Malik Tz | Mon 01/05/2017 - 04:50 EDT

Champions League Predictions: Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Odds

Champions League Predictions: Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Odds
Atletico Madrid have been UEFA CL monsters over the past 4 seasons, making 2 finals with a chance for a 3rd this season. On Tuesday May 2nd, in the semifinal round they play the team that has knocked them out in everyone of those seasons, defending Champions and arch nemesis, Real Madrid.

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Odds

My Team's Next MatchReal Madrid

On Tuesday May 2nd at 2:45pm tune in for this week’s Feature Picture. You know that Hollywood movie where the rich, spoiled kid who the audience hates comes in opposition with the protagonist, the hard working kid with a good heart and a family with no money.

Think of all the obstacles that kid must overcome to get the girl. He has to bust his ass and work a job and a paper route just so he can save up to buy a car that the rich kid’s father already bought him. But somehow, in the end, the girl winds up choosing the hero because for all the rich kid’s flash and appeal, he lacks that special quality that she has spotted in our less advantaged hero.

Well that girl is the Champions League trophy, the rich kid is Real Madrid, and our blue collar hero is Atletico and if the last 3 seasons has taught me anything, it’s that Hollywood endings are fake and Life isn’t fair. If Hollywood endings were real than Diego Simeone would have won the trophy last season and fulfilled the rags to riches tale that we all love so much.

But instead, the rich kid from the same City, with all the lucky breaks one could ask for, won again. Maybe the 3rd time will be a charm for Atleti or maybe the Galacticos will keep them suffering for another year, but the 1st leg will not decide that alone. But still, I see a very tight game.

UNDER 2.5 GOALS (-125) BET365

Atleti are playing some of their best football at the moment and in this competition, they have put up staggeringly good defensive numbers. Having just played at the Bernabeu a few weeks ago and coming away with a 1-1 result, they will be aiming for the same. 

In their last 11 meetings the Bernabeu in all competitions these 2 sides have played to the Under in 8 of those games. Every Champions League game they have played over the last 4 years has gone Under 2.5 in 90 minutes. They play fierce, intense matches where goals do not come easy and you can not peel your eyes away from the screen.

Bet365 Qualification Match-ups Odds

Sportsbooks are in it to make money and they have made this very evident by the lines they have offered. There is little to no value to be found.

 
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid -175  +137 
Monaco vs Juventus +225 -275 

To think at the beginning of the knockout stages you could have taken Monaco at over 60/1 to reach the final, which by the way, was one of my recommendations…

You’d still find yourself having to hedge Juventus at -275 and then if they make the final you’d have to hedge at basically that same price with whichever Madrid team they came up against, essentially soaking up a fair chunk of your profit. I don’t have a crystal ball but the best value, and I use that term lightly, is Atletico Madrid +137, but if you bet them to advance over Real the last 3 seasons, you would have lost every time. The psychological edge is in Real’s corner which means I need to watch the 1st leg and find evidence that something will be different this time around.

My best advice is to steer clear of these lines and just bet game by game, for which you can get my picks here, this week and next. Good Luck.

For up to the minute picks and all things footy you can follow me on twitter @zahir_gilani

Category : Picks and Parlays

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