How To Understand Expert Picks For The NBA?
This online sports betting guide for NBA expert picks includes a breakdown of all the most popular basketball bets, along with a peek into how experts approach their selections.
Popular NBA Betting Types
NBA Moneyline Betting
Also known as a straight up wager, NBA moneyline bets focus on predicting the team that will win an individual game.
The term moneyline also refers to the American style of presenting odds. A +150 moneyline pays $150 for a $100 bet, while a -150 moneyline requires a $150 bet to win $100.
Betting Against the Spread
Placing a wager against the spread (ATS) requires you to predict the winning margin of the game instead of simply choosing the straight up winner.
When betting on favorites, selecting the spread over the moneyline improves the payout.
If the spread for a match between the Toronto Raptors and Boston Celtics favors the Celtics by 5.5 points, Boston needs to win by six points or more to beat the spread. If Toronto loses by five points or less, they’ll win the ATS bet instead.
When betting on favorites, selecting the spread over the moneyline improves the payout. Using the previous example, betting on the Celtics 5.5 point spread would pay out at around -110, while a straight up moneyline win over the Raptors might pay off at -250.
NBA Totals – Over/Under Bets
Betting on the total number of points scored by both teams is another popular type of sports betting. If a sportsbook lists the over/under for the Celtics versus the Raptors at 201.5 points, the ‘under’ wins if both teams score 201 points or less. The ‘over’ wins if Boston and Toronto score 202 points or more.
NBA Prop Bets And Alternative Lines
What’s A Prop Bet?
Proposition bets, sometimes called side bets, include a wide variety of betting types, often focusing on a specific aspect of an NBA game. Player props deal with individual stats, such as betting on how many points a player scores, or whether he notches a triple-double. Team props may involve picking the club which will win the second quarter, or predicting the team which finishes the game with the most fouls.
Sometimes, special events lead to a wide variety of prop bets, some of which have nothing to do with the game. For example, one of the prop bets for the NBA All-Star game might focus on the shoe color worn by the artist performing in the half-time show.
What Is Line In Sports Betting?
The line consists of the odds given for popular betting types for an NBA match – or another type of sporting event – usually including the moneyline, spread and over/under.
Alternative Betting Lines Explained
Sportsbooks often provide a series of alternative lines based on the original line for the match. An alternative line might include a point spread of 6.5 for the Celtics-Raptors matchup, instead of the original 5.5 spread.
Adding an extra point increases the risk of betting against the spread. As such, instead of a -110 payout, the alternative spread of 6.5 would feature a +110 payout, compensating you for taking on additional risk.
Alternate lines go both ways, which means you can choose to bet on a line of 4.5, reducing the risk for betting on the Celtics spread. Of course, the payout will be reduced along with the risk
NBA Betting Futures
Betting on basketball futures revolves around predicting long-term outcomes. Odds for this type of betting tend to change throughout the season, responding to injuries, streaks and the amount of money wagered on a specific team or outcome.
NBA Championship Futures
Some of the biggest sports betting wins result from wagering on who will win a championship at the end of the season. Underdogs like the 2011 Mavericks, 2004 Pistons and 2016 Cavaliers featured odds which multiplied your initial bet, turning a hundred dollar wager into a four or five digit payout.
NBA Conference Champions
Wagering on the teams who will make the NBA finals is another popular type of NBA futures bet. Choose the eastern conference and/or the western conference champs to win this wager.
NBA Player Predictions
Individual player futures often consist of predicting who will win awards, scoring titles and other major stat categories. The NBA MVP, rookie of the year and NBA Finals MVP tend to be the most popular awards to bet on, while points, assists and rebound leaders also receive plenty of wagering action.
How Do NBA Experts Make Their Picks?
- Analyzing Stats
The NBA and other websites provide an incredible volume of stats throughout the season, along with detailed historical results. Some numbers are more useful than others, such as net ratings.
- Streaks And Trends
Experts pay attention to winning streaks and slumps, along with trends which have affected outcomes in the past. If a team tends to play poorly in back-to-back games over the past couple of seasons, there’s a good chance that a rested opponent will perform better than normal.
- Staying Disciplined
Instead of splashing random amounts of money on basketball games, experts often set aside a specific amount for their bankroll and bet incrementally throughout the season.
- Maximizing Value
Roughly speaking, maximizing value involves winning as much as possible for each bet. If you’re wagering $100 and winning $10 for your trouble, you’re risking a lot for little in return. Experts look for NBA lines which pay well without presenting too much risk.