How To Understand The Expert Picks For The MLB?

Betting on Major League Baseball may seem complex, but baseball fans have access to nearly all the stats that experienced handicappers use to study the sport. Understanding MLB picks and parleys made by experts on sports betting sites requires knowledge of baseball betting types, along with easily accessible stats for every player and team in the Big Show. This guide reveals important stats, betting types and perspectives applied by successful baseball bettors.

How Do Experts Predict MLB Picks?

Statistical Analysis

Major League Baseball features a 162-game season, which creates an immense volume of information for every aspect of the sport. As such, baseball produces the deepest pool of stats for betting experts and beginners to analyze.

Starting pitching tends to be the most important aspect of predicting baseball outcomes, including single games and World Series winners. Hitting, fielding and the quality of a bullpen also factor into expert predictions, supporting or reducing the effectiveness of starters.

Head-to-Head Stats

Some teams tend to match up well against other franchises, especially when two clubs play in the same division. As a result, a team which looks better on paper might underperform against a club with lesser talent.

Head-to-head stats focusing on pitchers versus batters can reveal a lineup which doesn’t produce well against left-handed pitchers, or an unusually low batting average against a specific starting pitcher. Experts study head-to-head stats before making MLB picks.

Baseball Betting Trends

Trends always emerge during the regular season, including short-term and long-term tendencies. Most teams win between 40-60% of their games, increasing the significance of long winning streaks and losing streaks – both of which can be leveraged into profit.

A large volume of stats also reveals baseball betting trends which create profit over the long term. Some experts look for underdogs playing against teams in their own division because underdogs tend to perform well against divisional rivals. Clubs tend to play well during their first game home after a long road trip – another trend which can pay in the long term.

Maximizing Value

Maximizing value refers to getting the most bang for your betting buck. Wagering on favorites all the time may appear safe, but learning how to pick underdog winners will improve profit in the long run.

Marcus Stroman - Major League Baseball

MLB Basic Betting Types

Most sportsbooks list a large variety of baseball bets for every Major League Baseball game. Experts tend to focus their predictions on popular betting types, including moneylines, over/unders and run lines. Those new to baseball betting should learn the ins-and-outs of basic MLB bets.

Baseball Moneylines

Moneylines are the most popular type of bet in baseball. Simply predict the team that will win straight up, regardless of runs scored or innings played. 

MLB Run Lines

Similar to betting on pucklines in the NHL, or spreads in the NFL and NBA, the run line focuses on predicting whether the favorite will win the game by two runs or more. Underdogs win the run line when the lose by one run or win straight up. The spread for run lines are fixed at 1.5 runs

Over/Under (Totals)

Over/unders for the MLB work the same as other major sports leagues. Predict whether both teams will score more or less than the total offered by the sportsbook. For a total of 7.0 runs, both teams need to score 8 runs or more for over to win. The under wins if both teams score 6 runs or less. If the teams score exactly 7 runs, the result is a push, refunding the bet.

MLB Props

Proposition bets, usually referred to as prop bets, revolve around predicting specific events during an individual game. Examples include betting on a player hitting a home run, whether a run will be scored in the first inning, or the need for extra innings to settle the outcome.

Individual Series Betting

MLB teams typically play three or four game series against each other, giving baseball bettors the option of wagering on the team which will earn the most wins in a single head-to-head series during the regular season. When the MLB playoffs roll around, you’ll have the option of betting on five and seven game series.

MLB Futures Betting

All sports betting predicts outcomes which have yet to occur. MLB futures betting refers to wagers made on events and outcomes that will happen in the distant future, often involving the entire season.

World Series Outrights

Select the team which will win the World Series to win this type of futures bet. 

American League And National League Champions

Pick the teams that will win the pennant for the National League or the American League. The AL and NL champions meet in the World Series.

Win Totals


Bet on the number of wins a team accumulates during the regular season to win this wager. This type of futures bet is offered as an over/under, so you’ll choose whether the win total will be over or under a set number.

Advanced Baseball Betting Stats


The number of walks and hits combined per inning pitched gives you an idea of the number of baserunners a pitcher allows, a strong indication of his effectiveness.


Earned run average calculates the number of earned runs allowed per nine innings pitched. This doesn’t include runs scored because of fielding errors.


The average number of strikeouts per nine innings pitched. More strikeouts usually translates to fewer runs allowed.

Run Support Average

Some pitchers have the good fortune of receiving a lot of support from their offense, while other pitchers have the misfortune of a weak offense. Run support average tends to change from season to season.

Team OBP

On base percentage reveals how often a team reaches base, which increases the likelihood of scoring runs.

Team Versus Lefthanded Or Righthanded Pitching

Comparing a team’s batting performance against lefthanded and righthanded pitching may reveal a lineup which doesn’t hit well against either type of thrower.

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