2018 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf

2018 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf

Unlike the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, the male version has been dominated by European-based horses. Namely, those runners hailing from the Aidan O'Brien barn have found the winner's circle 4 times in 10 editions of the race, with John Gosden trainees winning twice. From a future betting and handicapping standpoint, let's dig into the 2018 renewal (set for Nov.2 at Churchill Downs) and see where the value lies.

Bovada and Bodog’s current lines on this race scream uncertainty – moreso than any other Breeders’ Cup event. The sites list only 7 betting choices with the opportunity to request odds on other runners. How wide-open is this race? Advertise is the top choice at a robuts +700 (risk $100 to win $700). Let the race betting games begin!

Betting Tips

A look at the odds

Here’s a look the field currently assigned future betting odds on Bodog and Bovada:

  • Advertise +700
  • Cape of Good Hope +800
  • Mohawk +800
  • Forty Under +1200
  • Henley’s Joy +1600
  • Somelikeithotbrown +1600
  • Opry +2000

Advertise Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Odds
+700

This is one race where I’ll definitely wait for the pre-entries to fill (Oct.22) to see which connections have clear intentions on making the starting gate Nov.3 at Churchill. That said, I’d be remiss not to frame this discussion around trainer Aidan O’Brien’s Broome who is noticeably absent from the list of contenders above.

Broome has just a single win in five career starts, but ran great in the Group 1 Quatar Prix Jean-Luc last-out at Longchamp. This is a horse on the upswing and should benefit from the addition of Lasix if he makes the trip to Louisville. At this juncture, I’m betting that O’Brien is feeling pretty good about this runner. Ignore at your own peril.

Bottom line

O’Brien, seemingly loaded for this race each year, also has Cardini who has won 1 of 8 starts and finished third in the Group 3 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster Sept.15. From where I’m sitting, the aforementioned Broome seems like his better shot. Jockey Ryan Moore is the regular pilot for both horses, so it will be interesting to see his choice of mounts if both make the trip.

Another interesting Euro who is not listed at Bovada or Bodog is the unbeaten Madhmoon who won the Group 2 Champion Juvenile Stakes at Leopardstown in just his second career start. This runner seems to have limitless talent and will be a major player.

For more expert picks, check back frequently!

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