P. J. Go | Sat 09/06/2018 - 08:17 EDT

UFC 225 Odds: Can CM Punk Get First MMA Win?

UFC 225 Odds: Can CM Punk Get First MMA Win?
The MMA purists won't admit but everyone loves a good trainwreck and that's why former WWE superstar and 0-1 fighter CM Punk has a feature spot in one of the UFC's most stacked pay-per-views: UFC 225. Punk is looking to prove he has a future in the world's top MMA promotion by beating fellow 0-1 fighter Mickey Gall. We break down the fight.

CM Punk Looks to Prove He Belongs Vs Jackson

Punk is coming in as a +190 underdog while Jackson is -260. Despite both fighters having little to no professional fighting experience, oddsmakers believe Jackson is a likelier winner. But Punk trains at a better gym and may not be as bad as people think.

This fight won’t be winning any awards but it should be at least be entertaining.

Punk VS Jackson
+190 -260
 USA Country USA
0-1-0 Record 0-1-0
39 Age 33
6’2″ Height 6’2″
170 Weight 170
73″ Reach NA
41″ Leg Reach NA

It’s tough to put money on a guy hitting 40 with no prior MMA experience. Punk trained a little bit of kempo karate, is a striped belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and has been training under renowned MMA gym Roufusport for almost four years. It’s hard to gauge just how good he is.

Jackson isn’t exactly a world beater himself but has a bit more training in pure martial arts like boxing and kickboxing. He didn’t get much of a chance to show his skills when Gall made short work of him in his UFC debut. And outside fighting, he is a videographer and photographer who operates his own website.

Both fighters wouldn’t be in the UFC if it weren’t for the other and this is the fight that sees one of them get “promoted” to a bigger fight and the other, let go. Jackson holds the youth and experience edge though not much on the latter. He is also less shopworn than Punk who has had to deal with shoulder and back injuries.

While Punk is talented and feels like he’s “in the best shape of his life”, his body might disagree. Based simply on their physical conditions, Jackson is a decided favourite.

Punk vs Jackson Betting Trends & Tidbits

Money has been slow on either Punk and Jackson for good reason: neither fighter is exactly a proven commodity. However, there have been more line movement on Punk with sharps predicting the much-maligned “fake fighter” to pull off the improbable.

  • Punk opened at +195 and his line has been bet down by 5.4% since
  • Jackson opened at -250 and his line has been bet up by 2.9% since
  • Underdog UFC fighters are 63-116 (35.2%) through 2018
  • Underdogs have won 9 of 23 (28.1%) bouts in the last three pay-per-views
  • An average of three underdogs win per UFC pay-per-view event

While it’s tough to bet on Punk, this is a dog or pass situation. Jackson hasn’t exactly proven himself as a fighter. On the feet, he probably will light up Punk but once the fight hits the mats, Punk might even have a slight advantage. Either way, this type of low-level fight is best left alone.

But Punk has two things going for him that could sway the fight to his favour: heart and better cornering. Punk trains with a striking savant in Duke Roufus and trains with elite wrestler Ben Askren and former champion Anthony Pettis. Steel sharpens steel. He may not have the skills, but he has the high-level training to make him at least competitive.

Prediction: Jackson is the rightful favourite and should beat up Punk on the feet. But CM Punk will use his wrestling and grappling to make the fight closer than odds indicate. Unless Jackson knocks Punk out, the money should be on the underdog.

Our Record: 15-7

CM Punk (+185)

UFC 225: Whittaker vs Romero 2 Fight Card Predictions

All betting odds via Sports Interaction.

Lock it Up: For Holly Holm (-250) versus Megan Anderson (+185). Holm is the superior striker and is fighting Anderson, who hasn’t fought in 18 months and whose best win is over journeywoman Charmaine Tweet. Holm will come with a better gameplan and outmaneuver Anderson for an easy decision victory.

Holly Holm (-250)

Underdog Pick: despite missing weight Yoel Romero (+155) will upset incumbent champion Robert Whittaker (-205). The Cuban barely missed weight weighing in at 185.2 but fighters who have missed weight are 8-2 in 2018. Romero lost a narrow decision to Whittaker in their first bout but has been more active while Whittaker is coming from an injury. Romero will get the edge in the rematch.

Our Record: 9-10

Yoel Romero (+155)

Don’t Bet on It: Rafael dos Anjos (-110) versus Colby Covington (-120); this should be Covington’s fight to win thanks to his superior wrestling but dos Anjos is a better striker. This is tricky to call and is likely to end in a controversial decision. Best to pass on it and just watch.

Main Card (PPV, 10:00 PM ET)

  • Middleweight Title Fight (185 lbs): (C) Robert Whittaker (-205) vs #1 Yoel Romero (+155)
  • Welterweight Interim Title Fight (170 lbs): #1 Rafael dos Anjos (-110) vs #4 Colby Covington (-120)
  • Women’s Featherweight (145 lbs): Holly Holm (-250) vs Megan Anderson (+185)
  • Heavyweight (265 lbs): #9 Andrei Arlovski (+210) vs #12 Tai Tuivasa (-290)
  • Welterweight (170 lbs): CM Punk (+190) vs Mike Jackson (-260)

Prelims (TSN 5, 8:00 PM ET)

  • Heavyweight (265 lbs): #2 Alistair Overeem (+130) vs #4 Curtis Blaydes (-170)
  • Women’s Strawweight (115 lbs): #3 Claudia Gadelha (-530) vs #6 Carla Esparza (+355)
  • Featherweight (145 lbs): #7 Ricardo Lamas (+160) vs #11 Mirsad Bektic (-215)
  • Heavyweight (265 lbs): Rashad Coulter (-190) vs Chris De La Rocha (+145)

Early Prelims (UFC Fight Pass, 6:15 AM ET)

  • Middleweight (185 lbs): Rashad Evans (+220) vs Anthony Smith (-300)
  • Flyweight (125 lbs): #1 Joseph Benavidez (-265) vs #5 Sergio Pettis (+195)
  • Lightweight (155 lbs): Clay Guida (-160) vs Charles Oliveira (+125)
  • Featherweight (145 lbs): Mike Santiago (+115) vs Dan Ige (-145)

Best Online Sportsbooks for UFC/MMA

CM Punk might be UFC 225’s main attraction but Canadian fight fans know a stacked card when they see one. The free prelims on TSN 5 are fantastic. These online sportsbooks will be busy catering to Canadians offering bets before and throughout the fights. Our reviews help fans decide the bets book for them.

Category : Picks and Parlays

Tag : CM Punk , MMA , UFC Picks

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