Kent Tukeli | Sun 08/10/2017 - 14:49 EDT

NFL Sunday Night Predictions Week Five

NFL Sunday Night Predictions Week Five

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans NFL Picks

Kansas City roared out of the gates by embarrassing the Super Bowl champions Patriots in Gillette Stadium, after the banner was unfurled in front of New England faithful. The Chiefs haven’t let up, winning the first four games of the season by comfortable margins. In fact, the team has won by a converted touchdown or more, including a 15-point win against the Patriots.

After a terrible opening day loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Texans have improved every week, nearly knocking off the Patriots in week three. Houston crushed the Tennessee Titans by a score of 57-14, sending notice to the rest of the NFL.

My Team's Next MatchHouston Texans

The Kansas City Chiefs received a huge boost when Kareem Hunt turned out to be the real deal, grabbing the RB starting job and running away with NFL records. A surging Houston Texans defense with a healthy J.J. Watt will be the biggest challenge of Hunt’s young career, but he has plenty of backup.

Kansas City has one of the fastest groups of backs and receivers, a confident Alex Smith and an underrated defense. The Chiefs should win by at least a field goal, so bet on Kansas City beating the spread. Both teams have scored the football well this season, which makes an over bet on a total of 45 preferable to wagering on under.

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Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans Preview

Some considered Kansas City as one of the main rivals to the Patriots, but nobody expected the Chiefs to begin the season by decimating New England. After four weeks, the Chiefs control their own destiny and have become the favorites to win the AFC West, along with home field advantage throughout the conference playoffs. Coach Andy Reid has the Chiefs running at elite levels of efficiency, giving them a chance to improve on their 12-4 record last year.

Compare this to Houston, who made the playoffs mostly because they play in one of the weakest divisions in the NFL. Their 9-7 record was worse than the Dolphins and the Raiders, who qualified as Wild Card entrants. One of the biggest problems for the Texans was offense, finishing with the fourth worst attack of the 2016 NFL season. Rookie QB Deshaun Watson has taken over as starting QB, a promising talent who’s already delivering results.

Coach Reid has a terrific track record against rookie QBs, with an 8-1 record since taking over as head coach of the Chiefs. He’ll have Kansas City’s defense adjust to counter Watson, preventing the pivot from enjoying the same level of easy success he enjoyed against the Titans last week. The Houston Texans should be able to score 20-25 points, but that won’t be enough to beat the second-best offense in the NFL.

Kansas City averages more than 30 points per game this season, while limiting the opposition to just over 19 points a game. A point differential of more than eleven per game represents a team functioning at an elite level on both sides of the football. A spread of only two points and a projected total of 45 points seem very conservative, given the overall excellence of Kansas City this year. The Chiefs probably won’t win by eleven points, but they’re more than likely to win by more than two. Kansas City should be able to leverage speed and solid defense to emerge unbeaten after week five.

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NFL Sunday Night Football Schedule

Home teams have dominated Sunday night football this year, including underdogs Washington beating the visiting Oakland Raiders, who had a -3.5 spread. The Seahawks made the home team 4-0 on Sunday night by brutalizing the Colts in Seattle.

Scoring alternates week to week, resulting in a 50/50 for over/unders. Weeks two and four featured plenty of scoring while week one and three ended up as winners for those who bet under. In week five, expect the first road team to win with plenty of points on the board.

Date Matchups Picks
Sep. 10 Giants at  Cowboys Giants +170, +4.5 (-115), Under 45.5
Sep. 17 Packers at Falcons Falcons -140, -3 (-105), Over 56.5
Sep. 24 Raiders at  Redskins Raiders -3.5 (-105), -170, Over 55 (-110)
Oct. 1 Colts at Seahawks - -
Oct. 8 Chiefs at Texans Chiefs -2 (-110), -140, Over 45 (-105)
Oct. 15 Giants at Broncos - -
Oct. 22 Falcons at  Patriots - -
Oct. 29 Steelers at Lions - -
Nov. 5 Raiders at Dolphins - -
Nov. 12 Patriots at Broncos - -
Nov. 19 Eagles at Cowboys - -
Nov. 23 Giants at Redskins - -
Nov. 26 Packers at Steelers - -
Dec. 3 Eagles at Seahawks - -
Dec. 10 Ravens at Steelers - -
Dec. 17 Cowboys at Raiders - -
Dec. 23 Vikings at Packers - -

Category : NFL

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