Matthew Manouli | Mon 17/07/2017 - 04:28 EDT

2017 MLB Trade Deadline Betting Cheat Sheet

2017 MLB Trade Deadline Betting Cheat Sheet
Welcome to the 2nd half of the MLB season! We'll be taking a change of pace as the season gears back up, and will be looking at trades as the July 31st deadline approaches. Who's buying? Who's selling? And, most importantly for us, what are the chances going forward? Let's get into it!

MLB Trade Strategy

With the All-Star break comes a better idea of which teams will become buyers and become serious contenders, and those teams who will go into sale mode and supply buyers with missing pieces in exchange for future growth.

Teams also trade certain players who haven’t been performing up to par. So what’s already taken place? In a South Side-North Side deal, the Chicago White Sox dealt left-handed pitcher Jose Quintana (4-8, 4.49 ERA) to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for 4 position playing prospects: Dylan Cease, Bryant Flete, Eloy Jimenez, and Matt Rose. This was done to shake up their starting rotation, which statistically hasn’t fared as well as it did during their World Series season in 2016. 

Also of note, 44 year old Bartolo Colon (2-8, 8.14 ERA) was traded to the Minnesota Twins, after a lackluster season with the Atlanta Braves. In his first game for Rochester in AAA, he got shelled for 4 runs on 4 hits, and already carries a 9.82 ERA. 

Another interesting trade sees the New York Yankees acquiring 1B Garrett Cooper from the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for reliever Tyler Webb. The Yankees are making a push in the division and with all their first base problems this season, this trade could be beneficial.

The Brewers are also in good shape, and Webb has been an excellent pitcher in the minors, despite struggling a bit during his Yankees games. 

Who’s Next?

With the finished trades out of the way, it’s time to look at potential moves. Our North Side and South Side Chicago teams still aren’t done shaking things up.

Even with the Cubs acquiring Quintana, they are still reportedly going after Oakland Athletics right-handed starter Sonny Gray. This is likely to replace current starters Jake Arrieta and John Lackey who will become free agents at the end of the season. There’s been interest in Gray from the Astros and Brewers as well. The White Sox aren’t through selling either, as Melky Cabrera and Todd Frazier are reportedly being shopped around. 

The Baltimore Orioles are outside of the playoff picture at the moment, so it’s natural there have been reports that they have been shopping Zach Britton. Surprisingly, the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have a solid pitching staff all around seem to be asking about the right-hander. He’ll most likely be used as setup relief before their closer. 

The Texas Rangers are hovering around .500 and are third in their division, but still have a shot at the Wild Card spot. They are reportedly listening to offers for starters Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels. Darvish is a free agent at the end of the season though. As for Hamels, his no-trade clause includes 20 teams, plus with his $23.5 M cost in 2018 and $20 M club option in 2019, he’ll be a tough sell.

Pablo Sandoval was DFA by the Red Sox as well, and are hearing potential offers for him. The club has decided to pay the $48.66 M left on his deal. The 3B could end up back at San Francisco, surprisingly enough, as he played some of his best baseball there. The Giants also have nothing to lose. San Diego might also pick up Kung Fu Panda as they’re in dire need of a man at 3B.

As for your Toronto Blue Jays, we’ve all seen how their season is going. After a rough start, they will be looking to sign off some impending free agents like Francisco Liriano and Marco Estrada. The season’s not completely over yet, as they’re only 5 games out of a Wild Card spot, and should be due for a second half run, which could bring them close enough that anything would be possible.

Trade Effects

So how are these trades and trade rumors going to affect odds going forward? We didn’t touch on a lot of teams, but for example, if the Nationals acquire a couple of decent relief pitchers, they’ll have a great well rounded roster. The NL West is the division to look at though, with the D-Backs, Rockies, and Dodgers all vying for top spot. It’s LA’s deep pockets which could dictate the rest of the season though. The Marlins are reportedly keeping most of their big name players. 

My prediction is that the Cubs will have a lot of value going forward… if we fade them. They are still World Champs, and with their new pitching acquisitions (potentially), they’ll be overvalued for sure. Advanced stats show their faltering this season isn’t mainly because of their starters, it’s because of the defense behind them. Last season, their defense was some of the best in the league, and that inflated people’s perception of their starting pitchers.

This year, the Cubs’ defense isn’t as good, and that is the problem, not the pitching, so fixing the wrong area won’t help the team, but people will think they are all fixed up now. Unless they find a way to fix their defense, fade the Cubs, who will surely be overvalued. Be sure to get to Sports Interaction because second half action is already underway!

Results / FixturesMLB

Let us know who you think will be traded and what the effects will be on the odds in the comment section below!

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