Darley Alcibiades Stakes 2018

Darley Alcibiades Stakes 2018

There are only a few racing events a year that horse players unanimously circle on their calendars and Keeneland's October meeting certainly is among that group. Racing returns to the the pristine grounds of the historic Lexington venue Friday, Oct.5, with the Darley Alcibiades headlining the day.

The Grade 1 race for two year-old fillies will feature a full field of 14 hopefuls set to contest the mile and one sixteenth tilt over the main track. From a race betting standpoint this race is about as good as it gets.

Let’s meet the field and dig into the main contenders:

  • 1-Reflect 12/1
  • 2-Meadow Dance 15/1
  • 3-Restless Rider 3/1
  • 4-My Wynter Rose 30/1
  • 5-Kim K 12/1
  • 6-Into Trouble 15/1
  • 7-Boujie Girl 6/1
  • 8-Lady TNT 4/1
  • 9-Catherinethegreat 5/1
  • 10-Malocchio 12/1
  • 11-Somewhere 15/1
  • 12-Abbo 30/1
  • 13-Chocolate Kisses 20/1
  • 14-Bella Ciao 15/1 
Reflect To Win the Darley Alcibiades Stakes Odds
12/1

Betting Tips

Sorting through the field

These types of two year-old races – the ones where virtually none of the runners have tried the distance – are always about projection. In this particular renewal of the Alcibiades, only 4 of the 14 runners have raced at least once around a two-turn distance. Only Chocolate Kisses (13/1) has won at a distance greater than 7 furlongs.

Restless Rider is not a bad looking favorite. The Kenny McPeek trainee has won 2 of 3 starts and finished second last-out in the Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes at Saratoga. This filly is bred to handle additional real estate and McPeek is always good stretching them out (17% sprint to route). 

In addition, Restless Rider will recieve Lasix for the first time in her career – a 27% angle for McPeek. The bottom line is this filly seems well-meant for this race. Kenny McPeek is a Lexington native who always shows up with his best at Keeneland.  

Looking for a price

Once you get past the favorite, this race becomes wide open. Many of the primary contenders are fillies that like to flash early speed, so the pace could be very lively. That scenario could only benefit the Restless Rider, but she is far from a cinch.

Catherinethegreat ran poorly last out in the Spinaway against Restless Rider, but was compromised by a bad start. The Mark Casse trainee has worked very well for this race and adds blinkers (17% move for Casse). It’s clear that racing near the early lead is what this filly likes to do, but I’d look for jockey Julien Leparoux to shoot for a stalking position.

Boujie Girl is another contender looking to bounce back from a subpar effort. Trained by Peter Miller, Boujie ships in from California after a dull third-place effort in the Del Mar Debutante. Boujie Girl had been sharp in her two previous starts, winning her debut and recording a fast time finishing third in the Grade 2 Sorrento Stakes.

Picks

Sometimes you have to take what the races are giving you. In this case, I think Restless Rider is the pick. Considering the field size, she should be a fair price – I’ll say between 5/2 and 7/2 by post time. Be sure to consult our racebook partners for betting bonuses and additional information.

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