Cricket Big Bash League 2017/18 Outright Odds and Predictions
The Big Bash 2017/18 Odds
Now into its seventh season, the Big Bash has established itself as one of the best tournaments of its kind anywhere in the world, showcasing elite players from the best cricketing nations. Historical context means that it is becoming easier to spot match trends and look at head to head records when considering individual game odds and of course the outright market.
So who will win the 2017/18 Big Bash competition? There are eight teams to choose from, each with their own case of lifting this year's trophy. Below you'll find a summary of the odds, followed by an in-depth analysis of each team and our outright prediction.
Perth Scorchers (+400)
Players In: Cameron Green, Josh Inglis.
Players Out: Ian Bell, James Muirhead.
Final Squad: Adam Voges (c), Ashton Agar, Cameron Bancroft, Jason Behrendorff, Hilton Cartwright, Nathan Coulter-Nile, Cameron Green, Josh Inglis, Mitchell Johnson, Michael Klinger, Mitch Marsh, Shaun Marsh, Joel Paris, Jhye Richardson, Ashton Turner, Andrew Tye, Sam Whiteman, David Willey.
Analysis: For whatever reason, the team from the west has been able to lead the way since the competition began in 2011. The Scorchers have made it to the semi-finals in every Big Bash season and have appeared in five out of a possible six finals, winning the tournament on three occasions. They are easily the most successful team in the competition, and have never finished a regular season lower than third-place.
The secret to the side's success has been their ability to keep most of their squad throughout the first six seasons. Names like Adam Voges, Nathan Behrendorff, Nathan Coulter-Nile and the Marsh brothers have been a feature of the lineup for the majority of matches played, while they have always been backed up by quality international players.
Our Prediction: Semi Finalists - The Perth Scorchers know how to make the semi-finals and we expect them to make it seven from seven trips to the playoffs. However, their greatest strength of roster consistency may also prove to be their biggest weakness this season - they are lacking an x-factor player.
Melbourne Renegades (+450)
Players In: Tim Ludeman, Kane Richardson, Jack Wildermuth, Brad Hodge, Jon Holland, Joe Mennie, Mohammad Nabi, Will Sutherland, Beau Webster, Kieron Pollard.
Players Out: Peter Nevill, Peter Siddle, Callum Ferguson, Matthew Wade, Sunil Narine.
Final Squad: Aaron Finch (c), Dwayne Bravo, Tom Cooper, Marcus Harris, Brad Hodge, Brad Hogg, Jon Holland, Tim Ludeman, Joe Mennie, Mohammad Nabi, James Pattinson, Kieron Pollard, Kane Richardson, Matt Short, Will Sutherland, Chris Tremain, Guy Walker, Beau Webster, Cameron White, Jack Wildermuth.
Analysis: The Renegades have had a clean-out, with a number of players coming in to join the squad. This is probably warranted, considering the team could be considered the least successful in the history of the Big Bash. Signings Kieron Pollard and Mohammad Nabi are established T20 players and will add experience and quality to the team, although the question is whether or not they will gel as a playing group.
Brad Hogg and Brad Hodge may be getting on in years, but the pair remain two of the better T20 cricketers in the competition, while Cameron White and Aaron Finch have considerable international experience. Their price of +450 is certainly indicative of their depth.
Our Prediction: Finalists - The Renegades have only finished above fifth on the ladder once from six attempts, although this looks like it could be the year they buck that trend. They will go close.
Brisbane Heat (+500)
Players In: Max Bryant, Brendan Doggett, Shadab Khan, Matt Renshaw, Cameron Valente, Yasir Shah.
Players Out: Sam Badree, Alex Doolan, Andrew Fekete, Nathan Reardon, Jack Wildermuth, Tymal Mills.
Final Squad: Brendon McCullum (c), Max Bryant, Joe Burns, Ben Cutting, Brendan Doggett, Jason Floros, Cameron Gannon, Sam Heazlett, Shadab Khan, Marnus Labuschagne, Josh Lalor, Chris Lynn, Jimmy Peirson, Matt Renshaw, Alex Ross, Mitchell Swepson, Mark Steketee, Cameron Valente, Yasir Shah.
Analysis: There are certainly players who can hit a long ball here, and Brendon McCullum, Chris Lynn and Ben Cutting will once again lead the way with the bat. Lynn is one of the best batsmen in the competition and almost single-handedly led the Heat to a second-place regular season finish; his absence in the semi-final was a huge blow for Brisbane.
The Heat have often featured a lack of bowling depth, although Yasir Shah will heighten the side's quality in that department this season.
Our Prediction: Semi-Finalists - Brisbane are another team that will go close in 2017/18 but will again struggle to go the distance.
Melbourne Stars (+500)
Players In: Jackson Coleman, Ben Dunk.
Players Out: David Hussey, Tom Triffitt.
Final Squad: John Hastings (c), Michael Beer, Scott Boland, Jackson Coleman, Ben Dunk, James Faulkner, Seb Gotch, Evan Gulbis, Peter Handscomb, Sam Harper, Ben Hilfenhaus, Glenn Maxwell, Kevin Pietersen, Rob Quiney, Marcus Stoinis, Dan Worrall, Luke Wright, Adam Zampa.
Analysis: Like the Scorchers, the Stars have made it to the semi-finals in every Big Bash season to date. Ben Dunk is a notable inclusion, and if he can replicate the form he showed in his stint in Hobart, Melbourne could finally break through and win the tournament - something they are yet to achieve.
Glenn Maxwell has shown good form with the bat in recent weeks, and his continued omission from the Australian test team is a huge boost for the Stars. James Faulkner, Ben Hilfenhaus and John Hastings are some of the best T20 bowlers in the tournament.
Our Prediction: Champions - It's finally time for the Stars to live up to expectations and win the Big Bash League. They present good odds at +500, so jump on now before they firm into favouritism.
Sydney Sixers (+500)
Players In: William Somerville, Henry Thornton, Harry Conway, Peter Nevill.
Players Out: Brad Haddin, Michael Lumb, Joe Mennie.
Final Squad: Moises Henriques (c), Sean Abbott, Sam Billings, Jackson Bird, Johan Botha, Ryan Carters, Harry Conway, Ben Dwarshuis, Mickey Edwards, Jack Edwards, Daniel Hughes, Nathan Lyon, Nic Maddinson, Peter Nevill, Steve O’Keefe, Jason Roy, Jordan Silk, Wiliam Somerville, Mitchell Starc, Henry Thornton.
Analysis: The outs certainly outweigh the incoming players for the Sixers this season, and with best bowlers Nathan Lyon and Mitchell Starc likely to miss the majority of games due to international commitments, it doesn't appear as though the Sydney-based team will be able to replicate it's form displayed in last season's campaign.
Sean Abbott was the top wicket-taker in last year's competition, and Moises Henriques is always a weapon with both bat and ball. Peter Nevill is also a class player who will come in as more or less a straight swap for veteran Brad Haddin.
Our Prediction: Bottom Four - While the Sixers defied the odds and made the final of last year's tournament, we can't see them finishing amongst the top four sides in this year's competition.
Adelaide Strikers (+700)
Players In: Colin Ingram, Rashid Khan.
Players Out: Brad Hodge, Kieron Pollard, Adil Rashid, Tim Ludeman, Kane Richardson, Craig Simmons.
Final Squad: Wes Agar, Alex Carey, Jonathon Dean, Ben Laughlin, Jake Lehmann, Michael Neser, Peter Siddle, Billy Stanlake, Jake Weatherald, Colin Ingram, Travis Head, Kelvin Smith, Jonathan Wells, Rashid Khan.
Analysis: Losing players of the calibre of Kane Richardson, Brad Hodge and Kieron Pollard will not help the cause of the Strikers. With just two players coming into the side it's not likely that the sixth-placed team in 2016/17 will do any better in this competition.
Travis Head and Ben Laughlin are players that can turn a match, but they look light with no genuine game-breakers. It's disappointing for an Adelaide side that along with the Renegades are the only team to have not made it to a BBL final.
Our Prediction: Bottom Four - The Strikers won't make the semi-finals unless they perform at 150% of their capabilities.
Hobart Hurricanes (+900)
Players In: Jofra Archer, Tymal Mills, Tom Rogers, David Moody, Matthew Wade.
Players Out: Stuart Broad, Kumar Sangakkara, Shaun Tait, Beau Webster, Jonathan Wells, Dominic Michael.
Final Squad: George Bailey (c), Jofra Archer, James Bazley, Cameron Boyce, Dan Christian, Hamish Kingston, Ben McDermott, Simon Milenko, Tymal Mills, David Moody, Tim Paine, Jake Reed, Sam Rainbird, Tom Rogers, Clive Rose, D'Arcy Short, Matthew Wade.
Analysis: The addition of Matty Wade is a curious one given the Hurricanes already have Tim Paine in their ranks, although now that he is part of the Australian test team and unlikely to lose his place, Wade will be a necessary inclusion. The extra batting strike power will also aid George Bailey and Dan Christian who often carry the side.
Cameron Boyce and Ben McDermott have been impressive, and there is a chance the Hurricanes could beat a few teams this season.
Our Prediction: Bottom Four - Hobart are on the cusp, and this lineup is certainly dangerous, but we have them finishing outside the semi-final spots.
Sydney Thunder (+900)
Players In: Blake Macdonald, Callum Ferguson, Arjun Nair, Jos Buttler.
Players Out: Jake Doran, Alister McDermott, Eoin Morgan, Andre Russell.
Final Squad: Shane Watson (c), Fawad Ahmed, Aiden Blizzard, Jos Buttler, Pat Cummins, Callum Ferguson, Ryan Gibson, Chris Green, Jay Lenton, Usman Khawaja, Mitchell McClenaghan, Arjun Nair, Clint McKay, Kurtis Patterson, Ben Rohrer, Gurinder Sandhu, Blake Macdonald.
Analysis: Losing players like Eoin Morgan and Andre Russell have put the Thunder behind the eight-ball, although Callum Ferguson is a great inclusion and will slot into the batting order nicely. The Thunder have a history of picking stars that often have other commitments, and it appears Usman Khawaja and Pat Cummins will miss the majority of matches.
Ben Rohrer, Aiden Blizzard and Clint McKay all have plenty of experience, while Fawad Ahmed is a genuine game-breaker. Still, inconsistency is a big factor at the Thunder and they will either come last or first - they are that unpredictable.
Our Prediction: Bottom Four - The Thunder are your only candidate for a value outsider, although as indicated above they could just as easily pick up another Wooden Spoon, something they have done on four occasions.
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