MLB Picks Today – May 21, 2017
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
My Team's Next MatchToronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays (18-26) look to salvage a game from the Orioles (25-16), who are looking poised to get the sweep of their 3 game series on Sunday. Baltimore’s in the driver’s seat in the AL East, while the Jays are still looking up at them from 5th place in the division, and we’re over halfway through May.
Toronto is still dealing with injuries that have disabled different members of the roster all season, including Aaron Sanchez, who went back on the DL on Friday. Fortunately for the Blue Birds, Russell Martin, who has been delivering for the Jays earlier, returned from the DL on Saturday, while Kevin Pillar came back from a 2 game suspension.
Jose Bautista is coming into form as well, and is on a 4 game hitting streak. He’s 9 for 15 in that span, and has 4 home runs and 10 RBIs in his last 9 games. The Jays need this from Bautista at a bare minimum.
The Baltimore Orioles, by contrast, are sitting pretty at the top of the division. This is in part because of their league best home record of 15-3. Back from a 1-6 road trip, they’ve already shown how much they like Camden Yards, by beating the Blue Jays twice in a row.
Wellington Castillo has been the story this series for Baltimore, with 2 home runs in Friday’s game, one of which decided the game in extras, and had a 3 run homer on Saturday to help in the Orioles’ 7-5 comeback win. Mark Trumbo has also been effective this series, going 6 for 9.TORONTO BLUE JAYS (+115) SportsInteraction
With Marco Estrada (2-2, 3.60 ERA) starting for the Blue Jays, it could be hit or miss. The Toronto offense has been relatively stagnant in terms of run support for Estrada, only scoring 2 or fewer runs in 5 of his 9 starts. He also hasn’t been playing up to par recently.
The one thing going in Estrada’s favor is his record against the Orioles. He is 4-1 with a 2.84 ERA against them in his career. This season, he’s 2 no decisions against them because of the aforementioned low run support, but held Chris Davis, Adam Jones, and Manny Machado to 8 for 64 combined.
Opposing him is Wade Miley (1-1, 3.02 ERA), but his control issues could get the better of him. His last outing was a loss at Detroit, in which he failed to get out of the 5th inning for the 4th straight time, and gave up 4 runs and 8 hits. Miley’s control issues are quite real, as he’s walked 19 in his last 22.2 innings pitched. He’s walked 27 total, good (or bad) for worst in the American League.
Against Toronto, Miley’s had some trouble as well. The left hander is only 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA against the Canadian team. He did get the 6-4 win at Rogers Centre in mid-April in his only appearance against Toronto this season. Kendrys Morales is 7 for 16 against him.
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Judging from the price, the Blue Jays have a decent shot at winning this one. They are 4-1 in Estrada’s last 5 starts against the Orioles. Baltimore is also 0-6 in Miley’s last 6 starts when their opponent allows 5 or more runs in their last game. They are also 2-7 in their last 7 games against a right handed starting pitcher.
Despite the Blue Jays’ problems, their offense hasn’t been as abysmal as it was at the start of the season. Even though Estrada hasn’t produced recently, his record against Baltimore is sound, and he’s already faced them twice this season, in games he should have gotten the win instead of no decisions.
Miley has had terrible form recently, and a bad career record against the Jays. The only thing he has going for him is that he’s seen and beaten the Blue Jays already this season, but he should easily be dealt with this time. Baltimore’s home record is intimidating, but Miley won’t be the one to protect it. Take the Toronto Blue Jays at +115 at Sports Interaction.
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