Soccer Gambling Strategies: The Art Of Hedging
What is Hedging?
Your only goal in this game is profit. Yes it should be fun as well, but that’s a subjective idea. Net gains are tangible and understanding the rules of hedging can help you guarantee profits if done correctly. In financial markets, hedging is an investment that reduces the risk in an existing trade where one has put up money or collateral.
In the sports betting world, it is a bet against a bet that you have already made. So I have bet on team A as an orginal investment. However to reduce my risk in that “trade” I at some point make a wager against team A, for an equal or lesser amount. In certain scenarios for larger amounts.
There is your standard dictionary definition. Now let’s dive in.
Why to Hedge?
The greatest word to me in the English language is FREEROLL. This means that you can only win in the given circumstance and can not take a loss.
The primary objective of Hedging should always be to Freeroll.
The three kinds of freerolling:
One sided Freeroll: Where you’ve guaranteed a profit ONLY if Team A wins, but lose NOTHING if Team A does not win. A very comfortable place to be. This can be done on the last game of a parlay OR in a single game scenario with a live in game bet when Team A has the lead.
Middling: With an existing bet on Team A, I place a bet on Team B that guarantees me a profit regardless of who wins. Less profit overall then originally intended but a guaranteed win. This can be accomplished on the final game of a parlay OR in a single game scenario with a live in game bet when Team A has the lead.
The Scoop: This is when you have an existing bet on Team A (moneyline or spread) and place the other bet on Team B with the intention of winning both. The most common scenario that this works in is if Team A is a moneyline favorite on back last end of a parlay and you bet Team B on the spread for an amount that won’t take away from your profit if Team A wins and covers.
The secondary objective of Hedging should be to cut your losses.
Sometimes we are just way off. You make a bet and you realize very early that you have no chance of winning. So what do you do? If you can get a live in game line that will minimize your losses than hit the Eject button. And yes, sometimes losing the juice on your hedge is a WIN. Remember our goal is long term profitability. Taking micro losses as oppose to multiple unit losses can help one’s long term standing.
Many of the popular betting sites we suggest offer Cashouts that could actually result in micro gains in otherwise losing propositions.
How and When to Hedge?
The easiest example to illustrate your basic hedge would be in a parlay format:
Every parlay should have an Anchor. The anchor is the final game that will make or break your parlay. From years of experience you should plan this out early in the week. You should look at the entire board and identify 1 game that starts later than all the rest, or perhaps even days later, and use that as your anchor. That way if you win all your games leading up to the anchor you have time to strategize as which of the 3 types of Freeroll hedges you wish to Employ.
One Golden Rule: Only have 1 Anchor
This is not a joke. This past Sunday a good friend of mine had a $20 parlay where the payout was $3300. He wound up making no money because his final 2 plays were both at the same time and there was no logical way to hedge the various outcomes he needed. So a guaranteed $1000 minimum evaded him. A cautionary tale indeed.
For advice and all things punter related you can follow me on twitter @zahir_gilani
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