Who Will Win The 2016-17 Premier League?
Parity owes Tottenham a huge favor. Coming into Wednesday 5 points clear of 2nd place Liverpool, Chelsea went to White Hart Lane looking for immortality with a record setting 14th straight Premier League win. A victory would have also taken them 8 points clear.
Even a draw would have been a great result for the Blues…
Instead, as correctly predicted, Spurs won 2-0 and for all intents and purposes, saved the season for the FA. There would be nothing more anticlimactic and ironic than having a runaway winner in the league claiming to be the most competitive on the planet.
Premier League Outright Odds at Bet365
As a Chelsea fan, I wanted a title with no stress. As a Football fan, things just got very interesting Let’s take a look at the live Premier League Table, with betting futures only available on BET365 - Before kickoff Chelsea were -188 to win the title. The loss at White Hart Lane immediately knocked them down by 50 cents.
So if you still think Chelsea are the best option, then it might be the time or never as you can now take them laying just under 7/5.
Here is why you should take Chelsea (-138)
With only 18 Premier League games left and the FA Cup they face a maximum of 25 fixtures or so between now and May. They’ll be rested, ready and prepared for every remaining fixture. This was Leicester’s main advantage last year. Ranieri was able to go with basically the same squad game in and game out. Conte should be able to do the same.
Why would you avoid Chelsea?
They are not a particularly deep squad. After Costa they have no proven striker. After Kante they have no replacement for him in the midfield. David Luiz has been playing hurt for the last 2 months. Any major injuries would be difficult to navigate.
Does Any of The Major Contenders Provide Better Value?
Liverpool’s schedule will clear up and eventually they will be in the same boat as Chelsea. However they face a difficult January. They have 6 games in 23 days including a Premier League showdown at Old Trafford.
Sadio Mane is gone for the entire month as he will be playing in AFCON. And Philippe Coutinho has not yet returned to training, so they will be entering their most hectic and important part of the schedule at less than full strength.
If you wanted to bet Liverpool, I would wait until after the Old Trafford game.
If they drop points there you can get a better price.
TOTTENHAM (+1400) and MANCHESTER UNITED (+1800)
These are the best two underdog teams right now.
The ONLY thing I have against either of these 2 teams is the Europa League. Once the competition recommences in February, both United and Spurs will be playing Thursdays and Sundays, and a team in the Europa League making a title run is a tall order.
We saw this exact same movie with Spurs last year. By the time they hit their best form the team in 1st place had large enough of a lead to play keep away. With no games left against Chelsea, they have to rely on the rest of a mediocre league to do dirty work for them. +1400 is enticing, because of how good Tottenham are, but also highly speculative.
The best bet on the entire board is Manchester United to make the top 4 at +100. You would have had to lay a lot more than even money at the beginning of the season.
Jose Mourinho and Manchester United’s organization and fans (…and Sponsors) would consider it an embarrassment to spend 1 more season in the Europa League.
There is just too much money riding on this Corporation to not get the Champions League money and huge marquee fixtures against names like Barcelona and Real Madrid. Mourinho lives for the Champions League and has stated many times that failure to make the top 4 is not an option. The Special one does not cushion his bed for a fall, unlike some other managers.
MANCHESTER CITY (+700) and ARSENAL (+1400)
As of last week, Pep Guardiola and Arsene Wenger crowned Chelsea Champions.
They even helped prove themselves right, with City no showing at Anfield and Arsenal going down 3-0 to Bournemouth.
Arsenal will put together a great win streak at some point to make it look like they can compete, but history has shown ultimately that they will fall short. I recommend taking any money you were going to bet on them and donate it to your favorite charity.
Manchester City’s next 2 games are at Goodison and at home to Tottenham. I don’t see them taking 6 points from their next 2 games.
Chelsea probably will as they face Leicester and Hull, meaning that if you wait a couple weeks, much like I foresee with Liverpool, you will get a much better price.
For up to date picks and all things footy you can follow me on twitter @zahir_gilani
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