Los Alamitos Futurity 2018 Bets

Los Alamitos Futurity 2018 Bets

Not surprisingly the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity (Dec.8, 2:28 PT post) looks like another unnecessary reminder that Bob Baffert owns these types of races. The sliver-haired wizard will saddle two imposing colts -Improbable (6/5 ML) and Mucho Gusto (3/1) ML - in the six-horse field, and seems about 80-90 percent likely to come away with a win. These two are certainly worth noting in the Kentucky Derby Futures market.

While neither of Baffert’s colts have raced around two turns yet, such details are laughably irrelevant when handicapping the Hall of Fame trainer’s horses. Baffert connects at a freakish 31% clip when moving runners from route to sprint races, and appears to have two superior runners in this spot.

Betting Tips

Analyzing the field

Improbable and Mucho Gusto are both well-bred horses who seem next in line to carry the Baffert torch toward the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown series next year. Both have started twice, and neither has tasted defeat, with Mucho Gusto taking the Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes at Del Mar last out, and Improbable shipping to Churchill Downs to win the Street Sense Stakes. More details on those runners in a moment, but here is the field at a glance:

  1. Improbable 6/5
  2. Savagery 8/1
  3. Dueling 6/1
  4. King of Speed 15/1
  5. Extra Hope 7/2
  6. Mucho Gusto 3/1

Mucho Gusto is a pure speed type of horse, and has had the lead at virtually every point-of-call in each of his first two races. Expect this precocious colt to shoot for the early lead again under jockey Joe Talamo.

If anyone is prepared to match strides with Mucho Gusto through the first half mile, it’s likely Savagery (8/1), but even that speedy foe will likely be content to stalk from a second or third-place position while taking the blinkers off for trainer Peter Miller.

Mucho Gusto To Win the Los Alamitos Futurity Odds
3/1

Improbable has recorded the fastest Beyer Speed Figure in the field to date, earning a 93, while crushing the Street Sense field by over 7 lengths Nov.2 at Churchill. This is a big-time runner that seems correctly spotted as the morning line fave.

The pick

I can’t get past Improbable in this race, and I love the fact that Baffert thought enough of this runner to ship to Churchill Downs on Breeders’ Cup Friday. Perhaps that race was just a chance for Baffert to see how his talented pupil would take to the dirt where they assuredly aspire to be on the first Saturday in May next year. This colt is fast and has shown a very professional rating gear in each of his two races.

Improbable gets it done and is certainly one to watch moving forward.

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