Ray McLachlan | Sun 22/07/2018 - 06:01 EDT

World Cup 2018 Predictions In Review: Payout, Stats & Standings

World Cup 2018 Predictions In Review: Payout, Stats & Standings
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, and that couldn't be more true in the world of sports betting. We discuss our tips and predictions from the 2018 World Cup and highlight where you could have made some serious cash, plus discuss all the upcoming betting opportunities in soccer both domestically and abroad.

The FIFA World Cup 2018 In Review

The 2018 FIFA World Cup will go down as one of the most exciting in recent memory, which is best illustrated by the fact that there was just one goalless draw out of 64 matches at the tournament. There were an unprecedented amount of goals scored in the knockout stages, while VAR helped the referees award more penalties, and perhaps also limited the number of red cards (there were no red cards for violent conduct at the event, and just four overall).

StandingsWorld Cup

In terms of betting, there were a number of opportunities for punters at the World Cup, yet you had to be careful who to trust. Germany were odds on favourites to reach the group stage and ended up finishing bottom of Group F as the curse of the defending champions struck once more. Argentina and Spain were heavily backed, yet both looked old and slow at a tournament that is often described as a ‘young man’s game’.

England, France and Belgium boasted young sides, so it was no surprise to see them reach the last four, while Croatia’s brilliant team almost caused a huge tournament highlight. European teams have now won four of the last five World Cups, and the gulf between them and South American nations appears to be slowly growing.

So how did our experts go at a World Cup that featured plenty of talking points? Read on for a detailed summary of how each match unfolded.

World Cup 2018 Group Stage Results & Correct Predictions

The group stage of the 2018 World Cup went mostly according to plan, unless you’re a German fan of course. We correctly tipped 13 of 16 teams to progress from the group stage: Japan’s disciplinary record topped our Senegal prediction, while Russia proved we were wrong to discount the host nation. If you picked Germany to finish last in the Group, you either know nothing about soccer or you’re from the future. 

 

Predicted
Result
Predicted
Score 

Draw
No Bet

90′ Result

43.75%

6.25%

53.85%

Russia

5-0

Saudi Arabia

RUS

2-0

WIN

Egypt

0-1

Uruguay

URU

1-0

WIN

Morocco

0-1

Iran

DRAW

0-0

LOSS

Portugal

3-3

Spain

SPAIN

2-1

DRAW

France

2-1

Australia

FRA

2-0

WIN

Argentina

1-1

Iceland

ARG

3-1

DRAW

Peru

0-1

Denmark

DEN

2-1

WIN

Croatia

2-0

Nigeria

DRAW

0-0

LOSS

Costa Rica

0-1

Serbia

DRAW

1-1

LOSS

Germany

0-1

Mexico

GER

2-0

LOSS

Brazil

1-1

Switzerland

BRA

1-0

DRAW

Sweden

1-0

Korea Republic

SWE

2-0

WIN

Belgium

3-0

Panama

BEL

4-0

WIN

Tunisia

1-2

England

ENG

2-0

WIN

Poland

1-2

Senegal

DRAW

1-1

LOSS

Colombia

1-2

Japan

COL

3-1

LOSS

Russia

3-1

Egypt

DRAW

1-1

LOSS

Portugal

1-0

Morocco

POR

2-0

WIN

Uruguay

1-0

Saudi Arabia

URU

3-1

WIN

Iran

0-1

Spain

SPA

2-0

WIN

France

1-0

Peru

FRA

2-0

WIN

Denmark

1-1

Australia

DEN

2-0

DRAW

Argentina

0-3

Croatia

ARG

1-0

LOSS

Brazil

2-0

Costa Rica

BRA

3-0

WIN

Nigeria

2-0

Iceland

DRAW

1-1

LOSS

Serbia

1-2

Switzerland

SWI

1-0

WIN

Belgium

5-2

Tunisia

BEL

3-0

WIN

Germany

2-1

Sweden

GER

2-1

WIN

Korea Republic

1-2

Mexico

MEX

2-1

WIN

England

6-1

Panama

ENG

2-0

WIN

Japan

2-2

Senegal

Senegal

1-0

DRAW

Poland

0-3

Colombia

COL

2-1

WIN

Uruguay

3-0

Russia

RUS

1-0

LOSS

Saudi Arabia

2-1

Egypt

EGY

2-0

LOSS

Spain

2-2

Morocco

SPA

3-0

DRAW

Iran

1-1

Portugal

POR

2-0

DRAW

Denmark

0-0

France

FRA

2-1

DRAW

Australia

0-2

Peru

AUS

1-0

LOSS

Nigeria

1-2

Argentina

ARG

1-0

WIN

Iceland

1-2

Croatia

CRO

1-0

WIN

Korea Republic

2-0

Germany

GER

4-0

LOSS

Mexico

0-2

Sweden

MEX

1-0

LOSS

Serbia

0-2

Brazil

BRA

3-1

WIN

Switzerland

2-2

Costa Rica

SWI

1-0

DRAW

Japan

0-1

Poland

DRAW

0-0

LOSS

Senegal

0-1

Colombia

DRAW

1-1

LOSS

England

0-1

Belgium

DRAW

2-2

LOSS

Panama

1-2

Tunisia

PAN

3-1

LOSS

Our experts tipped 56.25% of the first 32 matches at the tournament, which is not bad considering there are three possible results in each game. If you eliminate matches that ended as draws, the figure is even higher (18 of 27 or 66.6%).

We certainly weren’t helped by some crazy results and late goals, although you have to expect that in sports betting. If it wasn’t for Cristiano Ronaldo’s late free kick against Spain, or Morocco’s last minute own goal, or Argentina’s inexplicable lack of penetration against Iceland, we would have tipped seven of seven straight up. But hey, that’s soccer.

The most interesting statistic from the opening 32 matches is that there were only five draws. While we picked just seven, it was quite incredible how few there turned out to be. The main reason for this was VAR – there were a record number of penalties given at the tournament, and it’s obvious that goals change matches.

The final sixteen matches were tough to pick, and Korea Republic’s 2-0 win over Germany is indicative of how difficult it was to select a winner. Sweden’s 3-0 win over Mexico came from absolutely nowhere, while England and Belgium’s decision to rest all their stars meant that it was almost impossible to select a winner in that match.

Denmark and France played out a mutually beneficial 0-0 draw, the only match in the group stage to finish scoreless, while teams like Switzerland, Spain and Portugal definitely took it easy against their lower-ranked opponents, leading to draws that should have been comfortable victories. This highlights how important it is to leave your bets to the last moment.

The group stage also showcased the difficulty in picking the correct score – we made just three of our 32 bets in this category and were caught off guard by the sheer number of goals. Again, VAR had an impact that we did not foresee.

Overall, we ended with a passable result of 43.75% correct head-to-head results, with plenty of room for improvement leading into the knockout phase. 

World Cup 2018 Knockout Stage Results & Payout

The knockout stage of this year’s World Cup featured a few surprises, most notably Russia’s win over Spain in penalties. Croatia’s run to the final was aided by Spain’s departure, although they still struggled to overcome the likes of Denmark, Russia and England, needing at least extra-time in all three matches.

 

Predicted
Result
Predicted
Score 

Draw
No Bet

90′ Result

62.50%

31.25%

76.92%

France

4-3

Argentina

DRAW

1-1

LOSS

Uruguay

2-1

Portugal

URU

2-1

WIN

Spain

1-1

Russia

SPA

2-0

DRAW

Croatia

1-1

Denmark

DRAW

1-1

WIN

Brazil

2-0

Mexico

BRA

2-0

WIN

Belgium

3-2

Japan

BEL

2-0

WIN

Sweden

1-0

Switzerland

SWE

1-0

WIN

England

1-1

Colombia

ENG

2-1

DRAW

France

2-0

Uruguay

FRA

2-1

WIN

Brazil

1-2

Belgium

BRA

3-2

LOSS

England

2-0

Sweden

ENG

2-1

WIN

Russia

1-1

Croatia

DRAW

1-1

WIN

France

1-0

Belgium

DRAW

2-2

LOSS

Croatia

1-1

England

ENG

2-1

DRAW

Belgium

2-0

England

BEL

3-1

WIN

France

4-2

Croatia

FRA

1-0

WIN

This stage of the tournament proved to be our best in terms of profit. An overall success rate of 62.50% in the head to head market meant that if you followed all of our tips you would have made a small return on investment, while our win rate excluding draws was an incredible 76.92%.

Our predicted score tips were quite impressive, and this is where you could have made some serious cash. Our experts predicted five out of sixteen correct scores, which is huge in a market that pays around +400 for the favourite. A $10 bet on each match would have earned you $248 from a stake of $160, so just over a $50% profit.

There were also some easy wins in the final rounds. France were always going to beat Croatia in the final, yet offered -114 for victory. While the nature of the victory (6 goals) was impossible to predict, the head to head bet was almost guaranteed.

The same can be said for Belgium vs England in the third-place playoff. Belgium are simply a better team than the English, they had an extra day of preparation for the match, and above all they had more to play for given their best result at the tournament is fourth place. At +120, Belgium were a steal. 

Soccer Betting Schedule 

The World Cup May be over but there’s a stack of soccer betting opportunities to look forward to.

The second half of the MLS season is already underway, and there’s plenty of teams that are still in with a chance of bringing home the Supporters’ Shield and the MLS Cup. It’s hard to imagine, but Toronto FC and Seattle Sounders are mathematically an outside possibility of competing in a third consecutive final, and the odds you’ll get for this occurring are very juicy considering their position on the table.

Of course, if you’re looking forward to the big European leagues then the wait is almost over.

The English Premier League season kicks off on Friday, August 11th and you can already place a bet on who you think will top the 2018/19 standings. Manchester City are incredibly short to go back to back, and it’s hard to bet against them considering the quality of their squad. Yet Liverpool have made some huge statements in the transfer market – could it be the year of the Red?

Elsewhere, Italy’s Serie A welcomes the addition of Cristiano Ronaldo and will begin on August 19th, while the Spanish La Liga season kicks off on the same date and will once again be a battle between Barcelona and European club champions Real Madrid (although Atletico Madrid might still be in the mix if they hold onto Antoine Griezmann).

And speaking of Real, the UEFA Champions League group stage will get underway in September, and markets are already open for this season’s winner. If you can’t wait for the tournament to begin, there’s plenty of Champions League and Europa League qualifying rounds already in progress. There’s at least one soccer match taking place somewhere in the world on any given day, so you’re never short of options.

Category : Picks and Parlays

Tag : FIFA World Cup , Soccer

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