New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Can the Pats cover a two touchdown spread on the road?

For online sports bettors to try to determine if there is any value on a -13.5 favorite on the road on Monday Night Football, lets take a few things into consideration.

First, the Patriots have averaged 39.25 points over their past 4 games including putting up 38 points in Chicago last Sunday against what is thought to be one of the best defenses in the NFL. In all of those 4 games, the Patriots had a 14 point lead at some point and in 2 of those games won by a margin of 14 or more which is crucial when thinking about this game.

If the Pats can consistently jump out to 14+ points leads on their opponents then we can try to handicap this game by asking the following question; will the Bills be able to come back and cover, the way the Kansas City Chiefs, for example, did to the Patriots a few weeks ago?


According to Football Outsiders, through the first 7 weeks of the 2018 NFL regular season, the Buffalo Bills by efficiency have the worst offense measured, EVER in the history of the DVOA metric (defense adjusted value over average).

And the most glaring evidence of this is that the Bills have only scored 31 points combined in their last 4 games, and have had to use 3 different quarterbacks during this horrendous stretch.

So this Monday Night they will be asked to keep pace with one of the league's best offenses with either Nathan Peterman or Derek Anderson at QB. We all know that there is no such thing as easy money but I just don't see the world where the Patriots score 30+ points and the Bills somehow keep putting up points to keep the spread within reach.

PICK: Patriots -13.5 (-103) on PINNACLE

The First Half line may have some value.

  • 1

    Patriots have outscored their opponents 93-29 in the first half the last 4 weeks

  • 2

    The Bills have been outscored 56-6 in the first halves of their last 4 games

Big Names to monitor

If you needed any more reason to not like the Buffalo Bills this week, RB Shady McCoy looks like he will be OUT for this contest.

Also you may want to keep track of Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski who sat out the last game against the Bears. His absence didn't stop Tom Brady and company from putting up 38 points but you'll always feel better about your bet if #87 is in the lineup.

You can follow me on twitter @zahir_gilani