Best Picks NFL Week 16

Best Picks NFL Week 16

Not all games were made the same, especially not in the NFL. Some are pitted between contenders with playoff implications while some have the recipe to be exciting. Likewise, some gain more betting attention than the others for many reasons. But looking at previous betting history, current performance, and stats, we break down three match-ups that you should be looking at before you bet.  

NFL Week 16 Odds - Best Value Picks

Best Value Favourites

Ryan Tannehill

Miami Dolphins -4.5 (vs Jacksonville Jaguars)

A wise friend once said, "never bet a game between two bad teams". While we respect this wisdom, this is one of the few exceptions.

The Dolphins are a lot worse than their 7-7 record implies. They are a terrible defensive team and are mediocre on offence. But the Jaguars are in complete disarray and outside their defence, they are falling apart.

Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill laid an egg against Minnesota last week, but has been solid in the three games before that. He is 4-0 at home with the Dolphins being 6-1 (both S/U and ATS). Jacksonville still boasts an elite defence, but they are 1-5 S/U on the road (1-4-1 ATS) and have won one game in their last ten.

Dolphins should win and cover in an ugly affair.

Miami Dolphins -4.5 Against the Spread

Best Value Underdog

Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills +12.5 (@ New England Patriots)

Conventional wisdom dictates that you never bet against New England at home. The Patriots own the Bills in Gillette Stadium, but a 12.5 spread is ridiculous, especially at this time. 

The Pats are still a top-ten team on both sides of the ball, but they haven't clicked on offence. While they are undefeated at home (6-0 S-U; 5-1 ATS) thanks to a better offence, they will be going up against one of the best defensive road teams and a team that has been playing well lately.

Buffalo is 3-2 S/U in their last five and is 3-2-1 ATS in their last six games in Foxborough. They allow the fewest plays and passing yards among road teams. The return of dual-threat rookie QB Josh Allen has lightened the defence's load.

The Bills won't win, but they won't get blown out either.

Buffalo Bills +12.5 Against the Spread

Best Value Totals (Over/Under)

Seattle Seahawks

Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks Over +53

At first glance, this could be a "trap" game as it just seems so obvious. Kansas City has wreaked havoc on the totals this season. Nine of their 14 games have gone over including five of their last six. They also have the best road offence boasting the most points scored with the second-most passing yards. 

Seattle's CenturyLink Field is historically terrible for road teams, but not this year. The Seahawks are actually just mediocre on defence at home and have given up the seventh-most passing yards and the second-most yards per play. 

Kansas City doesn't have much of a defence and even if Seattle is dead-last in passing yards at home, Russell Wilson is capable enough to hold his own against the Chiefs juggernaut.

This game will go over 53 easily.

Over +53 Team Totals

Best NFL Week 16 Value Bets

These games are just some of the best bets from a value-based perspective. What does this mean? It means the bets we picked are more than likely to convert based on their odds (implied probability). But they aren't the only games available to bet on.

Betting On NFL Football

There are 16 games this week beginning Thursday evening and ending Monday night. This is the best time of the season as most teams have something to play for whether it's fighting for a top seed, a playoff bye, or a playoff spot.

With the CFL season wrapped, this is the best football and Canadian fans agree by signing up for online sportsbooks for better and more affordable options than their local affairs. Signup is easy and comes with promotions. Don't miss out now. Week 16 only comes once a year!