Matthew Manouli | Thu 17/11/2016 - 07:38 EST

NFL Week 11 Predictions

NFL Week 11 Predictions

It's Week 11 in the NFL and we have value picks and predictions for the top games of the week. Jared Goff makes his debut to try and revitalize a struggling Rams offense, and the Cowboys look to go 9-1 against the Ravens, as big favorites. It begins Thursday with an NFC South matchup between the 3rd place Saints and last place Panthers.

NFL Odds Week 11

Results / FixturesNFL

It was a good week for us in Week 10, as we went 5-2 ATS. The Ravens hit for us on Thursday night, while everyone's money was on Cleveland. Kansas City also did us well, winning outright in Carolina, keeping Andy Reid's post-bye week record clean, and effectivelyacting as a wall for the Panthers' progress this season. The Cowboys were an easy pick as dogs against a now mediocre Steelers team, and even though we got the Texans at a bad number, they still cashed for us. The Bengals also hit for us on Monday Night Football, and that +2.5 was key, as they were bet all the way down to -1. Our losses were on Green Bay, which let us down, and the Saints, who could have won, but gave it up late against the Broncos. On to Week 11.

Week 11 NFL Predictions

This week, we have another 7 games for you. The Buccaneers are in Kansas City trying to give the Chiefs their first home loss of the season, the Ravens will try to cool down the red hot Cowboys, the Lions host the reeling Jaguars, the Packers try to get to .500 on the road at Washington for the Sunday night game, the Dolphins spend the week in California to take on the Rams, Buffalo and Cincinnati try to salvage their season, and it all kicks off with an NFC South matchup with the Saints and Panthers on Thursday night. Let's get into it!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Kansas City Chiefs Prediction


The Kansas City Chiefs are looking to defend their 10 game winning streak at Arrowhead on Sunday, and currently 7.5 point favorites, books are confident they'll do it. Coach Andy Reid's post-bye record says it all, and explains the high line. Should Kansas City be that favored though. This could be a tough spot for them. Coming off a hard fought, come from behind, record breaking game against the Panthers, this is a prime let down game for the Chiefs. Their great +14 turnover differential, first in the league, is what's keeping them competitive. They have scored 72 points off turnovers, but that won't last forever. Look for a bit of regression on that as well.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are also coming off a win, but it was much more comfortable against a lackluster Chicago team. Something else to look at is that the Bucs have a 4 game win streak against the Chiefs. It could mean nothing, but how often do we see spots like this where the large favorite lets us down. 

The Chiefs also aren't great at home, going 1-6 ATS in their last 7 homes games. They are also 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after an ATS win. Tampa's streak might come to an end on Sunday afternoon, but getting more than a touchdown, they are the play here. Take the Buccaneers at +7.5

Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys Prediction


First place in the AFC North faces first place in the NFC East, as the Dallas Cowboys look to sweep that division with a win here. After dispatching of the Bengals, Browns, and Steelers, the Baltimore Ravens are left. Even though Tony Romo is healthy, it's clear that the franchise is getting behind Dak Prescott to run the show going forward. The team is ranked 5th in total offense, behind Dak's 2339 passing yards and 14 touchdowns. The main story of this game will be the running game. Dallas is ranked 2nd in the league in run offense, behind running back Ezekiel Elliot's 1005 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns. The Ravens however, are the best in the league in run defense, allowing just 71.3 rushing yards per game. Dallas is also, surprisingly, the only team in the league to have never beaten the Ravens.

The 7 point line tells the story in this game. The books are expecting the Cowboys to take control. The Ravens' poor offense will do them in, as they will have to rely on Joe Flacco. Not only that, they are still only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall, while the Cowboys are covering machines, going a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8. They are also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after a straight up and ATS win, and 20-7 ATS in their last 27 after allowing more than 350 total yards in their last game. This rejuvenated Cowboys team will go far this season, and there's no reason to jump off them now. We had them last week and we will keep riding that horse. Take the Dallas Cowboys at -7.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions Prediction


The gutter of the AFC South takes on the Detroit Lions, in what could be a more interesting game than advertised. The Lions' last division title was in 2013, and this year could see them take it again, as the Packers aren't playing like a division winning team, and the Vikings seem to be in decline. Matthew Stafford is adept at building 4th quarter comebacks, and each of their wins has been due to one. With that being said, and if that scenario happens again, can they cover this high a number? It's not likely.

The Jacksonville Jaguars aren't anything to write home about, sitting at 2-7 now after their loss to the Texans, but they kept it close in that loss, 24-21, and even against the Kansas City Chiefs, who are now 7-1, in a 19-14 loss. The Lions aren't the type of team to win this by more than a touchdown. Further supporting this, is that 70-75 percent of the public is on Detroit, but the line has either stayed the same or gone to 6.5. We are siding with the sharps on this play. The Jags will keep either upset or keep it close like their last two weeks. Take the Jacksonville Jaguars at +7. 

Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins Prediction


The Washington Redskins are playing phenominally so far this season, on a 5-1-1 run. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is their main offensive weapon, with a 66.9 completion rate on 2716 yards. He is that good because of his gallery of receivers, headed by Jamison Crowder, Jordan Reid, and Pierre Garcon. 6 different players have at least 26 receptions this season.

The Green Bay Packers, on the other hand, are struggling. Without an effective running game, Aaron Rodgers is the team's only option, and he is ranked bottom half in passer rating. Losing this game would put a serious damper on their playoff hopes. The last time they missed the postseason was in 2008, so Mike McCarthy will be sure to give everything he has for this game.

His job might be on the line. While there is friction between himself and Rodgers, the Packers will most likely make a push and win this game, but still fail to reach the playoffs. The possible return of Clay Matthews will also have an impact and help improve the Packer defense, which was abysmal last week against the Titans.

They are an up and down team, going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after a loss, 35-16 ATS in their last 51 after allowing more than 350 total yards in their last game, and 36-17-1 ATS in their last 54 after getting less than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Redskins are only 9-25-2 ATS in their last 36 at home against a team with a losing road record.

The Packers should sneak in a win here and then continue to flounder. Washington is a good team, but this 5-1-1 run will get bumped down to something more realistic. The last time these two teams met in last season's Wild Card game, Washington was on a hot streak, while the Packers were cold. In case you don't remember, the Packers went on to dominate the game. Look for the same pattern to repeat itself. Take the Green Bay Packers at +3.

Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Rams Prediction


It's Gase vs. Goff as the Los Angeles Rams are set to debut the NFL's number 1 draft pick Jared Goff this weekend. As quarterback, the Rams will hope this will be an improvement over point-shy Case Keenum. They are coming off a win over the Jets, which snapped a 4 game skid, but the lack of touchdowns is hurting the team's potential.

Ranked last in the league, Los Angeles is only scoring 15.4 points on average per game, and with only an average of 308 total yards of offense, they are ranked 31st. Adam Gase, and the Miami Dolphins aren't doing too shabby themselves, winners of 4 straight. Travel won't be as much of a factor, as the team stayed in California after last week's win against the Chargers. They have the advantage in the running game, where Jay Ajayi has hit 725 yards this year, 210 better than Rams' Todd Gurley. He is averaging a 5.7 yards per carry, to Gurley's mere 3.1. That being said, this game will come down to big plays. Goff will want to make an impact, and his big play attempts will hit. 

Between these two teams, the home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 matches together. While the Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4, they are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their last game, and are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team that's below .500 at home. Los Angeles gets a big home win here at home behind the number 1 draft pick. Take the Los Angeles Rams at +1.5.

Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals Prediction


The Buffalo Bills have the advantage in this game, coming off a bye week, while the Cincinnati Bengals are playing on short rest, coming off a thrilling single point loss to the Giants in New York on Monday. The Bengals were an impressive 8-1 last year at this time, but this season are only 3-5-1. The Bills are only 4-5 themselves, as both them and the Bengals are vying for an AFC Wild Card berth. Luckily for Cincy, the AFC North is struggling this season, with the Ravens leading the group with only a 5-4 record.

The most likely scenario though, is that both the Bengals and Ravens lose. Buffalo might be a dog in this one, but with good reason. They matchup well against Cincinnati, going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games together, more specifically 4-1 ATS in their last 5 in Cincinnati. The underdog is also 5-1 ATS in the last 6 between these two. The Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 overall, and coming off a short week with the Bills fully rested, this isn't a good spot for Cincy. Buffalo needs the Wild Card spot more, because they are certainly not winning their division, while that's still possible for Cincinnati in the weak AFC North. Take the Buffalo Bills at +3. 

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers Prediction


Last week marked the Carolina Panthers' last hope. It was either the path to victory or to defeat. Had they won that game, momentum would have shifted, and sitting at 4-5, instead of 3-6, they'd fight and get to above .500. They failed the test, and it was the beginning of their downfall. This team will finish at .500 at best. To top it off, it was a game they should have won, but they blew a 17 point lead and had two late turnovers to drain any life left from their season. They are now facing NFC South rivals, the New Orleans Saints, on prime time on Thursday night. Also coming off a brutal 4th quarter loss, look for the Saints to take control of this one.

Trends heavily favor the Saints as well. Between these two teams, the road team is a fantastic 21-9 ATS in their last 30 meetings. The underdog is also a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups, and New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 between them. In division games, the Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against NFC South rivals, while the Panthers are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the NFC South. They're also only 2-3 at home, and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. This game will be close, but Drew Brees will be able to handle the pressure of prime time, and where they are in the standings better than Cam Newton. Take the New Orleans Saints at +3.5.

Category : NFL

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