How to Bet on NFL Season Win Totals

As part of a well-balanced preseason portfolio, NFL handicappers should take advantage of proposition betting options that flow freely at top ranked online sportsbooks. While Super Bowl, Conference and Division Championships odds have an extended shelf life, certain props disappear once the first game is played. Season Win Totals fall into that category so be sure to buy your tickets prior to Week 1.

Super Bowl Primer: Preseason Win Total Betting

More to them, than just looking at wins and loses from last year, forecasting each teams total victories includes a journey through time. Highly researchable, though gut feelings can still be included in final decisions, navigating the Total Team Wins prop board is fairly straightforward. These numbers are often posted shortly after the National Football League Brass in New York release the new schedule. Some benefits to this ‘Caping option include a full season of action following the teams – plus hedge opportunities if the bet is slipping away late in the year.

Failure, if a proper research path isn’t planned, can occur by over-estimating teams that may be resting on past laurels, misjudging player movement and not following the preseason. This Over/Under betting option is super simple from a “placing yours bets” standpoint. Prior to the season, all 32 NFL teams are tagged with a WIN total. The odds often include a dreaded half-win hook – which needs to be noted during the research phase. As our 2018 AFC example below illustrates, for New England to surpass their lofty 11.5 tag, the Patriots need to win 12 games. 

While that may seem logical, some bettor’s see the big first number and accidently miss the hook, just like a fish eh? Bettors also need to remember that some variable “juice” is involved on these wagers as the money lines can usually be found between (-200) and (+150) depending on the win total. Having a “stable” of online sportsbooks is valuable here as bettor’s can easy do some price comparison. An example occurred in 2018 as Philadelphia (10.5) was +110 O and -140 U at Bet365, while SportsInteraction was offering the same total but with -107 and -125 prices.

American Football Conference Team Win Total Odds

Although they all play in the same league, there are some subtle differences between the American and National Football Conferences. The AFC is traditionally known as a smash mouth, grind it out, low scoring group – with a few exceptions on all mantras each year. In 2017, five of top seven lowest scoring defenses (JAC, LAC, NEP, PIT and BAL) hailed from the AFC. Of those five squads, New England and Jacksonville also had top five offenses. As such, it was wise to dig deeper into their 2018 schedule as part of a proper path when calculating their win total chances. 

Not one to knock others, the AFC can also be home to some of the worst teams in the NFL. That is evident by the fact that Bill Belichick and the Tom Brady Bunch have won the AFC East Division nine straight times. That was with no less than 12 wins each season – except 2009 when the Pats went 10-6. After that, New England posted four 12-win seasons, and two with 13 and 14 each. in 2018, Bet365 posted the Jets, Bills and Dolphins all with a 6.5 win total, partly due to playing the Pats twice, and we bet on all three of those squads falling short of earning seven victories.

Over the last ten seasons, NEP 22-8 went straight up versus their AFC East stable mates. Our moral, to the Land Of Chowder story, is teams that dominate a certain division, year after year, should be considered as OVER contenders on their win total odds. There are many other research keys that need consideration when jumping in on Win Total wagering. That includes scouring each teams full season slate to evaluate the talent they will face during the long 17-week NFL grind. Make a note of squads with “cupcake” schedules and include that in the decision making process.

AFC Division 2018 Win Totals and Title Odds Bet365 Sportsbook 24/08/18

AFC East  Odds  AFC North  Odds  AFC South  Odds  AFC West  Odds
Patriots (11.5) -700 Steelers (10.5) -300 Jaguars (8.5) +180 LA Rams (-9.5) +180
Dophins (6.5) +850 Ravens (8.5) +450 Texans (8.5) +180 Cheifs (7.5) +300
Bills (6.5) +1400 Bengals (6.5) +900 Titans (7.5) +350 Raiders (8.5) +275
Jets (6.5) +1400 Browns (5.5) +1100 Colts (6.5) +450 Broncos (7.5) +320

National Football Conference Team Win Total Wagering

Traditionally comprised of higher scoring squads – understanding offense is the biggest key when wagering on National Football Conference win total props. Although their numbers will be lofty on betting boards, teams with an all-star quarterback, plus a solid compliment of running backs and receivers, should always be looked at when purchasing OVER tickets. Green Bay comes to mind here as the Packers won at least ten games each year (except two) from 2009 through the 2017 NFL season. Since the Packers rarely rebuild – Green Bay often deserves OVER consideration.

Backing losing teams is generally not wise, however, Win Total bettors can boost their bankroll by checking out downtrodden squads. Perusing at the Super Bowl 52 campaign, Chicago is an example as the Bears won just three games in 2016. Entering the 2017 NFL season, with one of the worst offenses in the league, the Bears were tagged with a 5.5 Win Total. Understanding the Windy City Crew was weak, and that they played in the tough NFC Central, UNDER cashed in as Chicago managed just five victories. We bet the Bears UNDER 6.5 (+105) prior to the 2018 campaign.

Searchable on the internet, bettors are advised to scan sites that post advanced odds on every regular season match. While the spread doesn’t impact Win Total props – handicappers should look at the ATS odds and play close attention to teams with the most chalk prices. Considering the NFL 2018 odds, at the time of writing on 25/08/18, Minnesota caught our eye as the Vikings were posted as chalk in eleven of their first 15 games. That strong favorite tilt, plus getting Chicago at home in Week 17, made the Vikings 10.5 total a strong lean toward the OVER prop price.

NFC Division 2018 Win Totals and Title Odds Bet365 Sportsbook 24/08/18

NFC East  Odds  NFC North  Odds  NFC South  Odds  NFC West  Odds
Eagles (10.5)  -170 Vikings (10.5) +137 Saints (9.5) +180 Chargers (9.5) -140
Cowboys (8.5) +333 Packers (10.5) +137 Falcons (9.5) +180 49ers (8.5) +275
Giants (6.5) +650 Lions (7.5) +600 Panthers (8.5) +260 Seahawks (8.5) +425
Redskins (6.5) +700 Bears (6.5) +700 TB Bucs (6.5) +700 Cardinals (5.5) +1200

Cash In At Canada Friendly Online Sportsbooks

Undeniably the King of sports betting, the National Football League is far from the only game in town. That is due to the fact the NFL campaign overlaps several major sports seasons. The Canadian Football League and Major League Baseball are first to be impacted as the race to the Grey Cup and World Series are both running hot when NFL Week 1 rolls around following the Labor Day Weekend annually. Kicking off two weeks prior to the pro action, veteran online bookmakers offer a boatload of LIVE betting options on future NFL stars from NCAA US College Football ranks..

Once the back half of October hits – National Hockey League and National Basketball Association action begins and betting boards are basically packed to max capacity. Ranking high on our list of best sports wagering tips – placing bets at Canada Sports Betting top rated online sportsbooks is winning proposition. That is especially true when one considers the weak and limited options offered by government controlled Canadian Lottery shops. Offering a smattering of matches daily, gas station sports wagering kiosks simply can’t compete with these respected online bookmakers.

 

 

 

 

 

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