Matthew Manouli | Sat 19/08/2017 - 03:33 EDT

2017 MLB NL Outright Odds Update

2017 MLB NL Outright Odds Update

Last time, we took a look at how the America League was shaping up and gave you an updated odds list for World Series futures and the AL Pennant. The AL seems a bit more balanced, and even the Astros, playing as well as they are, seem to be regressing a bit. The main fight will be not only for the Wild Card, but the the AL East title as well. But how do things look in the National League?

NL World Series Futures Update

Unlike the AL, the NL doesn't seem as balanced. Things look to be all but decided already going into the postseason. The Los Angeles Dodgers (85-34) are also favored to win the World Series and are available at +240 at BODOG. Even with Clayton Kershaw injured, they've been winning games with both offense, and the rest of their insanely deep pitching staff.

Acquiring Yu Darvish set them on another level, and sitting at over 50 games over .500, they've clinched the division. They'll go far in the postseason, but will it be enough?

The Washington Nationals (72-47) are in the same boat as the Dodgers, having clinched the NL East, and steamrolling into the playoffs. Despite having 13 less wins than the Dodgers, we all know the postseason is a different animal, and if Washington can get a few lucky bounces, they're good enough to make it count against Los Angeles. Bodog has them as third favorite to win at +700, just behind the Astros, and it's a pretty good price for a team with great starting pitching, a rejuvenated bullpen, and great offense, especially when Bryce Harper returns.

The next team of interest is the Chicago Cubs (63-57), who haven't clinched their division yet, but should step up to the task. Key word: Should. They started off the season with a mediocre run, but picked it up after the All-Star game to take back the MLB National League Central, but with Mikwaukee and St. Louis a few lucky games away from stealing the division back, the defending champs might not even make it to the playoffs, let alone lift the trophy. Bodog has them at +800, slightly worse than the Nats, but Chicago's much less consistent. Even though they have a relatively easy schedule for the rest of the season, taking them at +800 isn't the best of ideas for this squad. 

Odds drop off a ton after the Cubs, so here's the rest of the field (as you can see, a lot more teams have been eliminated in the NL):

  • Arizona Diamondbacks: +2800
  • Colorado Rockies: +3300
  • St. Louis Cardinals: +3300
  • Milwaukee Brewers: +5000
  • Pittsburgh Pirates: +15000

NL Pennant and Wild Card

The race for the Pennant is a whole other story in the NL. There's really only three teams that the books are respecting here. At +125, the Dodgers are almost at even money to win the Pennant. The Nationals are currently at +275, and close behind are the Cubs at +300. As we said before, just assuming the Cubs will be in the playoffs isn't a smart play. MLB has them at 84.2% to get in, but they still have a fierce division fight to get though. Even then, they'll have to face either the Nats or Dodgers, and that's not a series they'll do well in, especially when they're only +300.

The rest of the teams look like this:

  • Arizona Diamondbacks: +1200
  • Colorado Rockies: +1600
  • St. Louis Cardinals: +1800
  • Milwaukee Brewers: +2800
  • Pittsburgh Pirates: +5000

The two Wild Card spots are currently held by the D-Backs and Rockies, both from the MLB National League West. With 67 wins apiece, it's safe to see why we value them over the 63-win Cubs. They do have to play an extra game, but Arizona's currently even more favored to get in the playoffs than Chicago. We believe the Cubs are the .500 team they were during the first half of the season, and that they will regress to that soon, either missing the playoffs completely, or folding early on. The D-Backs have phenominal value at +1200, as do the Rockies.

In the NL Central, the Cards and Brewers will try to make a push to oust the Cubs, but it'll be tough with the Cubs' easy schedule. St. Louis currently has a 33.2% chance to make the postseason, and have a 17.2% chance to win the division. At +1800, this doesn't seem worth it because of all they'll need to do. But most of all they'll need the Cubs to fail down the stretch as well. The Brew Crew could surge back, and only 4.5 GB from a Wild Card spot, they might sneak in, especially if Colorado stays inconsistent and Milwaukee gets back in form. If the Cubs do falter though, they're in prime position to take back the division Sitting at only 1.0 GB, they could easily surprise.

As for the Pirates... let's just say you should save your money.

These odds are up right now at BODOG, so be sure to get in on the action! If you liked this article, be sure to share and comment below!

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Category : MLB

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