UFC Fight Night Predictions: Holly Holm vs Bethe Correia
Three years ago, the UFC debuted its revolutionary online digital streaming service, UFC Fight Pass in Singapore and it once again returns with an even better card. Holly Holm may have lost three in a row after her historic upset over Ronda Rousey but they were against elite competition.
The Greg Jackson fighter is still a title contender and a huge win over former title challenger Bethe Correia could see her challenge for the belt again. Former champions like Andrei Arlovski, Rafael dos Anjos, and Tarec Saffiedine also feature on the main card.
|Fight Card||HOLM VS CORREIA (UFC Fight Night, June 17, 2017)|
|Prediction||TAKE HOLM (-560)|
Despite her losing skid, Holm is still a huge favourite heading into this fight and that is because Correia is a big step down in competition for the former boxing and UFC champion. Holm is the superior striker here in almost every way.
She has a longer reach, better movement, accuracy, kicks, and also has the savvier corner. However, Holm has glaring weaknesses beginning with her tendency to get countered. She is technical but also active and her chin is not the best. If Correia lands, there is a chance Holm gets hurt.
Correia is aptly named “Pitbull”. The Brazilian is even more active than Holm landing 4.74 strikes at 46% accuracy compared to Holm’s 3.08 at 34%. Although these stats are deceiving due to Holm’s tougher competition, it demonstrates how aggressive Correia can be.
Paired with her aggressiveness is decent cardio. If she can get into Holm’s head just a little she can fluster her and open her up to her decent counters. Correia could also develop a kicking game and diversify her striking. She should avoid targeting just the head.
Holm has a clear path to victory. She can move around and use her rangy kicks and straight punches to keep Correia at bay. Holm is strong in the clinch and has enough defensive grappling to keep the fight standing for the most part. Holm should frustrate Correia enough to earn a decision or even a late finish once she catches Correia with her kicks. At close to 6-1 odds, it’s tough to bet her straight but putting her in a parlay with some other favourites below is recommended.
Best UFC Picks – June 17, 2017
Nine of the 12 favourites are upwards of -300 and hold little value on their own unless parlayed with each other. Among these heavy faves, Jon Tuck (-335) is a solid pick.
The American badly needs a win and holds grappling and youth advantages over the fading Takanori Gomi (+240). Another fave to look out for is Walt Harris (-375) who is the bigger fighter with considerable striking advantages. He should KO the overmatched Cyril Asker (+260). A parlay of Holm, Tuck, and Harris is almost 1-1 at -107.
Cards like this also offer great potential for huge upsets but randomly throwing money at large underdogs is inadvisable. Dong Hyun Kim (+240) is being underestimated against rising contender Colby Covington (-340). Kim is a black belt judoka who has only lost to title contenders while Covington has not beaten any ranked fighters.
At those odds, Kim is a must-bet. Most sportsbooks offer a signup bonus of up to $200 making it more convenient for new players to take shots at underdogs like Kim.
Main Card (UFC Fight Pass, 8 AM ET)
- Holly Holm vs Bethe Correia
- Andrei Arlovski vs Marcin Tybura
- Dong Hyun Kim vs Colby Covington
- Rafael dos Anjos vs Tarec Saffiedine
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass, 4:45 AM ET)
- Jon Tuck vs Takanori Gomi
- Walt Harris vs Cyril Asker
- Alex Caceres vs Rolando Dy
- Justin Scoggins vs Ulka Sasaki
- Li Jingliang vs Frank Camacho
- Kwan Ho Kwak vs Russell Doane
- Naoki Inoue vs Carls John De Tomas
- Ji Yeon Kim vs Lucie Pudilova
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