2018 Hollywood Turf Cup
If one were to simply study speed figures here, you’d be left with the impression that at least 5 of the 8 runners have a legitimate chance to win. Beach View (6/1), Bigger Picture (5/2), Ashleyluvssugar (9/2), Ya Gotta Wann (4/1) and Chicago Style (3/1) have all recorded Beyer Speed Figures between 96-99 in recent starts.
Sorting out the field
So what gives? Bigger Picture and Ashleyluvssugar appear to have a class edge, but they both enter this race on 7-race losing streaks. That’s not exactly the kind of horse I like to take a short price on in a wide-open event.
Here’s the entire field:
- Beach View 6/1
- Krewe Chief 20/1
- Bigger Picture 5/2
- Can’thelpbelieving 8/1
- Ashleyluvssugar 9/2
- Marckie’s Water 12/1
- Ya Gotta Wanna 4/1
- Chicago Style 3/1
Chicago Style and Beach View are the up-and-comers of the group. Chicago Style, a former claimer, has won 5 of 10 starts for trainer Thomas Proctor and enters this race following a deceptively good fifth-place finish in the Lure Stakes going a mile Nov.2 at Santa Anita. Chicago Style should improve with the added distance and while making his second start of a layoff greater than 180 days (19% move for Proctor).
I like what Beach View did winning the Grade 3 Cougar II Handicap at Del Mar last-out, but there are two problems: that race was on dirt, and Beach View hasn’t been seen since the July 25 triumph.
Bottom line pick
All signs point to Chicago Style for me. The five year-old gelding likes to win races and, in fact, was beaten just a neck in this spot a year ago. He seems to be coming into the race in good order and will be right on the wire. I’d like to get better than 3/1 here, but that’s probably a fair price.
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