StatsGuru | Sat 21/01/2017 - 06:57 EST

NFL Picks: Packers at Falcons Point Spread

NFL Picks: Packers at Falcons Point Spread
Giving all due respect, to the global spectacle that is Super Bowl Sunday, NFL Championship Sunday is our favorite day of the sports betting year. What’s not to like as we get two high intensity matchups that will decide who moves on to Super Bowl LI. First up, battling in the NFC Championship Game, we preview and make an NFL pick for the Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons fight that fires up at 3:40 PM ET on January 22, 2017, at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, GA.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons Odds

Meeting for their 32nd matchup since 1966, the fourth time in NFL playoff history, and the second time this season; the Packers and Falcons are somewhat familiar foes. Though some of the cast has changed, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan are battling head-to-head for the second time in the NFL playoffs. Green Bay annihilated Atlanta 48-21 during the 2011 NFL Divisional Playoffs in the first meeting, which was also contested at the Georgia Dome. Points will be plentiful in this rematch.

Rodgers & Crew then won three straight regular season shootouts, by a 90-82 combined margin, before the Black Birds earned a small measure of revenge during a 33-32 Week 8 win at home this season. There were eleven scoring drives in that contest but neither team posted two scores in a row – which is an extremely rare occurrence in the no-parity NFL world. Though injuries are big a factor, the high price of the Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons odds is somewhat surprising.

My Team's Next MatchAtlanta Falcons

Following a sluggish 4-6 start to the NFL 2016 campaign, which ended with an NFC North Division title, the Packers roll into the Peach State riding an eight game winning streak. That run includes a 38-13 Wild Card win at Lambeau Field vs the New York Giants and a 34-31 Divisional Weekend victory over the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Although part of the game, injuries have taken some shine of this match as stud receivers Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams are both banged up.

Rarely letting their guard down, during an 11-5 regular season run, Atlanta claimed the NFC South Division title and a bye during the first week of the 2017 NFL playoffs. Appearing well rested, the Falcons picked up where they left off as their high octane offense was on full out display during a 36-20 dismantling of the Seattle Seahawks at the Georgia Dome last Saturday. Atlanta has health concerns with super star WR Julio Jones as he will be less than 100% due to a lingering toe injury.

Packers at Falcons Prediction

BET GREEN BAY PACKERS +6.0 (-110) ATS AT WILLIAM HILL (Atlanta 44-21)

Punters can only imagine what the spread price would be on this contest if both of the teams were fully healthy. There is no doubt that it would have made our Packers at Falcons prediction a heck of a lot easier. Though not the caliber of Nelson and Adams, Green Bay backup receivers Trevor Davis (24 YDS – 1 TD) and Jeff Janis (30 YDS – 1 TD) both made modest contributions during the Week 8 meeting. It was one year ago, almost to the day, when Janis hauled in seven catches, for 145 yards and two scores, during the Packers 26-20 NFC Divisional playoff loss to the Cardinals in Arizona. Including our Packers vs Cowboys pick – we’ve been dialled in on Green Bay during the playoffs.

Green Bay vs Atlanta William Hill 2017 NFC Championship Odds

Atlanta will come at Green Bay hard with star running back Devonta Freeman (and Tevin Coleman) before turning to their quick strike capabilities against the Packers 31st ranked pass defense. The Falcons rushing attack will also be key to keeping Aaron Rodgers off the field – regardless of who is catching his passes. That’s due to Atlanta giving up 25.4 points per game during the regular season thanks to a 28th ranked pass defense that’s dismally on par the Packers. A tough call, as was the case with our Steelers vs Patriots AFC Championship prediction, we are taking the +6.0 points being offered at William Hill and backing Green Bay in what will be a classic back and forth battle.  

NFC Championship Future Odds 2017

With just Green Bay and Atlanta remaining, the 2017 NFC Championship NFL futures odds are now the money line prices for the Packers vs Falcons title game. We find it very interesting that our top ranked UK and Canadian based sportsbooks differ by such a huge amount on the favorite to represent the NFC during Super Bowl LI on February 5, 2017, at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.

 
Falcons -180 -190 -250 -230
Packers +150 +165 +210 +190

After posting the NFC Championships futures odds, we did a triple-check of the numbers and then checked them a fourth time. The discrepancy between the odds at Bodog and SportsInteraction, compared to the lines at William Hill and Bet365, is equal parts astonishing and bewildering. We then looked at the prices for the AFC Championship match and found that the difference between the UK and Canada bookmakers was much smaller. The maximum separation on the Patriots vs Steelers contest is (-25) which is a lot closer than the (-70) spread on the Packers vs Falcons match. 

Looking at the gap, that is almost as expansive as the ocean that separates the two countries, we wonder if there is something(s) the British bookmakers know that the Canuck oddsmakers don’t. We are about to find out. While the odds are shrouded in mystery, this is a prime example of why bettors should have a stable of reputable online sportsbooks. Packers backers leave money on the table if they do not have an account at one of the UK shops – bettors flying with the Falcons will pay more if they don’t place their bets with one of the Canadian books. No matter which side you are on, our Live scoreboard below will update in real time during the Packers vs Falcons fight.

Results / FixturesNFL

Category : Picks and Parlays

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