Titans vs Patriots AFC Divisional Playoff Preview
Aiming for a third Super Bowl win in four years, and their franchise sixth, New England is back in the playoffs for 15th time over 17 seasons. Going back-to-back, after their epic comeback win vs Atlanta a year ago, would tie the Patriots with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the most Super Bowl titles. Tennessee is back in the postseason for the first time since 2008 and they are facing the Patriots in the second season for the second time after they lost 17-14 during the 2004 Divisional Round.
My Team's Next MatchNew England Patriots
Rolling along, as one of the most successful franchises in pro sports, New England recovered from a rocky 2-2 start to post a 13-3 record. Tom Brady & Crew opened with three of their first four games at home and lost two of them – to Kansas City 42-27 in Week 1 and 33-30 vs Carolina in Week 4. In between, the Patriots topped New Orleans (36-20) on the road and Houston (36-33) at Gillette Stadium. The Pats closed on an 11-1 run with a 27-20 Week 14 loss in Miami as the lone blemish.
Expecting a solid 2017 NFL campaign in Tennessee - we backed the Titans to win the AFC South in our Super Bowl futures section. Also feeling Jacksonville (10-6) would turn things around, but not seeing the curve being so sharp, the Titans (9-7) ended up second behind the Jaguars and earned the AFC #6 seed. Led by QB Marcus Mariota, who battled a hamstring issue all season, Tennessee opened at 8-4 but tumbled late in the season as they lost three of four by a 74-68 combined count.
Please Note: These lines are as of 4:30 PM ET on 10/01/18. Check our odds widget above for the most up to date prices. As a bonus we list the best bookmakers in the betting business below.
New England (13-3) was chalk in all 16 matches this season. The losses were at Kansas City (+455) at Carolina (+405) and at Miami (+400). Cappers paid a lot of dough to back the Patriots in those contests and they most certainly busted up a ton of parlay wagers. Mind-boggling at times, New England has played in 34 playoff games over 17 seasons dating back to 2001. Against the money line, in Division Final duels, the Patriots are 11-2 and they've won in this round six years in a row.
Playing in his third NFL season, Mariota showed poise during his playoff debut as the Titans posted a 22-21 Wild Card win on the road in Kansas City. Down 21-3 in the third quarter, Mariota’s first career playoff TD pass was to himself (the first in postseason history) and it was all downhill for the Chiefs after that. TEN scored 19 unanswered points over the final 21:44 of the second half. That upset win, as +500 dogs at Bodog, was the Titans first as straight up pups during NFL 2017.
Point Spread: Patriots -13 (-115) ATS @ Bet635
Very consistent, after Week 6, the Pats were a profitable 11-5 ATS overall this season. After failing to cover during their first three games at home - Patriots ATS tickets cashed over the next five fights in Foxboro. While winning their last six Divisional round contests SU, New England is 5-1 against the line. The lone non-cover was versus the Ravens as they beat Baltimore 35-31 as -7 point chalk. The Pats covered a huge -16.5 spread when they humbled Houston 34-16 last year in this round.
Tennessee won straight up and against the spread last week - we were on the right side of the ATS price. That is rare air as the Titans went 0-4 as underdogs during the regular season - losing all four matches outright. Not sure why they refused to feature the talent of RB Derrick Henry more in the regular season - an injury to Demarco Murray gave the former Alabama Crimson Tide stud center stage and he rolled over the Chiefs. Henry gained 191 total yards and scored the Titans second TD.
Totals: OVER 47 (-110) O/U @ Bodog
Always tagged with monster totals, Patriots contests had a 49.3 average O/U line. However, with seven of their matches totalling just 41 points, New England games went OVER just seven times. The silver lining is five of those contests were at Gillette Stadium including a 36-33 Week 3 win over Houston - when the Texans were still stout on defense. The Pats last six Divisional playoff duels averaged 58.6 PPG and their 27-20 win versus the Chiefs two years ago was the lowest final score.
Saddled with low lines, 43.2 was their regular season average, Titans tussles went OVER the game total nine times this season. Four of those were as visitors in Pittsburgh (57), San Francisco (48), Houston (71) and Jacksonville (53) and all of them went above the 47 point price on this contest. Each team played a horrible half of football last week, as the Chiefs got shutout in the second half and the Titans put up three first half points to keep the 22-21 final score just under the 44.5 total.
Titans at Patriots Prediction and Final Thoughts
As dialled in New England betting fans, we are having a tough time seeing the Patriots imploding here. In the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era the Patriots are 13-4 with an extra week to prepare during the regular season. Make it 19-4 if you add in their past six Division Final wins. However, the great equalizer is the big numbers that are attached to this matchup. With their best value being found at SportsInteraction, the Patriots have a -880 ML while the Titans can be bought at +630 SU. Apart from high-rollers, who are willing to drop a wad on NEP - there is limited value in the money lines.
ATS prices and juice vary at our top rated CSB NFL sportsbooks as Bodog has the Brady Bunch at -14 (-105), Bet365 has them at -13 (-115) and SIA is the most expensive at -13.5 (-115). Consensus across the board, the total is set at 47 with -110 vig. Our main concern is the Titans burning clock time with heavy doses of Henry and Mariota scrambles - which would limit New England's chances on offense. That said, if the Pats get up early, the Titans will have a tough time playing from behind. Feeling the score may mirror the Houston game last year - Back NEP Straight Up, ATS and OVER.
Bottom Line: Rob Gronkowski, Brady and Belichick are difference makers here. Agree or disagree? We encourage readers to post their comments and picks on our Facebook and Twitter pages.
Category : NFL News
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