Kent Tukeli | Wed 25/04/2018 - 11:54 EDT

Bruins vs Maple Leafs: Toronto Fights Historic Burden

Bruins vs Maple Leafs: Toronto Fights Historic Burden

Bruins vs Maple Leafs Game 7 Odds

My Team's Next MatchToronto Maple Leafs

Moneyline: Toronto (+130) :: Boston (-155)

Similar to the rest of the series, the Toronto Maple Leafs enter game seven considered the team less likely to win. In this case, Toronto's considered a moderate underdog with a +130 moneyline for tonight's clash against the Bruins, despite a solid win at the Air Canada Centre in game six. At this juncture, Boston's moneyline appears to focus on the Bruins as home favorites with the personnel required to pull off a must-win game after losing two in a row. As such, their -155 doesn’t offer much value.

Puckline: Toronto +1.5 (-185) :: Boston -1.5 (+160)

Boston’s won all three games against the Leafs by a margin of two or more goals, which makes the Bruins puckline one of the best values during the seven-game series. This evening, the Bruins feature a -160 puckline, providing a decent payout for a relatively likely outcome. Toronto’s puckline will be the underdog line, with a -185 odds attached. The Maple Leafs puckline greatly reduces risk, but the payout isn’t worth the bother.

Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-110) :: Under 5.5 (-110)

Game six featured the first defensive battle of the series, with a 3-1 Toronto victory failing to beat a 5.5 goal total. Previous games featured total scoring of six goals or more, favoring the over throughout the first five games. Game seven will feature an over/under of 5.5, implying a second consecutive low-scoring match. Certainly, both teams have solid defense and goaltenders, but there’s too much scoring talent to expect a game ending with five or fewer goals.

Bruins vs Maple Leafs Betting Trends

Game six was an impressive victory for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Rather than fall into old habits of defensive inadequacy, Toronto limited the number of opportunities for the Bruins top snipers through disciplined physical play and careful attention to defensive positioning. Instead of a deluge of shots on goal to finish the third period, a desperate Boston club was outshot by Toronto 7-8 in the final frame. Compare this with game five, where the Leafs escaped elimination during a furious flow of 20 shots against to end the match.

  • Mitch Marner leading Leafs scorer with two goals, eight points.
  • David Pastrnak Bruins best scorer with four goals, eleven points.
  • Marchand, Bergeron, Pastrnak have -16 rating and zero points in three losses.
  • Leafs reduced shots on goal in game six with increased block shots.
  • Freddie Andersen stopped 74 of 78 shots in last two games.

The Maple Leafs also reduced the number of power play opportunities gifted to the Bruins, giving up two man advantages in game six, compared to six power plays for Boston in game five. This allowed the Leafs best skaters to contribute throughout the game, instead of being forced to sit on the bench and watch the penalty killers fight for an entire period. When the PK sits, players like Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner have the opportunity to contribute during even strength and power play situations.

Boston needs to plan for Marner, who’s been the best Toronto forward during the 2018 NHL playoffs. The Bruins also require a strong game from the Bergeron-Marchand-Pastrnak line, along with solid goaltending from Tuukka Rask, who hasn’t played well in elimination matches. Secondary scoring also looks like an issue for the B’s, who haven’t received much production from the likes of Nash, Backes and Krejci. All-in-all, the Bruins overwhelming advantage over the Leafs during the first half of the series has waned, giving Toronto a chance to steal game seven.

Bruins vs Maple Leafs Game 7 Prediction

Only 28 teams have rallied from a 3-1 deficit in the NHL playoffs to emerge with the series win. This scenario has occurred 292 times during the history of the league, showing a 10% success rate for the underdog. Incredibly, the Leafs currently scenario repeats their Bruins matchup during the 2013 playoffs, when Boston watched a 3-1 series lead erode into game seven. Remarkably, the Leafs were in the driver’s seat to clinch with a 4-1 lead in the third period, but the Bruins scored three goals in the latter half of the third period to tie the game, before finishing the series in overtime.

There’s been significant turnover for the Leafs roster since that terrible fall from grace. The Bruins have retained many of the top players from their last Stanley Cup finals run, adding youthful stars like David Pastrnak and Torey Krug to the fold. Boston’s depth was the reason they were touted as Stanley Cup favorites, but the Bruins found themselves losing two in a row instead of clinching the series. Now, the Leafs hold momentum as they head into game seven, which could be key to emerging with a series win.

History repeats on a macro scale, but the individual details change over time, including context. The Leafs have earned the right to play with nothing to lose, while the Bruins will experience extreme humiliation if they lose three straight to bow out of the playoffs. Toronto genuinely appears to have discovered a defensive edge, preventing Bruins forwards from peppering Andersen with too many high-quality scoring chances. Wager on a Leafs moneyline victory at +130 to clinch the series. Pick over on 5.5 goals.  

Bet Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline (+130)

Category : NHL

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