NFL Week 16 Predictions
As the season winds down, it’s clear which teams are eliminated from postseason contention, and which are in, but there is still a lot that can be decided in these last two weeks. The Denver at Kansas City game is sure to excite, even though it might be low scoring, and eyes will be upon Cleveland as well, as they might become one step away from a 0-16 season. Get ready for some great games on Christmas Eve, and two great matches on Christmas Day to distract you from your relatives at family dinner. We’ll break down the best value picks for this week, and hopefully, all that money you spent on gifts won’t seem that bad.
NFL Odds Week 16
We had a lackluster week for Week 15, going 4-4. We won with the Steelers covering by a single point, but the Falcons, Giants, and Patriots all covered comfortably. Our losses were unfortunately just as symmetric, losing the Dallas game by 1 point, and losing the rest comfortably. With 2 weeks left in the season, we’ll look to get hot again. On to this week.
Week 16 NFL Predictions
We have 7 games for you for Week 16. The Redskins take on the Bears, the Ravens travel to Pittsburgh in an AFC North matchup, the Chargers try to make the Browns’ season even more miserable, the Broncos and Chiefs face off in what should be a low-scoring AFC West affair, the Bengals try to get to a respectable record in Houston, the Packers try to clinch a spot in the playoffs against the Vikings, and the Cowboys host the Lions on the lone game on Boxing Day.
Let’s get into it!
Washington Redskins @ Chicago Bears Prediction
BET WASHINGTON REDSKINS -3 AT SPORTSINTERACTION. The Washington Redskins will be bringing out the bear traps this weekend as they fight to secure a playoff spot. Losing 3 of 4 has dropped them in the Wild Card standings, and they are now a half game back, behind 2 decent teams. Beating up on this Bears team will hopefully help them regain confidence so they can finish off the season at home next week. It seems likely, as they have won their last 6 against Chicago, their longest streak against any club. More specifically, TE Jordan Reed has been good in the last few meetings, chalking up 254 yards on 18 catches and 2 TDs in the last 2 times these teams met. QB Kirk Cousins’, ranked 2nd in the league with 4360 passing yards, and 23 TDs to 10 INTs will also be able to throw against and rip through this Bears defense. Part of his success is the number of open targets he can choose from. This is the only team to have six 40+ reception receivers, three of whom can realistically hit 1000 yards by the end of the season.
The Chicago Bears unfortunately, don’t have much going for them. They do get an extra day rest over the Skins, but that could even hinder them. RB Jordan Howard could probably cut through the terrible Redskin defense, and their pass rush has 3 players with at least 7 sacks. Trends favor the Redskins though, as they are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 against each other, and they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 in Chicago, not to mention 8-2 ATS in their last 10 on the road, and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 overall games. The Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5, but for a bad team, that kind of streak can’t keep up. It won’t be a blowout by any means, but 3 points is just too little for the Bears to be getting here. Take the Washington Redskins at -3.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction
BET BALTIMORE RAVENS +5.5 AT SPORTSINTERACTION. This AFC North matchup will likely be the highlight of your Christmas Day. The Pittsburgh Steelers are looking to clinch the division but will have to fend off their rivals, the scavenging Ravens, who need to beat both their next opponents to win the division. This could be their start though. They are underdogs, but the Baltimore Ravens have a good shot at winning this outright, having won their last 4 against the Steelers. Joe Flacco played decently in the first game against them this season, with Mike Wallace stealing the show, with 124 yards on 4 receptions. Along with straight up wins, they are also 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 against them, and the underdog is also 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 between these teams. The Ravens also dominate their rivals after the spread, going a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 against AFC North foes. That is a trend that should continue on Sunday.
The Steelers, on the other hand, are most likely going to break their ATS win streak of 5 in a row. Don’t forget, Big Ben is only 9-9 against the Ravens. Not even RB Le’Veon Bell was a factor in the last meeting. He had his worst game of the year, running just 32 yards on 14 carries. Baltimore’s 2nd best rush defense will cause him major problems this time around as well. While the Steelers have been playing better as of late, they should falter a bit here. Maybe they’ll get the win, but giving this many points to a hungry Ravens team which has beaten them 4 straight times is too much. Don’t get depressed during Christmas dinner. Take the Baltimore Ravens at +5.5.
San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns Prediction
BET SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -6 AT BET365. Here we go again with the Cleveland Browns. You know, if they get just 1 win, they could potentially tie the 49ers for worst in the league, and at least redeem themselves a bit. It’s not likely though against this Chargers team, and certainly less likely next week in Pittsburgh. If they go 0-16, they will be the 2nd team ever to reach this milestone of misfortune. Robert Griffin III will get the nod again, but while he hasn’t been effective, it’s all their QBs and offense in general that is lacking, ranking 30th in the league. Defense is better, but still a culprit. Teams can average almost 5 rushing yards per carry against this abysmal run defense. LeSean McCoy sliced them up for 280 rushing yards just last week in their Buffalo loss. It seems like more of the same for the Browns. The one thing they have going for them is the weather, as it is a stark contrast to San Diego at this time of year. One other worrying fact is that the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games between these teams.
We’ve said in weeks past that the San Diego Chargers are better than their 5-9 record. They have lost an astonishing 7 times in the 4th quarter after going in with the lead. Philip Rivers is no slouch, having thrown 29 TDs so far, but he is far from perfect in the turnover department. While the weather might be a problem, as mentioned earlier, they have a great 10-3 ATS road record in their last 13. A much more reliable team, their faltering hasn’t been against a team this bad. Look for them to come out ready to make their record more respectable. What’s more? Sharps might be pouring money on the Browns again like they have been doing all season. This could give you a better number. Take the San Diego Chargers at -6.
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
BET DENVER BRONCOS +3.5 AT SPORTSINTERACTION. The last time these teams met, it gave us one of the most entertaining games of the season. The Kansas City Chiefs stumbled out of it with a win from a rickety FG at the end of the OT period. It was a relatively high scoring affair, with both teams hitting above their averages, but otherwise, getting yards has been tough for both these squads. The Chiefs are coming off a tough loss to the Titans, where they lead by 14 after the first quarter, but ended up losing by 2. Their offense has been stagnant, good for 23rd in the league with 331.4 yards per game. They can’t keep the chains moving and are ranked 27th in the league in 3rd down conversions, with 34.8%, and only 44.4% from the red zone. They are an anomaly as well because their defense isn’t great either, ranking 29th in yards allowed, with 375.1, and 124.7 rushing yards allowed. We said to jump on them after the bye because of Andy Reid’s post-bye record, but after last week’s loss, it’s time to jump off. Their record of 10-4 is already an overachievement.
The Denver Broncos are almost exactly as anemic on offense as Kansas City. They are 24th in offensive yards per game with 326.7, right below KC, are 26th in 3rd down conversions, at 34.9%, right above KC, and 29th from the red zone, at 44.2%. Despite the parallels, the Bronco defense is actually good. Ranked 2nd in the league, they only allow 310.9 yards per game, and a paltry 183 passing yards, good for best in the league, and only allow 18.4 points per game. In previous meetings between these teams, the road team is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last 6, the underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last 5, and the Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 in KC. Don’t let this game fool you. Take the Denver Broncos at +3.5.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans Prediction
BET HOUSTON TEXANS -1 AT WILLIAM HILL. The Cincinnati Bengals have had a disappointing year to say the least. After their win against their division rival Browns (which isn’t a big feat), they went on a nasty winless 4 game skid, and now stand eliminated from the playoffs, after making it in for 5 straight years. They couldn’t replace RB Giovani Bernard, not A.J. Green, both downed by injuries. With Green returning Saturday, this team could go on a run to end off the season, but it’s doubtful. Money has already poured on Cincy, moving the line almost 2 points, but it that just gives us a better number. Not only that, but the Bengals are also 1-7 ATS in their last 8 against the Texans, and only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games overall.
Brock Osweiler finally got the bench last week, and gave Tom Savage his time to shine. And shine he did, rallying his team from down 13 points against the Jaguars. At 8-6, they are still very much in the AFC South race, fighting with the Colts and surprising Titans. Look for Savage to do just enough, and let the defense take care of holding the lead. An interesting stat to note, is that the Houston Texans are 20-6-2 ATS in their last 28 after getting over 350 yards in their last game. All signs point to the Texans here, but money is only coming in on Cincy because of the return of A.J. Green. Don’t believe the hype. Take the Houston Texans at -1.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Prediction
BET GREEN BAY PACKERS -6.5 AT SPORTSINTERACTION. Adrian Peterson’s return for the Minnseota Vikings wasn’t all it was cracked up to be last week, as they got pummeled at home by the mediocre Colts, resulting in their worst loss all season. He had 6 carries for 22 yards and a fumble. The Viking defense is still top tier, despite giving up 34 points last week. In their last 2 against the Packers, they only gave up a combined 27 points. They are in freefall though. After starting the season 5-0, they have lost 7 of 9 and could miss the postseason if things don’t turn around. A win here would be very advantageous in the NFC North, but they’ll need their horrid offensive numbers to at least improve to just subpar to have a chance.
Remember a month ago when QB Aaron Rodgers said his sub .500 team could just go undefeated the rest of the season to make the playoffs? Well… he’s getting his wish, as the Green Bay Packers are 4-0 since then, and looking in prime position to get to the postseason this weekend, and clinch the division next weekend against the Lions. Eddie Lacy’s injury was the best thing to happen, as the team rallied behind Rodgers, and it allowed other players to step up, like Ty Montgomery. A few weeks ago, we stated that Green Bay couldn’t be a play until they proved themselves. Well, they’ve proven themselves, and especially in this spot, they are 36-15 ATS in the last 51 after allowing over 350 yards in their last game. Rodgers keeps his words alive. Take the Green Bay Packers at -6.5.
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys Prediction
BET DETROIT LIONS +7 AT SPORTSINTERACTION. The Detroit Lions are hoping to pounce back after their 5 game winning streak was broken by the not so gentle Giants. QB Matthew Stafford is still playing with his ligament injury but still threw for 273 yards last week (and 1 INT) in his last game. The Lions are still a significant 24-9 ATS in their last 33 after scoring less than 15 points in their last game. The underdog is also 5-1 ATS in the last 6 between these teams. Getting a TD seems to be too much for this team that tends to keep it close.
As stated last week, Dak Prescott was going to bring the heat after talks of Tony Romo returning had made it into the press. And Dak definitely did bring the heat for the Dallas Cowboys, completing 32 out of 39 passes for 279 yards. They did fail to cover by a single point, and we see that trend continuing. They are too popular now, and their lines are too inflated. We saw the same thing after winning in Minnesota, but failing to cover by 1 or 2 points. The inflated lines are beginning to cause ATS losses, and giving up 7 to a Lions team that keeps it close seems to be par for the course. The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games, and 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games at home. Dallas is good, yes, but bounds of reason dictate the Lions are the play. Take the Detroit Lions at +7.
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