Thu 06/10/2016 - 17:47 EDT

Soccer Gambling Strategies: Capitalizing On The Big Favorites

Soccer Gambling Strategies: Capitalizing On The Big Favorites
There's a good reason why Bayern Munich, Barcelona and the Real Madrid's of the world are heavy favorites in the majority of there games; because the win quite often and quite convincingly. But do we need to lay these crazy odds to capitalize?

Coming off a weekend where Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Barcelona all failed to win as heavy favorites, writing this piece is somewhat ironic. But there are several ways to utilize these powerhouses over the course of the season to help add units to your bankroll, and improve your win outcomes. Let’s examine a few.

Using The Big Dogs To Kill Your Juice

Juice is how the sports books make the majority of their earnings. It’s added fee, usually 10 cents on your dollar (Dime Lines), just to place an otherwise even money bet. However, by parlaying certain bets with the Big Dogs, and assuming the risk of a huge upset, you can save the cost of this added fee. Lets look at a quick example:

Barcelona’s first game back from the International break is at home to Deportivo la Coruna. Assuming nothing catastrophic occurs, Barca should win comfotably as the books have indicated that by making them -1000 or 10/1 favorites.

LaLiga
LaLiga
Matchday 8
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Away Score Home Money Line
Friday 14 October
FT Espanyol 0 - 0 Las Palmas +350 +105 Odds
Saturday 15 October
FT Sevilla 3 - 2 Leganes +120 +250 Odds
FT Deportivo La Coruña 0 - 4 Barcelona +2500 -1000 Odds
FT Granada 1 - 7 Atletico Madrid +2200 -833 Odds
FT Real Madrid 6 - 1 Betis -303 +900 Odds
Sunday 16 October
FT Malaga 1 - 1 Alaves +188 +180 Odds
FT Real Sociedad 2 - 3 Athletic Bilbao +350 -120 Odds
FT Valencia 2 - 1 Gijon +120 +250 Odds
FT Celta Vigo 0 - 5 Villarreal +300 +105 Odds
Monday 17 October
FT Osasuna 3 - 2 Eibar +475 -182 Odds

But suppose you’ve handicapped another game such as Bournemouth vs Hull and love Bournemouth to win at home laying 5/4 or -125. Instead of paying the 25 cents of juice, parlaying them with a 10/1 favorite will bring your bet down to Even Money. 

Here a few more combinations that will get you to Even Money or +100

  • A 5/1 favorite parlayed with a 3/2 favorite (-500 + -150)
  • A 6/1 favorite parlayed with a 7/5 favorite (-600 + -140)
  • Two 5/2 favorites (-250 + -250)

-BETTING 1st Halves-

Using Barcelona’s upcoming match with Deportivo let’s look at the 1st half line on BET 365:

Barcelona vs Deportivo 1H on BET 365

You can wager Barcelona to be leading at half at 5/2 or -250 instead of laying 10/1 for the full game. Furthermore, as most sites will allow you to parlay a 1st half line, achieving even money and higher payouts is well within reach.

So crack those books and find out which teams are winning after 45 minutes more often than not.

Also if the Halftime line is the same as the Double Result (HT/FT) DO NOT BET THE DOUBLE RESULT. BET THE HALFTIME LINE INSTEAD. Why pay the same price for a bet that can win after 45 minutes as for a bet that requires a 45 minute and 90 minute result?

-Fading Heavy Favorites-

Betting against the superpowers of the world is an inexact science but when it works, it feels Great. In my last column I successfully picked Tottenham to beat Manchester City at White Hart Lane last Sunday, netting over 2 Units in profit.

English League Cup » Efl Cup
Tuesday 25 October
Tottenham
Liverpool

Tottenham @ Liverpool

  Money Line  

Now that’s not as huge an upset as we will see this season. There will be an underdog at +1500 that wins at some point before the domestic season ends; it’s inevitable. But if we pay attention, we can spot certain indicators that can hint at these large upsets and become what’s known in the gambling world as Sharps.

I decided that Tottenham was the play based on several factors. In the small picture Man City was playing their 4th straight away game against an in form, and fairly fresh opponent. Also the style of play that Man City just struggled against in their past few games was the style of that they were going to face once again, and from a superior opponent. In the big picture, Pep Guardiola and Man City as independent entities are both more likely to lose away from home historically.

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competitions Away Score Home Money Line
July 2016 (3)
Thu 28 MD3 Manchester City 1 - 1 Dortmund +350 -137 Odds
August 2016 (6)
Tue 16 QLF Final L1 Manchester City 5 - 0 Steaua Bucuresti -175 +600 Odds
Wed 24 QLF Final L2 Steaua Bucuresti 0 - 1 Manchester City * +2000 -556 Odds
September 2016 (6)
Wed 14 MD1 Monchengladbach 0 - 4 Manchester City +750 -250 Odds
Wed 28 MD2 Manchester City 3 - 3 Celtic -303 +900 Odds
October 2016 (6)
Wed 19 MD3 Manchester City 0 - 4 Barcelona +500 -175 Odds
November 2016 (5)
Tue 1 MD4 Barcelona 15:45 Manchester City +135 +220 Odds
Wed 23 MD5 Manchester City 14:45 Monchengladbach -250 +650 Odds
December 2016 (7)
Tue 6 MD6 Celtic 14:45 Manchester City
July 2016 (3)
Wed 20 Manchester City 0 - 1 Bayern Munich +350 -125 Odds
August 2016 (6)
Sun 7 Manchester City 2 - 3 Arsenal +125 +220 Odds
Sat 13 MD1 Sunderland 1 - 2 Manchester City +1400 -400 Odds
Sat 20 MD2 Manchester City 4 - 1 Stoke -167 +550 Odds
Sun 28 MD3 West Ham 1 - 3 Manchester City +1000 -345 Odds
September 2016 (6)
Sat 10 MD4 Manchester City 2 - 1 Man Utd +250 +150 Odds
Sat 17 MD5 Bournemouth 0 - 4 Manchester City +1200 -400 Odds
Sat 24 MD6 Manchester City 3 - 1 Swansea -278 +850 Odds
October 2016 (6)
Sun 2 MD7 Manchester City 0 - 2 Tottenham +145 +200 Odds
Sat 15 MD8 Everton 1 - 1 Manchester City +600 -189 Odds
Sun 23 MD9 Southampton 1 - 1 Manchester City +700 -200 Odds
Sat 29 MD10 Manchester City 10:00 West Bromwich -227 +700 Odds
November 2016 (5)
Sat 5 MD11 Middlesbrough 11:00 Manchester City +1100 -400 Odds
Sat 19 MD12 Manchester City 10:00 Crystal Palace
Sat 26 MD13 Manchester City 07:30 Burnley
December 2016 (7)
Sat 3 MD14 Chelsea 07:30 Manchester City
Sat 10 MD15 Manchester City 12:30 Leicester
Wed 14 MD16 Watford 15:00 Manchester City
Sun 18 MD17 Arsenal 11:00 Manchester City
Mon 26 MD18 Manchester City 12:15 Hull
Sat 31 MD19 Manchester City 12:30 Liverpool
January 2017 (3)
Mon 2 MD20 Burnley 10:00 Manchester City
Sun 15 MD21 Manchester City 08:30 Everton
Sat 21 MD22 Tottenham 12:30 Manchester City
February 2017 (4)
Wed 1 MD23 Manchester City 14:45 West Ham
Sat 4 MD24 Swansea 10:00 Manchester City
Sat 11 MD25 Manchester City 10:00 Bournemouth
Sat 25 MD26 Man Utd 10:00 Manchester City
March 2017 (3)
Sat 4 MD27 Manchester City 10:00 Sunderland
Sat 11 MD28 Stoke 10:00 Manchester City
Sat 18 MD29 Liverpool 11:00 Manchester City
April 2017 (6)
Sat 1 MD30 Manchester City 10:00 Arsenal
Wed 5 MD31 Manchester City 14:45 Chelsea
Sat 8 MD32 Hull 10:00 Manchester City
Sat 15 MD33 Manchester City 10:00 Southampton
Sat 22 MD34 West Bromwich 10:00 Manchester City
Sat 29 MD35 Manchester City 10:00 Middlesbrough
May 2017 (3)
Sat 6 MD36 Crystal Palace 10:00 Manchester City
Sat 13 MD37 Leicester 10:00 Manchester City
Sun 21 MD38 Manchester City 10:00 Watford
September 2016 (6)
Wed 21 Manchester City 2 - 1 Swansea -200 +600 Odds
October 2016 (6)
Wed 26 Manchester City 15:00 Man Utd +190 +162 Odds

Last season, Barcelona looked like they would run the table again and win La Liga and the Champions League in consecutive seasons. No one could stop them but themselves, and that’s precisely what happened. Messi, Suarez and Neymar played every minute of every game for both club and country, flying back and forth between Spain and South America for nearly 18 months, and then it happened: They ran out of gas.

Coming off an International break they lost the El Classico at home, and were also knocked out of Europe over 2 legs by Atletico Madrid. Combine that with 2 more losses to Real Sociedad and Valencia, and the mighty Barcelona only won 1 game out of 6 between March 20-April 17, 2016. If you were on top of this, you were a handicapping god.

Real Madrid are not on their best form currently. They have drawn their past 4 games. If you had been on top of this, you could have purchased a yacht by now. I successfully picked them to draw 1 of those games, but in the others they killed my parlays.

For all things soccer punter related, you can follow me @zahir_gilani

Category : Betting Picks

Tag : Barcelona , Bayern Munich , LaLiga , Manchester City , Premier League , real madrid , Soccer , Tottenham

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