Who will be this year's NFL's MVP?
Though we are already into the NFL season, BET365 as well as others will still have updated NFL MVP odds throughout the season. So lets take a look at some potential options for a nice futures cash.
NFL MVP Betting Overlook and Prediction
- 01Odds from BET365 prior to Opening kickoff
- 02AARON RODGERS (+500)
- 03TODD GURLEY (+2500) AND JARED GOFF (+2800)
- 04RUSSELL WILSON (+1600) AND DESHAUN WATSON (+2000)
Odds from BET365 prior to Opening kickoff
If the NFL MVP were ever to be treated as a life time achievement award, the I present to you the perfect candidate at +1200
THE CASE FOR DREW BREES (+1200)
In Drew Brees' 12 seasons with the New Orleans Saints his average season line has been 4,841 Yards, 34 TDs, 14.5 INTs.
Among those 12 seasons have been five seasons of 5000+ passing yards, six seasons of a passer rating over 101.0, six double digit win seasons and four division championships. Yet Drew Brees has never won an NFL Regular season MVP. Can this be the year?
The MVP winner usually goes to the player who had the best season on one of the best teams in that regular season.
10 of the last 11 winners have been quarterbacks, and in 8 of those years the winner was named Rodgers, Manning or Brady.
So if Drew Brees can lead the Saints to another 12-13 win season, division title, and potentially the #1 seed in the NFC how can you deny him this award considering the body of work he has put in?
The NFC is ridiculousy top heavy with 7 or 8 teams that can put up double digit win totals. And that's not to rule out any AFC players, but whomever can shine in the loaded National Football Conference would certainly sway voters.
In the NFC South, New Orleans will have to overcome the Bucs, who by many accounts do not look like a good team, and the Falcons and Panthers who both made the playoffs last season as this division produced half of the NFC's post season teams.
The Falcons look on course to regress after last night's season opener, and Carolina will start this season behind the 8 ball with a host of Offensive line injuries that may not rectify itself.
New Orleans on the the defensive side of the ball drafted a rookie pass rusher to play opposite Cam Jordan, and added slot corner Patrick Robinson from the Eagles to bolster their secondary. With an improved roster in what feels like a slightly easier division than last season, the Saints can earn one of the top 2 seeds in the NFC, and if Drew Brees just has his usual ho-hum season of 4500/35/15 he will be a prime candidate to win the MVP, and perhaps even be the sentimental choice.
Last season, Carson Wentz was looking like the easy consensus until he got injured, leaving only Brady and potentially Todd Gurley as the only choices. As this award is usually dominated by the quarter position, the Golden Boy took it down.
Carson Wentz will miss the first few games of this season so we can comfortably rule him out. But another elite QB is healed up and ready to assert his greatness once again.
AARON RODGERS (+500)
According to a vocal minority, Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback to ever play the game from a talent standpoint. It's hard to argue this, but at only +500 Rodgers does not offer the value we want.
The Packers will be good, but potentially not even the best team in the NFC North where the Vikings will be slugging it out with them for the division title. If the formula for MVP requires a top 2 seed in the conference then Rodgers' path looks a little tougher than you would like.
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TODD GURLEY (+2500) AND JARED GOFF (+2800)
The Los Angeles Rams have assembled a team capable of beimg the 1 seed in the NFC and therefore would be an obvious choice to produce an MVP Candidate.
However with two players in their offensive backfield splitting votes this feels like a wasted bet to take either of them.
So then who else can win this award at a price that offers outstanding value?
RUSSELL WILSON (+1600) AND DESHAUN WATSON (+2000)
So if the most conventional path to MVP is to be the best player on the best team, the road less travelled would be for a player on a compromised team to excel to a level that carries them beyond what anyone would have thought to be their ceiling. And 2 players who could do that this season are Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson.
The Seahawks will no longer be the imposing defensive side they were known for with the Legion of Boom. On offense, they lost Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson. Both starting wideouts are not 100% healthy, their rookie 1st round running back gained 15 pounds in the offseason and they have failed to improve the O-line which has been the sore thumb on this team during their entire winning run. And with all that being said they could still win enough games to make the playoffs because Russell Wilson is just that good. In the society dominated by Fantasy football, Russell Wilson was last season's highest scoring player and may need to duplicate that just to win games for this less than stellar Seahawks side. If they can get to 10 wins and reach the wildcard to the back of an insane Russell Wilson season, he will be in the conversation.
And on the subject of Fantasy Football, before a season ending ACL injury in practice last season, Deshaun Watson was lighting up the NFL statiscally and looking otherworldly while doing it. The Texans have a horrible offensive line meaning that just like Russell Wilson, if the Texans are to be a playoff team this season, it will be on the shoulders of a young, dynamic quarterback that takes them to a level that they would not attain otherwise.
You can follow me on twitter @zahir_gilani