NFL Thursday Night Predictions
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders NFL Picks
After two wins to begin the campaign, the Raiders have been in a death spiral, losing four in a row to sink into a tie for last with the Los Angeles Chargers. Last week, Oakland lost a one-point game at home to the Chargers, creating widespread panic among Raiders faithful.
Kansas City lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but the Chiefs remain the best team in the NFL as the halfway mark approaches. The only serious concern for coach Andy Reid has been the rush defense, which appears to be the Achilles heel of Kansas during the early stages of the season.
The Raiders have been reeling for a month, mostly due to Derek Carr’s injury. His return wasn’t a success, which places his recovery in question. Other than a close one against the Steelers, Kansas City’s season has been dominant against the best competition in the NFL.
Both modern and historical trends favor the Chiefs. Kansas has won five straight against Oakland, beating the spread in four of those meetings. In 2017, Kansas has won all their games by a touchdown or more. Pick the Chiefs to cover a 3.5 spread against Oakland.
An over/under of 46.5 seems conservative for a Chiefs offense that scores 29.5 points per game, so bet on the over.
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders Preview
After putting together a solid 2016, the Raiders were considered one of the better contenders for the Super Bowl this year. Instead, Oakland has followed the path of the New York Giants, losing four in a row because of a decimated offense. While the Giants have dealt with several receiver injuries, the Raiders watched Derek Carr eliminated from play after getting kneed in the back. Carr threw only 171 yards while tossing two picks. At this point, it’s arguable that he’s fully healthy.
Marshawn Lynch and Cordarrelle Patterson form a decent rushing battery, but the Raiders can’t replicate their 2016 season without Carr returning to form. Last year, Oakland averaged 26 PPG, seventh-best in the NFL. After six games in 2017, the Raiders have scored only 20.7 PPG – a sharp decrease in production. Oakland defense has improved from 24.1 points allowed per game to 21 PA, but the team won’t benefit without points on the board.
Kansas City has been the surprise leader of the AFC, threatening to dethrone the Patriots. Before the regular season started, the Chiefs were listed as +2500 underdogs to win the Super Bowl. After six excellent weeks, the Chiefs have joined the favorites in the NFL, with their odds to win Super Bowl 52 rising to +750.
One of the big stories behind the Chiefs has been the incredible contributions of rookie Kareem Hunt. The Steelers managed to shut Hunt down last week, a big reason why Kansas lost their first game in 2017. Oakland hasn’t been able to handle running backs who play an alternate role as receivers, which means that Hunt should rebound back to the 100 yard+ mark tonight. Coach Andy Reid will continue to find ways to find space for Hunt to operate.
NFL Thursday Night Football Schedule
Thursday night football continues to be difficult with NFL favorites. Last week featured the Eagles upsetting the Panthers at home, with the Packers remaining the only favorite to cover the spread. The Chiefs should become the second favorite to win against the spread.
The over continues to dominate totals for Thursday night football. Only the Texans and the Bengals failed to score more than the predicted total, and week seven between Kansas City and Oakland should continue the over winning trend.
|Sep. 7||Chiefs||at||Patriots||Patriots (-9.5, -550, Over 48.5)|
|Sep. 14||Texans||at||Bengals||Cincinnati (-6.5, -255, Under 38)|
|Sep. 21||Rams||at||49ers||Rams -3 (-110), -145, Under 39.5 (-105)|
|Sep. 28||Bears||at||Packers||Packers -7.5 (-105), -370, Over 44.5 (-105)|
|Oct. 5||Patriots||at||Buccaneers||Patriots -6 (-115), -250, Over 55 (-110)|
|Oct. 12||Eagles||at||Panthers||Panthers -3 (-110), -150, Over 46 (-105)|
|Oct. 19||Chiefs||at||Raiders||Chiefs -3 (-125), -165, Over 46.5 (-110)|
|Oct. 26||Dolphins||at||Ravens||- -|
|Oct. 29||Vikings||at||Browns||- -|
|Nov. 2||Bills||at||Jets||- -|
|Nov. 9||Seahawks||at||Cardinals||- -|
|Nov. 16||Titans||at||Steelers||- -|
|Nov. 30||Redskins||at||Cowboys||- -|
|Dec. 7||Saints||at||Falcons||- -|
|Dec. 14||Broncos||at||Colts||- -|
|Dec. 16||Bears||at||Lions||- -|
|Dec. 16||Chargers||at||Chiefs||- -|
|Dec. 23||Colts||at||Ravens||- -|
|Dec. 25||Steelers||at||Texans||- -|
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