Kent Tukeli | Sat 03/02/2018 - 06:37 EST

Tom Brady v. Nick Foles: Will David Slay Goliath In Super Bowl LII?

Tom Brady v. Nick Foles: Will David Slay Goliath In Super Bowl LII?

Patriots Big QB Advantage In Super Bowl LII

There’s no arguing if Tom Brady’s the greatest quarterback of all time. In addition to owning five Super Bowl rings, Brady’s earned four MVPs, breaking Joe Montana’s record last year by engineering the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history. Since Brady displays zero signs of slowing down, the quarterback matchup appears to be extremely lopsided, despite the steady, mistake-free playoff history of Nick Foles.

Tom Brady Vital Stats

2017 Regular Season

13-3-0, 102.8 passer rating, 32 TDs - 8 Int, 4577 yards - 66.3 Cmp%

Career Regular Season

196-55-0, 97.6 passer rating, 488 TDs – 160 Int, 66159 yards – 63.9 Cmp%

Brady enjoyed another superb regular season, finishing tops in the NFL for passing yards, passing attempts and passing yards per game. Tom maintained a mostly clean sheet, allowing only 8 interceptions all season. Over his extensive career with the Patriots, Tom’s top four in regular season passing yards, completions and TD passes. Since time only seems to sharpen his instincts, there’s a chance Brady will manage to earn top spot in major career categories when he hangs up his cleats.

2018 Playoffs

2-0, 105.0 passer rating, 5 TDs – 0 Int, 627 yards – 67.0 Cmp%

Career Playoffs

27-9, 90.1 passer rating, 68 TDs – 31 Int, 9721 yards – 63.0 Cmp%

Tom’s the most experienced big game QB in NFL history, atop many of the most important passer stats in the Super Bowl. Brady’s thrown 15 Super Bowl TDs, 2,071 yards and 207 completed passes. In terms of total playoff production, Brady’s thrown the most completions, will likely leap into first for passing yards and might finish ahead of Joe Montana’s playoff TD pass record of 45 TDs in 23 games.

Perhaps most important, Tom Brady’s been the master of fourth quarter comebacks, perhaps at his best when the Patriots have no option but to score.

Nick Foles Vital Stats

2017 Regular Season

2-1-0, 79.5 passer rating, 5 TDs - 2 Int, 537 yards – 56.4 Cmp%

Career Regular Season

22-17-0, 87.4 passer rating, 61 TDs – 29 Int, 9752 yards – 60.1 Cmp%

Nick Foles had the misfortune of signing with the St. Louis Rams when Jeff Fisher was still coach. Fisher drained the fun out of Foles pivot play, creating a nightmare season for Nick in 2015, finishing with a 69.0 passer rating. This wiped out all the achievements he racked up during his second year in the NFL, when he earned respect as a Pro Bowl QB. Foles ended up as a reserve pivot after his disastrous 2015 campaign, serving as a rarely used backup despite his previous success.

2018 Playoffs

2-0, 122.1 passer rating, 3 TDs – 0 Int, 598 yards – 77.8 Cmp%

Career Playoffs

2-1, 116.4 passer rating, 5 TDs – 0 Int, 793 yards – 75.0 Cmp%

A small sample size skews Nick Foles playoff stats into the stratosphere. He’s been nearly perfect during the 2018 playoffs, avoiding picks while tossing a trio of TDs during the destruction of the Vikings. Nick’s 122.1 passer rating is partially the result of a 77.8 percent completion rate, which represents an unsustainable trend in the long run. Foles has executed the Eagles game plan well, benefitting from a Pro Bowl o-line and sharp play calling by Coach Pederson and offensive coordinator Frank Reich. 

Super Bowl LII Quarterback Props & Predictions.

Recommended picks:

Super Bowl LII MVP

Brady -130

Foles +335 

First QB To Pass For 100+ Yards

Brady -165

Foles +120

Total Passing Yards - Tom Brady 

Over +285.5 (-140)

Under +285.5 (+100) 

Total Passing Yards - Nick Foles

Over +232.5 (-205)

Under +232.5 (+145)

Total Pass Completions - Tom Brady

Over +25.0 -190

Under +25.0 +135

Total Pass Completions - Nick Foles

Over +21.5 -130

Under +21.5 -110

Total Touchdown Passes - Tom Brady

Over +2.0 -155

Under +2.0 +110

Total Touchdown Passes - Nick Foles

Over +2.0 +165

Under +2.0 -230

From a statistical standpoint, Nick Foles represents a fascinating matchup against Tom Brady. Foles impressive accuracy and stewardship of the football suggests a smaller competitive gap between Nick and Tom than expected. Despite excellent playoff numbers, Nick Foles has never played in a football game of this magnitude, while this is Brady’s eighth trip to the Super Bowl.

Unlike Peyton Manning during his Super Bowl win with the Broncos, Brady isn't waning at all because of advanced age. Tom's physical conditioning appears steady while his decision-making ages like wine. His arm may not have the same zip, but his ability to hit specific windows gives his targets a chance to make a play more often than not. Anything can happen in a single game championship, but Brady losing the quarterback battle to Foles would be a tremendous upset.

New England and Philadelphia feature two of the best defenses in the NFL, both battle-tested in the playoffs. As such, Super Bowl LII appears more likely to develop into a defensive battle. Neither Foles nor Brady will be likely to light up the skies, which makes the under bet preferable for many quarterback prop wagers.

Category : NFL

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