Toronto Maple Leafs @ Tampa Bay Lightning Odds

Toronto Maple Leafs
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
Toronto Maple Leafs
Tampa Bay Lightning
28WON
28WON
LAST 10 GAMES RECORDS
Toronto Maple LeafsLWLWLWLLWL
Tampa Bay LightningLLLLWWLWLW
4 wins / 0 draws / 6 defeats
  • Toronto Maple Leafs @ Boston Bruins1-5
  • Toronto Maple Leafs @ Boston Bruins2-1
  • Boston Bruins @ Toronto Maple Leafs6-4
  • Boston Bruins @ Toronto Maple Leafs2-3
  • Toronto Maple Leafs @ Boston Bruins1-4
  • Toronto Maple Leafs @ Boston Bruins4-1
  • Tampa Bay Lightning @ Toronto Maple Leafs3-1
  • Carolina Hurricanes @ Toronto Maple Leafs4-1
  • Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders2-1
  • Toronto Maple Leafs @ Ottawa Senators2-4
4 wins / 0 draws / 6 defeats
  • Tampa Bay Lightning @ Columbus Blue Jackets3-7
  • Tampa Bay Lightning @ Columbus Blue Jackets1-3
  • Columbus Blue Jackets @ Tampa Bay Lightning5-1
  • Columbus Blue Jackets @ Tampa Bay Lightning4-3
  • Tampa Bay Lightning @ Boston Bruins6-3
  • Tampa Bay Lightning @ Toronto Maple Leafs3-1
  • Tampa Bay Lightning @ Montreal Canadiens2-4
  • Tampa Bay Lightning @ Ottawa Senators5-2
  • Washington Capitals @ Tampa Bay Lightning6-3
  • Boston Bruins @ Tampa Bay Lightning4-5

Maple Leafs @ Lightning Game Preview

Toronto Maple Leafs

All is well in Leafs Nation as super sophomore Auston Matthews has returned from injury while the drama with William Nylander has been resolved. Since Matthews returned, the Buds are 4-2 and scoring 4.17 goals per game. They are also giving up 3.83 goals a game in this span, but with their offence back to full strength, Toronto is trending. 

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning aren't impressed with Toronto's offence. Tampa Bay leads the league in goal-scoring by a wide margin (they are 15 goals ahead of second-placed Toronto) and are averaging 5.14 goals per game in the same time frame Matthews returned. The Bolts are already in Stanley Cup form and are a team on a higher tier than everyone.

Game Snippet

This is a high-scoring game waiting to happen. Both teams have solid netminders and are in the top-ten in keeping pucks away from their nets, but their defence will be undermined by their prolific goal-scoring. There are a total of nine players on pace to score 25 or more goals and 11 who are scoring a point-per-game. Buckle up for a heavyweight clash of Eastern powers!

Maple Leafs @ Lightning Betting Tips

  • 1

    Leafs are 2-3 S/U against the Lightning in their last five games in Tampa Bay

  • 2

    Lightning are 4-1 S/U against the Leafs in their last five games

  • 3

    The total has gone under in 3 of the last 5 games when the Leafs play in Tampa Bay

Maple Leafs & Lightning Game Prediction

Moneyline Prediction

The Lightning have the NHL's best home record (14-4) and are 6-1 in their last seven games. But the Leafs are also the league's best road team (12-4) and are 3-1 in the month of December. Toronto is scoring 4.06 goals per game on the road with a sizzling 27.27 power play per cent. 

Toronto will have to find a way to win in Tampa, however. They have only won two of their last five games at the Amalie Arena although one of them was a 5-0 shellacking in March of 2017. Statistically, the team that has outshot the opponent has only won two of five times and Toronto is outshooting Tampa 150-127 in this stretch.

The biggest discrepancy is in power play. The Leafs have scored 5 goals on 22 attempts (22.72%) while the Lightning have doughnuts in 18 tries (0%). Toronto has scored a power play goal in their last four games in Tampa and have split those games 2-2.

The key in this game will be Toronto beating Tampa at 5-on-5 play. Toronto has is eighth in 5-on-5 goals surrendered (56) while Tampa is only 21st (64). The Leafs can capitalize on the power play, but to get a neck up against Tampa they will have to score more at even strength.

At these odds, bank on Toronto to get enough to edge the Lightning. 

Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs (+125)

Over/Under Prediction

Both teams have combined to score seven goals in each of their last three games, two of them being in Tampa. Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy only averaged a .911 save percentage against Toronto in 2017-18, but only surrendered 2.11 goals against. Frederik Andersen of Toronto allowed 3.00 GAA on a similar .912 save per cent.

Neither goalie is particularly hot against each other. It's up to the teams to capitalize on their scoring chances. With both teams on fire and hitting their stride offensively, this game will be a high-scoring affair and at least six goals total will get scored.

Pick: Over +5.5 (-110)