Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Picks
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Picks 2016
With European-based runners comprising half of the 14-horse field, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf is one difficult race to decipher. What seems clear, however, is that La Coronel (9/2) is the best of the North American runners following her dazzling 4 1/4-length victory in the Grade 3 Jessamine Stakes October 12 at Keeneland. The victory signified the second turf win in as many tries for the Mark Casse trainee, who has clearly found her niche after beginning her career with a pair of off-the-board finishes sprinting on the main track. The question, therefore becomes, which European runner poses the biggest threat? As usual, Irish trainer Aidan O'Brien appears to hold a strong hand with Roly Poly (4/1) and Hydrangea (6/1) looming large.
- 1st: (#14) La Coronel
- 2nd: (#13) Roly Poly
- 3rd: (#9) Cavale Doree
- 4th: (#7) Intricately
How beatable are the favorites?
La Coronel may only be hindered by drawing a bad post (14). The wide draw will likely be a factor, but the upstart filly is in the capable hands of jockey Florent Geroux who was aboard for both wins. The daughter of Colonel John won at a mile and sixteenth at Saratoga and Keeneland, demonstrating the same acceleration from mid-pack in both efforts. There's no reason to think she won't handle the Santa Anita turf, but she is likely to see some quicker fractions in front of her. If anything, the quicker splits may boost her cause. Both O'Brien runners will be stretching out to a mile, but both are bred to run all day Spain Bug 5/1 is another European to keep an eye one. After winning the Shadwell Stakes last out, the filly was transferred to the barn of Kathy Ritvo and will receive first-time Lasix. A winner of 4 of 5 starts, this runner is nothing but consistent and should be poised to unleash a stretch bid.
Lonshots worth a look
New Money Honey (10/1) had the misfortune of making her debut start against La Coronel, but ran on well to finish second. In her next start, the Chad Brown-trained filly was an easy winner of the Miss Grillo Stakes. Top jockey Javier Castellano will remain in the irons and this gal might just improve enough to make her presence felt. Lull (15/1) represents a top-class turf barn and has enough early speed to make things interesting for at least the first six furlongs. She'll need to improve to hit the board, but is worth a look at big odds.
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