EPL Predictions Week 11
West Ham vs Liverpool
Towards the end of last season, Liverpool went to the Olympic Stadium and wallopped West Ham 4-0. When they go back this Saturday November 4th at 1:30pm EST, West Ham will be ripe for the picking as not only will the home side be without their best all around player in Michail Antonio, they will be dealing with several injuries at the back as their defense is crippled.
Liverpool have the firepower to take advantage of a compromised Hammer side.
PICK: Liverpool (-150) available at Bet365
Manchester City vs Arsenal
After a statement win in Italy midweek, could the Champions-elect suffer a letdown?
Arsenal currently sit 5th in the Premier League standings thanks to a perfect home record. But away from the Emirates they are 1-1-3 with a -3 goal differential.
It is entirely possible that Arsene Wenger puts out a side that sits deep and attempts to frustrate the City attack. But keep in mind that Per Mertesacker has started and played all 90 minutes of their last 3 league games. They have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those matches.
Unless Arsenal show up with a completely different mentality than what we see from them on a regular basis, there will be gaps and channels for Man City to exploit.
This could be the case even with a tactical shift. Lots of teams that are built to defend, which the Gunners aren't, try and fail against Man City. And at the Etihad where they have a +18 goal differential, this one could get ugly.
Until some cracks appear in this Man City armour, I will happily wager on them. Too many things have to go right for Arsenal and I'm banking that they won't.
PICK: Man City -1.25 goals (-110) available at Bet365
Chelsea vs Manchester United
Mourinho tried to play open football for stretches in his career. Even at Manchester United he has allowed himself to stray from his usual conservative ways.
Early in his first season at Old Trafford he lost at home to cross-town rivals and old nemesis Pep Guardiola and then went back to Stamford Bridge and was humiliated by his old Chelsea side in 4-0 stomping as he watched the team that sacked him charge to the title the very next season.
But let's just look at the final scores when Manchester United play another top 6 side in the Premier League since Mourinho took charge:
2-1, 0-0, 4-0, 1-1, 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 0-0, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0, 1-0
In 12 matches in a season and change the under 2.5 goals has gone 9-3 and has covered 8 of the last 9. Like any market there are tendencies like Unders in Jose Mourinho managed games which should be understood and capitalized on. And even though Chelsea are struggling to create clear cut goal opportunities is the under guaranteed this Sunday? Certainly not.
But should we make the trend our friend? Certainly.
PICK: Under 2.5 Goals (-160) available at Bodog
You can follow me on twitter @zahir_gilani
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