2016 AFC Futures Betting Lines
The New England Patriots are coming in as favorites to win the NFL AFC this season, but is that really the way to go? One thing that's been clear over the years is that the Pats are not to be underestimated. They have a deep team, and are able to both blowout teams and win marginally. With Tom Brady missing the first four games of the season due to suspension, the Pats will have to use backup Jimmy Garoppolo, but this doesn't mean four automatic losses. They sit as 6 point underdogs for their first game at Arizona, and while not impossible to win, will probably result in a loss. Their next three games however, are all at home against the Dolphins, Texans, and Bills. These are very winnable games, and when Tom Brady returns five games into the season, he will be the freshest, least banged up QB, and will have something to prove.
2016 NFL AFC Outright Betting Lines
The Pittsburgh Steelers are overvalued as second favorites to win. Big Ben would need a big year to be able to lift his team over the Patriots. An aging QB with shoulder issues is never a good sign looking forward. This year will show a steady Pittsburgh decline and may even lead to Mike Tomlin being in hot water at some point. The Denver Broncos are also overvalued after their Super Bowl win last year. With Peyton Manning gone, Denver will just not be able to generate the offense it needs to win games. They will have to rely on their strong defense, but it will not be able to cope with more potent offenses, especially since Manning was active in making defensive decisions as well. Coach Gary Kubiak will need more time to adjust, and may even be satisfied with his team's Super Bowl win last season.
Bet New England Patriots +275 On Sports Interaction
A secondary bet, coming in at good value would be the Oakland Raiders, at +1200 with Sports Interaction. They are hyped up this year, and with good reason, sharing decent chances of winning the AFC, with the Ravens, Chiefs, and Colts. Derek Carr is no slouch, finishing last year with a 91.1 QB rating, which is much improved from 2014. The books are also seeing value in the team this year, but are still underestimating them. If you are making a secondary bet, the Raiders at +1200 would be the best value.
2016/17 NFL Schedule and Betting Lines
Even with Brady out the first four games, the Pats are just the right team to find a way to win and come out of it without a big blow to their record. When Brady does come back, look for him to be rested and dominate the rest of the season. Pittsburgh and Denver should be faded because they are overvalued. A longshot with good value would be Oakland, but look for the Pats to keep with their winning ways and win the AFC, despite Brady's suspension.
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