Claiborne Breeder’s Futurity 2018
Horse players gravitate towards races like the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity Sat, Oct.6 at Keeneland (5:14 EST post). And why not? There's a big field (14 horses), a lot of unpredictability (two year-olds going long) and the opportunity to snag great betting value. On top of all that, the stakes are high in this Breeders' Cup Win-And-You're-In event.
As the lukewarm odds suggest, the race betting public may have a hard time sorting out these juveniles.
- 1-Signalman 15/1
- 2-Sombeyay 5/1
- 3-Fluminense 10/1
- 4-Unionizer 10/1
- 5-Dream Maker 5/1
- 6-Everfast 12/1
- 7-Knicks Go 30/1
- 8-Tobacco Road 12/1
- 9-Moonster 10/1
- 10-Mr. Ankeny 12/1
- 11-Borracho 20/1
- 12-Derby Date 20/1
- 13-Mind Control 7/2
- 14-Standard Deviation 10/1
Handicapping the race
Starting with the tepid favorite, Mind Control became a grade 1 winner last out in just his third career start by taking the Hopeful Stakes Sept.3 at Saratoga.
Afte finishing second in his maiden voyage, he’s won two consecutive starts and certainly has the speed figures and credentials to legitimize his status as the favorite.
Nothing against this talented youngster, but I’m not buying him in this race. The outside post position and his penchant for running on the lead will both work to his disadvantage against this field.
With the presence of so many horses who seem intent on making the early lead, it only makes sense to look for a horse capable of sitting back and passing rivals in the stretch. Lightly-raced as he may be, I’ll take Standard Deviation (10/1 ML) for this assignment.
The Chad Brown trainee has raced just once, scoring a professional debut win by tracking the early leaders and bounding away to win by two lengths. The waters will be much deeper in this race of course, but Brown knows how to spot horses and this guy clearly has huge potential.
Further, Standard Deviation is bred to handle the additioanl distance. He’s a son of former Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Curlin and a maternal grandson of lengendary distance sire A.P. Indy. He gets my money at what should certainly be a nice price.
Sombeyay is another horse I like in this race, albeit at a much shorter price than what Standard Deviation figures to be.
Trained by Todd Pletcher, Sombeyay finished behind Mind Control in the Hopeful, but was making up ground in the stretch – something few other runners were able to do. This colt has a classy look to him and should improve with added ground.
Be sure to checking betting bonuses with our wagering partners of choice. Good luck!