NFL Week 12 Predictions
It's Thanksgiving, and it's time to give thanks for this slate of games. Dallas hosts Washington, in what is sure to be a high scoring NFC East spectacle, while Indianapolis will either get Andrew Luck back or have to go with their backup in the late game. Picks and predictions for the Thanksgiving games and Sunday's card are below.
NFL Odds Week 12
We did well last week, going 4-2-1. Tampa Bay and Buffalo got the outright win as dogs, the Cowboys won and covered, and the Saints did us well covering by 0.5. Our losses were on the Rams, who were a wild card in that situation with Goff, and the Packers, who got decimated by Washington. Thankfully, it still only counts as one loss. Our push was on the Jaguars game. We will try to make it yet another winning week in a row.
Week 12 NFL Predictions
We have a larger card than usual this week, with 8 games for you. The Washington Redskins take on the red hot Dallas Cowboys in an NFC East thriller before the Colts host the Steelers on Thanksgiving day. On Sunday, we have the Jags traveling to face the Bills, the Saints hosting the Rams, 49ers against Dolphins, the Patriots vs the Jets in an AFC East clash, San Diego facing Houston, and the Sunday night prime time game, with identical records in the AFC West, the Kansas City Chiefs against the Denver Broncos. Let's get into it!
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills Prediction
BET BUFFALO BILLS -7.5 AT SPORTSINTERACTION. Jacksonville Jaguars' assistant head coach Doug Marrone returns to Buffalo after leaving them as head coach, and Rex Ryan wants to make this more painful for him than it has to be. The Buffalo Bills are licking their chops at the prospect of putting the beat down on this 2-8 Jags team so that they themselves can get above .500. It will be just the 2nd time since 2009 that they would reach a 6-5 record. As a bonus they'll be able to get revenge for the 34-31 loss to the Cats in London. Eliminated from the playoffs, the Jaguars are only playing for pride.
This Buffalo team isn't elite by any stretch of the imagination, but against a QB as ineffective as Blake Bortles, this will be an easy win for them. Bortles is tied for most interceptions in the league with 13. If LeSean McCoy is healthy and recovered from surgery to play, they will be good to go on offense as well, despite the Jags being 7th in the league in that category. Their horrendous turnover differential erases any edge they might have in defense.
Trends are favoring the Bills as well, as Jacksonville is only 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 after an ATS loss, and have the same record for their last 8 road games. They are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 overall as well. Buffalo cruises along, going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after a straight up and ATS win, and are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 at home. The Jags might hang around within 6 or 7, but will fall apart in the 4th with the Bills getting the late cover. Take the Buffalo Bills at -7.5.
Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints Prediction
BET NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -7 AT SPORTSINTERACTION. Will Drew Brees be able to penetrate this stingy Los Angeles Rams defense, which allows just 18.7 points per game? Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald will be an obstacle, with 31 tackles, 5 sacks, and a forced fumble in 10 games. Goff is set to play his first road game in the NFL, but after a lackluster 17/31, 134 yard pass game last week, we can't expect much from him this time. Their defense will have to do the work.
Averaging 28.5 points per game, the New Orleans Saints fancy themselves up for the task. They haven't been playing that badly, but special teams have let them down the last couple of weeks, leading to devastating losses that could have easily been wins. Climbing out of a 0-3 start to the season, the Saints fought back to 4-4, but the Broncos and Panthers took advantage of special teams errors to push New Orleans back under .500, to 4-6. They will get back on track here, barring any more special teams mishaps. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games between these two, and the Saints are actually still 6-1 ATS in their last 7 overall, while the Rams are only 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 overall. Take the New Orleans Saints at -7.
San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins Prediction
BET MIAMI DOLPHINS -7.5 AT SPORTSINTERACTION. The San Francisco 49ers season is pretty much over, and they know it. They are 1-9 overall and 0-4 on the road. After their first game (and first win), they went on a horrendous 9 game losing streak. 10 in a row would be a franchise record. Coming off a loss to the Patriots, this game isn't looking up for them either. The Niners rank last in the league in points allowed, with 31.3 per game, and total yards allowed, with 431.3 yards per game. Offense clearly isn't their forte either, ranking 30th with 309.6 yards per game.
The Miami Dolphins, on the other hand, are a team going in the opposite direction. They have won 5 in a row now. This is partly because they are relying on running back Jay Ajayi more now. Tannehill is not an elite enough QB to hold up this team himself. Ajayi is tied for 6th in rushing yards, with 802 yards. 685 of those were during Dolphins wins. Facing a 49ers rush defense that ranks last in the league, with 179.5 allowed rushing yards per game, this will be J-Train's show. The Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5, meaning when they win, they cover, and chances are they take this game, so expect them to cover as well. Take the Miami Dolphins at -7.5.
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys Prediction
BET WASHINGTON REDSKINS +7 AT SPORTSINTERACTION. This Thanksgiving NFC East battle will be one for the ages. The Dallas Cowboys are playing outstanding offense, gaining at least 400 total yards in 8 straight games, with QB Dak Prescott passing for 17 TDs and running for 4. Their rushing game isn't lacking either. RB Ezekiel Elliot is actually leading the league in rush yards with 1102. They already beat the Washington Redskins too this season. This should be a lock right? Wrong.
The Redskins aren't pipsqueaks. They beat a healthy Packers team last week 42-24, with 515 total yards. RB Robert Kelley rushed for over 100 yards, while Pierre Garcon and Jamison Crowder had over 100 receiving yards each. They are 6-3-1, and hardcore rivals with the Cowboys, who are set to regress a bit here. Washington has been on a hot streak since losing to Dallas, going 6-1-1, and that could easily continue here. This game should be 3 or 4 points apart, so getting 7 in this situation is a steal.
Head to head, the trends heavily favor the Redskins. The road team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last 5 between these two, and the underdog is a whopping 28-9 ATS in the last 37. The Redskins specifically, have gone 8-1 ATS in their last 9 in Dallas, and 14-6 ATS in their last 20 against Dallas overall. Dallas is a revitalized team, but this is a prime letdown spot for the Cowboys on a national holiday. We are at least giving thanks that we can get the Redskins at such a good price. Take the Washington Redskins as +7.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets Prediction
BET NEW YORK JETS AT +8 BODOG. Is there any stopping Tom Brady? The New England Patriots QB could get his 200th win on Sunday, tied for second of all time with Brett Favre, with only Payton Manning having more. He was also named AFC offensive player of the week... for the 27th time. This ties him with Manning. What's more, Brady can become just the 5th QB to reach 60 000 passing yards. He needs just 57. You know what they say about players coming off milestones though. Fade them.
There aren't many circumstances where we would go against Brady, but this is a prime let down spot for this team. The New York Jets have been spiraling out of control, but this is a game they will wake up for. It's an AFC East divisional game, and the Jets have always played the Pats well. The underdog is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games together, and more specifically, the Pats are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the Jets, and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 in New York. The home team is also 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. It might be dumb to go against the Pats, but getting more than a TD at home in a divisional game in this spot is too good to pass up. Look for Brady to struggle. Take the New York Jets at +8.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts Prediction
BET PITTSBURGH STEELERS -9 AT BODOG. All eyes will be on the Indianapolis Colts on Thanksgiving evening, as there is no confirmation on whether QB Andrew Luck will start. He has been placed on concussion protocol after being injured in Sunday's win over the Titans. That means he will not be able to play unless he recovers, but back luck for Luck, this is a short week. Chances say he won't recover, and the markets agree, as the Steelers have shot up to 9 point favorites. This is because backup Scott Tolzien will most likely get the nod. Tolzien's last game a year ago saw him only throw for one completion of 4 yards. If he starts, it could be a long day for the Colts. Most other teams could be able to rally if their main QB is out, but this Colts team is Andrew Luck. Without him, they will sputter on offense.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are sitting at 5-5, and looking to gain a foothold in their weak division to tie the first place Ravens. This Steelers team had been underachieving, but their win against the Browns was just what they needed to get the juices flowing. LeVeon Bell will be able to keep rolling off his 201 yard game last week. The Colts are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 after a straight up and ATS win. The Steelers admittedly haven't been that much better, but this is where they turn the season around. They had the Browns last week. This game will be just as easy. Take the Pittsburgh Steelers at -9.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos Prediction
BET KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +3 AT SPORTSINTERACTION. This Sunday Night Football matchup will be one for the ages. Tied for second in the AFC West, both teams sit below the first place Oakland Raiders. The Denver Broncos will surely have their mojo going, after having the franchise's old Lombardi trophies on display for them in the locker room. They are also rested, coming off a bye-week, while the Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a loss to the Buccaneers. Trevor Siemian isn't a star by any means, but he's still a solid QB in his first year with the team.
The Chiefs will continue to fly under the radar for this game. Andy Reid's post bye record is still a reality, and should play a part here. Kansas City is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after an ATS loss, meaning it's bounce back time. They are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Broncos are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against divisional rivals. This game will either be a Kansas City runaway, or a slow paced, close game. Either way, Kansas City getting points here is a good play because of the situation. Take the Kansas City Chiefs at +3.
San Diego Chargers @ Houston Texans Prediction
BET SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -1.5 AT BODOG. Coming of a frustrating loss on primetime, in which they gave up a 7 point lead in the 4th and then even failed to cover, the Houston Texans return from Mexico City and might run into even more problems. This is a must-win game for them, so they can take advantage of what is already perceived to be a Colts loss, and stay top of their division. The Texans tend to fall apart late in games, being outscored 41-9 in the 4th in their last 4 games. They are defensively ranked 5th in the league in total yards allowed, even without JJ Watt, but it's the offense that isn't coming together late in games. With a trip back to Houston, the altitude shift, and the disappointing loss, this isn't a good spot for this Houston team.
The San Diego Chargers have a worse record, at 4-6, but have been turning things around. As stated in previous weeks, their record isn't a good reflection of the team. They have a losing record, but positive point differential. All the games they lose are by less than a score, and they have had obscenely bad luck in 4th quarters. The Chargers will need a miracle to catch up to the Broncos and Chiefs in their division, but we often see teams who need it less get the win anyway. They have the Texans' number anyway, going a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against them. They are also a stunning 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games, and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 overall. Situationally, they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after a straight up loss. Where the line is now tells the whole story. Take the San Diego Chargers at -1.5.
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