NFL Week 14 Picks 2016
Week 14 is here and the season is officially in its last month. The Detroit Lions will try to stay top of the NFC North, and Washington will try to make a late run reminiscent of last year, in order to make the playoffs. DeSean Jackson returns to Philly, but will he have a monster game? We have previews and picks for 8 of the best value games this weekend.
NFL Odds Week 14
Last week, we went 5-3 for yet another winnings week. The Buccaneers, Packers, Cardinals, Seahawks, and Colts did it for us easily. Our losses were disappointing, as Buffalo let the Raiders come back to win it and lose the cover, and Dallas only won by 2 after covering for the entire game and losing the cover plate, in a game which should have at least gone to OT. Our Jacksonville pick was the right side, but no regrets as the team itself is a letdown. On to this week now.
Week 14 NFL Predictions
We have 8 picks for you this week. The Cardinals take on the Dolphins, Bears try to chomp into the Lions to ruin their NFC North chances, the Chargers face the reeling Panthers, the lowly Jets at even lowlier 49ers, the Seahawks against the Packers, the Redskins in an NFC East battle against the Eagles, the Vikings facing the Jaguars, and the Monday night game with the Patriots hosting the Ravens. Let’s get into it!
Arizona Cardinals @ Miami Dolphins Prediction
BET ARIZONA CARDINALS +1 AT SPORTSINTERACTION. The Miami Dolphins had been impressive lately, winning 6 in a row, but last week came a rude awakening when they lost by 32 points to the Ravens. They will be looking to get back on track this week to try to secure a Wild Card spot. Coach Gase will most likely rely on Jay Ajayi again to have a big running game, as he’s been instrumental in their streak of wins.
The Arizona Cardinals are coming off a much needed 8 point win over the Redskins last week, but are still underperforming after their 13-3 season last year. It could be called a lucky win, as coach Bruce Arians went for it on 4th down late in the game leading to a score, and then had the Skins’ final drive snuffed out as Patrick Peterson picked them off.
Between these two teams, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Situationally, the Dolphins aren’t spread killers in this spot, going 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games, 14-43-1 ATS in their last 58 home games against a team under .500 on the road, and 6-20 ATS in their last 26 after giving up over 250 yards in their last game. Miami had their run, and now Arizona is making theirs. They won’t fall this hard after their great season last year. Take the Arizona Cardinals at +1.
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions Prediction
BET CHICAGO BEARS +8.5 AT SPORTSINTERACTION. It’s the best against the basement in the NFC North, as the Detroit Lions attempt to avenge a loss to their rivals earlier in the season. They lost 17-14 in that game in Chicago, putting the Lions at 1-3, but they’ve made a furious comeback to get to 8-4 and take control of the division. Coming off a win to the Saints last week for their 8th win, their 7 prior wins had all been 4th quarter comebacks.
The Chicago Bears are looking to repeat their previous defensive win against the Lions, holding them to 14 points in the low scoring affair. Even though Detroit has some key injuries on offense like WR Marvin Jones and RB Theo Riddick, they are still behind a resurgent Matthew Stafford. The Bears have options of their own, in running back Jordan Howard, who ran for 117 yards in their wintery San Francisco win last week. He also had a great rushing game in their win against the Lions. With Jay Cutler and Brian Hoyer out with injuries, Matt Barkley will play again.
While the Lions seem like a good choice, this will most likely be a low scoring game, and 8.5 points is too much to give up. Yes, the Bears are 3-9, but this is a team they’ve already beaten straight up. The Bears are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5, while the Lions are only 4-9 ATS in the last 13 games against division rivals. Chicago will either get the straight up win to make the division more interesting with Minnesota and Green Bay creeping, or they will cover.
San Diego Chargers @ Carolina Panthers Prediction
BET SAN DIEGO CHARGERS +1.5 AT BODOG. We called it for weeks. The Carolina Panthers had their opportunity to make a legitimate run for a playoff spot but just couldn’t stick two wins together in the last few weeks. They are now on a two-game losing streak and should look for that to continue. This is a team that mentally is not there, and knows they can’t recreate last season’s successes at this point. Scoring a mere 7 points last week against Seattle, it was clear Cam Newton wasn’t focused, especially after that dress code fiasco with Riverboat Ron.
The San Diego Chargers aren’t faring that much better, but like we keep reiterating, their record isn’t as accurate as it should be, because of all the 4th quarter losses. They are only 1-2 against NFC South opponents, but the Panthers are an even worse 0-3 against the AFC West. Yes, San Diego is 5-7, but their ATS road record is a stunning 10-2 in their last 12 road games and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 overall. The Cats are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, by contrast, and 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 overall. Carolina will keep plummeting, and as the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 between these teams, there is no reason to take the Panthers.
New York Jets @ San Francisco 49ers Prediction
BET SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -2.5 AT SPORTSINTERACTION. Bryce Petty will be getting the start for the New York Jets on Sunday, after taking over from Ryan Fitzpatrick for the second half on MNF. It made little difference, as they were still blown out 41-10. It has been confirmed that Petty will be the starter for the last 4 games of the season. The last game he started wasn’t that point laden, as he threw for 163 yards (1 TD, 1 INT) in a 9-6 loss to the Rams. Matt Forte will be the real wild card in this game though but will it be enough? The Niner rush defense is worst in the league with the loss of NaVorro Bowman in Week 4, who had the most tackles in the league last season, so that could open things up for Forte.
The 1-11 San Francisco 49ers are without a win since their season opener. There is talk that they might tank the rest of their season to secure a high draft pick, but when you hear that kind of talk, it’s best to take the team. They do not play to lose, and even when losing is beneficial long term, they seem to pull out the wins at that moment.
Interestingly enough, the Jets are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 between these teams and are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, and now they are traveling out West. There is a reason the spread has the 49ers favored here. Look for them to surprise, and get an easy win.
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Prediction
BET BALTIMORE RAVENS +7.5 AT SPORTSINTERACTION. While not a divisional game, this Monday Night Football matchup will be entertaining, to say the least. The New England Patriots know this will be a tough game. QB Tom Brady just doesn’t bring his A-game when the Ravens are in the picture. In 6 regular season games against them, he only has 6 TDs and 3 INTs for a QB rating of 83.6 and was sacked 14 times. He is also coming off a milestone game, passing Peyton Manning last week to claim the all-time wins record, with 201.
If Brady is gonna have a let down game, this is it. Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens will be up for the challenge after coming off their 38-6 win over the Dolphins. After two straight wins, they have a good chance to actually win this game. Brady will be missing two of his main weapons, as Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola will be out. The Ravens defense will be ready to prevent the Pats from piling on the points, as they are prone to do.
Trends between these teams also favor the Ravens almost entirely. The road team is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 between the clubs, and the underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 between them. Baltimore is also a surprising 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 games in New England, and are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 on Monday night primetime. They will shine here again. Take the Baltimore Ravens at +7.5.
Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers Prediction
BET SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -2.5 AT SPORTSINTERACTION.. The Green Bay Packers are heating up right now, and Aaron Rodgers has found his groove, leading the NFL in TD passes in the past 7 games. The Pack are looking to run the table, as Rodgers predicted hopefully back in late November. Clay Matthews is still not playing at peak efficiency, so that could help Seattle balance out their astonishing defense with some hard offense.
Favored by 2.5 in this match, the Seattle Seahawks are looking to improve on their 8-3-1 record and hopefully get a first round bye in the playoffs. The spread is only this low because the game will most likely be low scoring. The Seattle defense, going for a record 5th straight season of least points allowed per game, and responsible for 31 sacks already this season, good for 4th in the league, will keep an already injured Rodgers from performing his best. They might even reinjure his hamstring. At 4-1 ATS in their last 5, what is even more stunning is that they are 21-4-2 ATS in their last 27 after getting over 250 passing yards in their last game. It will be a close, perhaps low scoring game, but the Seahawks will get the cover. Take the Seattle Seahawks at -2.5.
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles Prediction
BET PHILADELPHIA EAGLES +1 AT SPORTSINTERACTION. This NFC East battle of the bottom will be the Washington Redskins‘ opportunity to start a run to the playoffs. They are half a game back of the Buccaneers for the last Wild Card spot. Last season, Washington went on to win 4 straight games to secure themselves a playoff spot, and are looking for a similar outcome here. If anyone can lead them to it, it’s Kirk Cousins. He is ranked third in the league, with 3811 passing yards, and 21 TDs to 8 INTs. He’s had two games of 458 and 449 yards. DeSean Jackson also returned to Philly, after spending 6 seasons with them before being released. He could be the main star in this game if they let him.
After losing 7 of their last 9 games, the Philadelphia Eagles, who started the season red hot, are now barely in the playoffs. Carson Wentz has been playing worse as of late, but still stands at 2901 passing yards for the season, with 12 TDs and 11 INTs. All signs point to Washington, but we all know the danger in that. Reverse line movement is extreme, as almost all the money has been on Washington, but the line has barely moved. Add to that, that this is a division game, and this Philly team who no one thinks has a shot can come out and take this at home. Washington has lost two straight, so aren’t exactly in form themselves. Take the Philadelphia Eagles at +1.
Minnesota Vikings @ Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction
BET MINNESOTA VIKINGS -3.5 AT SPORTSINTERACTION. Sure, it’s embarrassing to admit, but we were on the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, and it’s a loss that was rightly deserved. That mistake won’t happen again, as they are fade material for this week. They are a team that statistically plays decently, so seem like decent plays ATS, but it’s the x-factors that destroy any value on this team. That is why we are fading them this week. They played the Broncos well on defense last week, but a pick 6, along with 2 other turnovers cost them the game, sending them to 7 straight losses. With the plunge to 2-10 on the season, they are the only team to reach 10 losses every season for the past 6 years.
The Minnesota Vikings are dynamite on defense as well but are still lacking that offensive power to win games. Sitting at 6-6, they are still in playoff contention, but they need a late push here. Tied with Green Bay beneath the Lions, they are also one game back of the NFC Wild Card spot. QB Sam Bradford is only averaging 6.77 yards per attempt, ranking 27th, but has 13 TDs against only 3 INTs. The problem is their offensive line, which has seen Bradford sacked 28 times.
Minnesota will want revenge after that crushing loss to the Cowboys, in which Bradford was clearly in the right while complaining about a face mask hold on the last play of the game which would have tied it up. They still did cover the spread though. They are still 36-15 ATS in their last 51 overall. The Jaguars don’t have anything to offer here, and they are only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 at home and last 7 overall. Do yourself a favor and take the Minnesota Vikings at -3.5.
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