There's No Place Like Home
A team's home and away records aren't a definitive source of information, but each season there are teams that tend to do just a bit better away from home than we would expect. And then there are teams, sometimes great teams, which do worse at home for whatever reason. We'll look at some teams with the best road and home records, and also delve into if they were profitable, because that in itself is a different animal and leads to the unexpected.
Most teams prefer home play to being on the road for obvious reasons. Home field advantage in baseball isn't as significant as in other sports though, but that doesn't mean it can't help. A team with a strong pitching staff can thrive in a pitcher's park (as long as we know his numbers independent of the park of course), and having a strong wind can home can help if you've got plenty of sluggers.
This season, the team with the top home record is the Los Angeles Dodgers, but that shouldn't come as a surprise. They are 52-23 at home, and while that's helped them surge to the top of the NL West, in terms of betting, it's mediocre. Less than mediocre in fact, as they've only accumulated +1.83 units at home all year. So was it really worth blindly betting baseball's best team at home? Arguably yes, but we wouldn't suggest it for the rest of the season.
The next best teams are the D-Backs, Red Sox, Yankees, and Indians, all hovering between 48 and 45 home wins. That's of course great for a New York Yankees squad who are still in a divisional race with the Sox, sitting at only 3.0 GB. The Bombers have home games in hand and they've proven that it is a distinct advantage for them to play in New York.
On the Road Again
Shifting gears, we'll focus on some teams' road records. If you guessed the Dodgers would be first again, get ready for a surprise. Despite still holding the best record in the league, the Dodgers, at 44-31, fall short of the Cleveland Indians' league leading 48-27 record, along with the Astros' and Nationals' record on the road. The Minnesota Twins are a distant fifth at 39-33.
Unlike the Dodgers at home, the Indians have actually been fairly profitable away from home, sitting at around +6.01 units. It's something to keep in mind during the postseason. They are like the Dodgers however, if we compare them at home. We don't know what it is about Progressive Field, but despite their top performances there, their high prices leave them at -3.80 units at home.
Houston and Washington have 47-27 and 46-27 road records respectively, and both are absolutely tearing it up in terms of ROI. Because of these two teams' low prices on the road during the season, they've both been the two of the best clubs to have bet on this year. The Astros are up around +11 units, while the Nats are sitting at almost +14 units.
Some More Surprises
While we've listed the top records in the league for both home and away, pricing definitely throws a monkey wrench in things. While Houston and Washington's profitability mirrors their away record, the Colorado Rockies' are only 39-36 on the road, but have made over 13 units of profit, almost as much as the teams with a much better record. The Red Sox and Yankees are great home teams, but even with a good away record, they are net zero in terms of profitability.
In terms of home record, in the NL East, it's actually the last place Philadelphia Phillies who have lost the least amount of units at home. That includes Washington and Miami. In the NL West, the Padres are neck and neck with the Diamondbacks, each hovering around +11 units at home this season, best in the division. In fact, the last in their division Oakland Athletics, are up over 11 units at home as well, and actually have the best home ROI in the entire league. Not bad for a team that's just ranked 12th in straight home record.
Sometimes it pays to fade a great team that hasn't been profitable either at home or on the road because of their price. And sometimes it's good to go for a bad or mediocre team that's been priced so nicely, that they end up being profitable either at home or on the road. With the playoffs coming up though, we'll most likely be greeted with the former scenario. And we welcome it.
Did you like this article? Be sure to share and comment if you were surprised by any of the numbers, and if you'll be using the records or profitability in your playoff capping. Once you're done that capping, head on down to Sports Interaction and put your picks to the test!
Category : MLB News
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