Matthew Manouli | Wed 18/04/2018 - 13:23 EDT

MLB Picks and Parlays Today

MLB Picks and Parlays Today

MLB Gameday Preview

Welcome to our Gameday Picks for Wednesday, April 18th! We have another three picks for you today. If you recall our article on the Puerto Rico series, we had our picks for the two game series. They were mainly tentative picks and would be dependent on the price being right. We hit our first game winner with Cleveland which is a good start. Our second game is where things change. As Tomlin isn't pitching anymore, we'll revisit that game and see if our pick will change. In addition, we've got a breakdown of the Giants at Diamondbacks game and finally the late NL matchup with the Dodgers at Padres.

Our Jackie Robinson Day picks took a turn for the worse on Sunday and we ended up back in the red after going 0-3 in games that could easily have gone our way. We lost all three games by a total of 4 runs. We'll be back at it today and should be in the black again by the next time. So let's get into it!

MLB Gameday Key Betting Trends 

  • Cleveland is 15-3 in their last 18 against a team with a winning home record (even though Minnesota isn't playing at home for this game), and they are 7-0 in Carrasco's last 7 starts when opposition scores 2 runs or less in their last game.
  • Minnesota is 1-5 in their last 6 starts when opponents score 5 or more in their last game and are 2-6 in Berrios' last 8 starts after a quality start in his last game.
  • San Francisco is 0-4 in their last 4 against a left handed starter and are 1-4 in Stratton's last 5 road starts.
  • Arizona is 8-2 in their last 10 against division rivals and are 19-7 in Ray's last 26 starts against a team with a losing record.
  • Los Angeles is 2-6 in their last 8 games against a right handed starter and is just 1-4 in Maeda's last 5 road starts.
  • San Diego is 7-1 in Perdomo's last 8 home starts against a team with a losing record and the home team is 6-1 in home plate umpire Hunter Wendelstedt's last 7 games involving San Diego.

MLB Gameday Picks and Parlays

This game seemed like a no-brainer with Tomlin on the mound, but with Carrasco starting, we need to re-evaluate. The Cleveland pitcher has been unbelievable so far and every trend favors him in this spot. Berrios grew up just 20 minutes from the stadium, and while he will have family and friends there, this might not be a boon. At just 23 years old, there's no telling how the extra adrenaline might affect him. Not only that, but even if he performs well, the Minnesota offense isn't clicking right now. We have to take the Indians in this spot at the modest price. 

Cleveland Indians (-135)

Just like the Cleveland and Minnesota game, most trends point to Ray holding it down at home here. Again, there's nothing to say the away pitcher won't be on point as well, but it's the offense we still can't trust. Until the San Francisco bats heat up, there's no reason to take them here at Chase Field. The Snakes bats should rebound here at home after their sneaky 1-0 win on Tuesday. Take the D-Backs here at this price. 

Arizona Diamondbacks (-150)

Kenta Maeda's last start saw him leave after only 2.2 innings, allowing five runs, two of which were earned, five hits and two walks. Perdomo's last start was even shorter, lasting just two innings before inciting a brawl. He allowed no runs in that time though. The Dodgers have good numbers against the Padres, but this clearly isn't the same team from last season. The Padres shouldn't get swept at home here. We'll take the RL as insurance. Maeda should get hit, while Perdomo might. Take the Padres on the RL here as a home dog.

San Diego Padres +1.5 (-115)

Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins

The Cleveland Indians (9-6) made short work of the Twins on Tuesday night at Hiram Bithorn Stadium. They hit .308 in the 6-1 while Minny couldn't get the hits in with a .176 average. Michael Brantley and Jose Ramirez each had three hits in the win. Francisco Lindor also pleased his home crowd with a homer. Logan Morrison, DH for the Minnesota Twins (7-5), continued to fail to impress, going 0 for 3 on the night, bringing him to just 3 for 37 on the season.

Carlos Carrasco (3-0, 3.48 ERA) has been outstanding this season. In three starts, he's got his three wins. Last time out, the 31-year-old pitched a complete game, allowing just one run on three hits in a 5-1 win against the Tigers. Of the Twins roster, only Joe Mauer is of much concern, as he's batting .458 in 24 ABs against Carrasco. His overall career record is 5-6 with a 3.83 ERA against Minny.

Hometown hero Jose Berrios (2-1, 2.18 ERA) will be taking the mound to close out this series. His last start against the White Sox went very well, striking out 11 in just seven innings of no run ball. In his first three starts, he's held opponents to just .164. Against Cleveland, Berrios has a 5.31 ERA. 

San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks (12-4) are rolling along at home, winners of four straight and are 6-1 at Chase Field. They won by the slimmest of margins with a 1-0 victory on Tuesday. Unfortunately for the San Francisco Giants (6-10), their offense hasn't been there recently and they've lost their last four games. Evan Longoria missed the last game and is expected to miss this one as well.

Chris Stratton (1-1, 2.60 ERA) is the Giants' de facto ace right now, with Cueto, Bumgarner, and Samardzija out. The good news for them is that he's been playing like one. The 27-year-old hasn't given up more than three runs in any of his three starts this season and his last outing against the Padres saw him go seven scoreless innings, giving up only one hit. In his three starts against the Diamondbacks, Stratton is 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA.

Robbie Ray (2-0, 5.74 ERA) didn't factor in his matchup against the Giants last week, where he gave up three runs in 4.2 innings. He played a good game until a mistake to Buster Posey resulted in a homer that got him pulled out of the game. Ray's start against Colorado in his season debut was much worse though, where he allowed seven runs (six earned) in five innings. The 26-year-old is a giant-killer though, having a 4-1 record and 2.82 ERA against the rivals in nine career starts.

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres

The Los Angeles Dodgers (7-9) are still below .500 for the season, but are looking to sweep their division rivals on Wednesday on their home turf. Offense has been on point, with Yasmani Grandal hit a grand slam in Monday's game against his former team in a 10-3 win and hit in a two run double in extra innings to top off a 7-3 win on Tuesday. The San Diego Padres (7-12) overall have a better team ERA than the Dodgers though and Christian Villanueva, with six home runs and 13 RBIs, looks to see how he fares against Maeda for the first time. 

Kenta Maeda (1-1, 2.08 ERA) hasn't been stellar against the Padres though, just average at best. The 30-year-old is 3-3 with a 4.50 ERA against them in nine appearances, eight of which were starts. Freddy Galvis is his main concern, as he's batting .556 in 9 ABs with a home run against Maeda, but Hunter Renfroe and Cory Spangenberg are also tough spots in the rotation, batting .400 and .300 respectively, in 10 ABs.

Luis Perdomo (1-1, 4.91 ERA) is looking to forget his last outing that left him with a five game suspension after hitting Nolan Arenado with a pitched caused both benches to clear in Denver. He'll need to work on his ground ball rate though, as the Dodgers are looking to keep their offense hot. In seven appearances, four of which were starts, the 24-year-old is just 1-4 with a 8.40 ERA agaisnt the Dodgers.  

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