How To Understand Expert Picks For The NBA?

This online sports betting guide for NBA expert picks includes a breakdown of all the most popular basketball bets, along with a peek into how experts approach their selections.

Popular NBA Betting Types

NBA Moneyline Betting

Also known as a straight up wager, NBA moneyline bets focus on predicting the team that will win an individual game.

The term moneyline also refers to the American style of presenting odds. A +150 moneyline pays $150 for a $100 bet, while a -150 moneyline requires a $150 bet to win $100.

Betting Against the Spread

Placing a wager against the spread (ATS) requires you to predict the winning margin of the game instead of simply choosing the straight up winner.

When betting on favorites, selecting the spread over the moneyline improves the payout.

If the spread for a match between the Toronto Raptors and Boston Celtics favors the Celtics by 5.5 points, Boston needs to win by six points or more to beat the spread. If Toronto loses by five points or less, they’ll win the ATS bet instead.

When betting on favorites, selecting the spread over the moneyline improves the payout. Using the previous example, betting on the Celtics 5.5 point spread would pay out at around -110, while a  straight up moneyline win over the Raptors might pay off at -250. 

NBA Totals – Over/Under Bets

Betting on the total number of points scored by both teams is another popular type of sports betting. If a sportsbook lists the over/under for the Celtics versus the Raptors at 201.5 points, the ‘under’ wins if both teams score 201 points or less. The ‘over’ wins if Boston and Toronto score 202 points or more.

Joel Embiid - NBA Basketball

NBA Prop Bets And Alternative Lines

What’s A Prop Bet?

Proposition bets, sometimes called side bets, include a wide variety of betting types, often focusing on a specific aspect of an NBA game. Player props deal with individual stats, such as betting on how many points a player scores, or whether he notches a triple-double. Team props may involve picking the club which will win the second quarter, or predicting the team which finishes the game with the most fouls.

Sometimes, special events lead to a wide variety of prop bets, some of which have nothing to do with the game. For example, one of the prop bets for the NBA All-Star game might focus on the shoe color worn by the artist performing in the half-time show.

What Is Line In Sports Betting?

The line consists of the odds given for popular betting types for an NBA match – or another type of sporting event – usually including the moneyline, spread and over/under.

Alternative Betting Lines Explained

Sportsbooks often provide a series of alternative lines based on the original line for the match. An alternative line might include a point spread of 6.5 for the Celtics-Raptors matchup, instead of the original 5.5 spread. 

Adding an extra point increases the risk of betting against the spread. As such, instead of a -110 payout, the alternative spread of 6.5 would feature a +110 payout, compensating you for taking on additional risk.

Alternate lines go both ways, which means you can choose to bet on a line of 4.5, reducing the risk for betting on the Celtics spread. Of course, the payout will be reduced along with the risk

James Harden - Houston Rockets

NBA Betting Futures

Betting on basketball futures revolves around predicting long-term outcomes. Odds for this type of betting tend to change throughout the season, responding to injuries, streaks and the amount of money wagered on a specific team or outcome.

NBA Championship Futures

Some of the biggest sports betting wins result from wagering on who will win a championship at the end of the season. Underdogs like the 2011 Mavericks, 2004 Pistons and 2016 Cavaliers featured odds which multiplied your initial bet, turning a hundred dollar wager into a four or five digit payout.

NBA Conference Champions

Wagering on the teams who will make the NBA finals is another popular type of NBA futures bet. Choose the eastern conference and/or the western conference champs to win this wager.

NBA Player Predictions

Individual player futures often consist of predicting who will win awards, scoring titles and other major stat categories. The NBA MVP, rookie of the year and NBA Finals MVP tend to be the most popular awards to bet on, while points, assists and rebound leaders also receive plenty of wagering action.

How Do NBA Experts Make Their Picks?

  • Analyzing Stats

The NBA and other websites provide an incredible volume of stats throughout the season, along with detailed historical results. Some numbers are more useful than others, such as net ratings.

  • Streaks And Trends

Experts pay attention to winning streaks and slumps, along with trends which have affected outcomes in the past. If a team tends to play poorly in back-to-back games over the past couple of seasons, there’s a good chance that a rested opponent will perform better than normal.

  • Staying Disciplined

Instead of splashing random amounts of money on basketball games, experts often set aside a specific amount for their bankroll and bet incrementally throughout the season.

  • Maximizing Value

Roughly speaking, maximizing value involves winning as much as possible for each bet. If you’re wagering $100 and winning $10 for your trouble, you’re risking a lot for little in return. Experts look for NBA lines which pay well without presenting too much risk.

 

12/12/2018 10:30 PM
Basketball
NBA
Warriors -5.5
Based on Odds50%
Based on History50%

  • Raptors are 7-0 ats in their last 7 games on 0 days rest
  • Warriors are 1-5 ats in their last 6 home games
  • 07/12/2018 07:30 PM
    Basketball
    NBA
    Toronto Raptors to Win
    Based on Odds100%
    Based on History80.77%

  • Raptors 10-2 on the road this season, best road record in NBA
  • Raptors 18-4 SU as favourites this season
  • Raptors 12-13-1 ATS this season
  • Raptors 4-1 against Atlantic Division this season
  • Raptors 6-6 O/U on the road this season
  • Brooklyn 3-10 SU at home this season
  • Brooklyn 5-17 SU as underdogs this season
  • Brooklyn 11-15 ATS this season
  • Brooklyn 13-13 O/U this season
  • Brooklyn 2-2 against Atlantic Division this season
  • 05/12/2018 07:00 PM
    Basketball
    NBA
    Golden State Warriors -4.5
    Based on Odds-
    Based on History-

  • Warriors are 6-4 ATS in their last ten games
  • Warriors are 3-2 in their last five road games
  • Warriors are 6-2 in their last eight games as a favourite
  • Warriors are are 3-2 ATS in their last five road games
  • Cavaliers are 5-5 ATS in their last ten games
  • Cavaliers are 3-1 in their last four home games
  • Cavaliers are 1-4 in their last four games as an underdog
  • Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games
  • 29/11/2018 08:00 PM
    Basketball
    NBA
    Toronto Raptors -9
    Based on Odds55.6%
    Based on History51.3%

  • Warriors are 3-2 S/U in their last five games
  • Warriors are 2-7 ATS on the road this season
  • Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five games
  • The team totals went OVER in three of the Warriors' last five games
  • Raptors are 5-0 S/U in their last five games
  • Raptors are 5-6 ATS at home this season
  • Raptors were 3-2 ATS in their last five games
  • The team totals went OVER in four of the Raptors' last five games
  • 16/11/2018 07:00 PM
    Basketball
    NBA
    Boston Celtics to Win
    Based on Odds40%
    Based on History51.6%

  • 5-1 on the road this season
  • 9-2 S/U as the favourite this season
  • 7-6-1 ATS this season
  • 10/4 Over/Under this season
  • Point differential of +8.00
  • 3-1 at home this season
  • 7-2 as the favourite
  • 0-4 as the underdog
  • 6-7 O/U this season
  • +1.72 point differential
  • 12/11/2018 07:30 PM
    Basketball
    NBA
    Toronto Raptors to Win
    Based on Odds80%
    Based on History78.02%

  • Pelicans 1-6 as underdogs this season
  • Pelicans lost last five on the road (three by 10 or more points)
  • Pelicans 6-3 when Anthony Davis plays (0-3 when he does not)
  • Pelicans won previous two games, after losing six straight
  • Raptors 7-0 at home
  • Toronto 7-5-1 ATS this season
  • Toronto undefeated with Kawli Leonard in the lineup
  • Toronto +13.43 point differential at home
  • 10/11/2018 03:00 PM
    Basketball
    NBA
    Toronto Raptors -11.5
    Based on Odds60%
    Based on History51.5%

  • Knicks are 2-3 S/U in their last five games
  • Knicks are 2-4 ATS on the road this season
  • Knicks are 2-2-1 ATS in their last five games
  • The team totals went OVER in 3 of the Knicks' last 5 games
  • Raptors are 5-0 S/U in their last five games
  • Raptors are 6-5-1 ATS at home this season
  • Raptors were 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games
  • The team totals went UNDER in 3 of the Raptors' last 5 games
  • 07/11/2018 10:00 PM
    Basketball
    NBA
    Kings +8.5
    Based on Odds60%
    Based on History50%

  • The Raptors are 8-3 ATS so far this season
  • The Over is 8-3 in Toronto games
  • The Raptors are scoring 117.4 points per game
  • The Kings are 7-3 ATS so far this season
  • The Over is 7-3 in Sacramento games
  • The Kings are allowing 119.3 points per game
  • 22/10/2018 07:30 PM
    Basketball
    NBA
    Raptors
    Based on Odds80%
    Based on History82.6%

  • Hornets are 42-35 all-time against the Raptors
  • Hornets have won all 4 OT games against Raptors
  • Hornets went 4-1 in the NBA preseason
  • Hornets were 15-26 on the road in 2017/18
  • Raptors are 8-2 vs Hornets since 2016
  • Raptors ave. 117.4 points vs Hornets in last 5.
  • Raptors went 4-1 in the NBA preseason.
  • Raptors were 34-7 at home in 2017/18
  • 03/06/2018 08:00 PM
    Basketball
    NBA
    Golden State Covers -11.0 Spread For Game 2
    Based on Odds-
    Based on History-

  • Cavaliers are 6-4 ATS in their last ten games
  • Cavaliers are 3-6-1 in their last ten games versus Warriors
  • Cavaliers are 2-3 in their last five road games
  • Cavs average 42.3% field goal pct in their last ten games vs GSW
  • Totals have gone UNDER in four of the Cavs last five road games
  • Warriors are 5-5 ATS in their last ten games
  • Warriors are 6-2 in their last nine games as a favourite
  • Warriors are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games versus Cavaliers
  • Warriors average 112.8 points in their last ten games vs Cavs
  • Totals have gone UNDER in four of the last five Warriors home games