Soccer Gambling Strategies: Capitalizing On The Big Favorites
Coming off a weekend where Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Barcelona all failed to win as heavy favorites, writing this piece is somewhat ironic. But there are several ways to utilize these powerhouses over the course of the season to help add units to your bankroll, and improve your win outcomes. Let’s examine a few.
Using The Big Dogs To Kill Your Juice
Juice is how the sports books make the majority of their earnings. It’s added fee, usually 10 cents on your dollar (Dime Lines), just to place an otherwise even money bet. However, by parlaying certain bets with the Big Dogs, and assuming the risk of a huge upset, you can save the cost of this added fee. Lets look at a quick example:
Barcelona’s first game back from the International break is at home to Deportivo la Coruna. Assuming nothing catastrophic occurs, Barca should win comfotably as the books have indicated that by making them -1000 or 10/1 favorites.
But suppose you’ve handicapped another game such as Bournemouth vs Hull and love Bournemouth to win at home laying 5/4 or -125. Instead of paying the 25 cents of juice, parlaying them with a 10/1 favorite will bring your bet down to Even Money.
Here a few more combinations that will get you to Even Money or +100
- A 5/1 favorite parlayed with a 3/2 favorite (-500 + -150)
- A 6/1 favorite parlayed with a 7/5 favorite (-600 + -140)
- Two 5/2 favorites (-250 + -250)
-BETTING 1st Halves-
Using Barcelona’s upcoming match with Deportivo let’s look at the 1st half line on BET 365:
You can wager Barcelona to be leading at half at 5/2 or -250 instead of laying 10/1 for the full game. Furthermore, as most sites will allow you to parlay a 1st half line, achieving even money and higher payouts is well within reach.
So crack those books and find out which teams are winning after 45 minutes more often than not.
Also if the Halftime line is the same as the Double Result (HT/FT) DO NOT BET THE DOUBLE RESULT. BET THE HALFTIME LINE INSTEAD. Why pay the same price for a bet that can win after 45 minutes as for a bet that requires a 45 minute and 90 minute result?
-Fading Heavy Favorites-
Betting against the superpowers of the world is an inexact science but when it works, it feels Great. In my last column I successfully picked Tottenham to beat Manchester City at White Hart Lane last Sunday, netting over 2 Units in profit.
Now that’s not as huge an upset as we will see this season. There will be an underdog at +1500 that wins at some point before the domestic season ends; it’s inevitable. But if we pay attention, we can spot certain indicators that can hint at these large upsets and become what’s known in the gambling world as Sharps.
I decided that Tottenham was the play based on several factors. In the small picture Man City was playing their 4th straight away game against an in form, and fairly fresh opponent. Also the style of play that Man City just struggled against in their past few games was the style of that they were going to face once again, and from a superior opponent. In the big picture, Pep Guardiola and Man City as independent entities are both more likely to lose away from home historically.
Last season, Barcelona looked like they would run the table again and win La Liga and the Champions League in consecutive seasons. No one could stop them but themselves, and that’s precisely what happened. Messi, Suarez and Neymar played every minute of every game for both club and country, flying back and forth between Spain and South America for nearly 18 months, and then it happened: They ran out of gas.
Coming off an International break they lost the El Classico at home, and were also knocked out of Europe over 2 legs by Atletico Madrid. Combine that with 2 more losses to Real Sociedad and Valencia, and the mighty Barcelona only won 1 game out of 6 between March 20-April 17, 2016. If you were on top of this, you were a handicapping god.
Real Madrid are not on their best form currently. They have drawn their past 4 games. If you had been on top of this, you could have purchased a yacht by now. I successfully picked them to draw 1 of those games, but in the others they killed my parlays.
For all things soccer punter related, you can follow me @zahir_gilani
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