Zahir |  Thu 06/10/2016 - 17:47 EDT

Soccer Gambling Strategies: Capitalizing On The Big Favorites

Soccer Gambling Strategies: Capitalizing On The Big Favorites
There's a good reason why Bayern Munich, Barcelona and the Real Madrid's of the world are heavy favorites in the majority of there games; because the win quite often and quite convincingly. But do we need to lay these crazy odds to capitalize?

Coming off a weekend where Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Barcelona all failed to win as heavy favorites, writing this piece is somewhat ironic. But there are several ways to utilize these powerhouses over the course of the season to help add units to your bankroll, and improve your win outcomes. Let’s examine a few.

Using The Big Dogs To Kill Your Juice

Juice is how the sports books make the majority of their earnings. It’s added fee, usually 10 cents on your dollar (Dime Lines), just to place an otherwise even money bet. However, by parlaying certain bets with the Big Dogs, and assuming the risk of a huge upset, you can save the cost of this added fee. Lets look at a quick example:

Barcelona’s first game back from the International break is at home to Deportivo la Coruna. Assuming nothing catastrophic occurs, Barca should win comfotably as the books have indicated that by making them -1000 or 10/1 favorites.

LaLiga
LaLiga
Matchday 8
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Away Score Home Money Line
Sunday 15 October
Valencia 14:00 Betis
Real Sociedad 14:00 Alaves
Levante 14:00 Espanyol
Real Madrid 14:00 Getafe
Deportivo La Coruña 14:00 Eibar
Villarreal 14:00 Girona
Celta Vigo 14:00 Las Palmas
Barcelona 14:00 Atletico Madrid
Leganes 14:00 Malaga
Sevilla 14:00 Athletic Bilbao

But suppose you’ve handicapped another game such as Bournemouth vs Hull and love Bournemouth to win at home laying 5/4 or -125. Instead of paying the 25 cents of juice, parlaying them with a 10/1 favorite will bring your bet down to Even Money. 

Here a few more combinations that will get you to Even Money or +100

  • A 5/1 favorite parlayed with a 3/2 favorite (-500 + -150)
  • A 6/1 favorite parlayed with a 7/5 favorite (-600 + -140)
  • Two 5/2 favorites (-250 + -250)

-BETTING 1st Halves-

Using Barcelona’s upcoming match with Deportivo let’s look at the 1st half line on BET 365:

Barcelona vs Deportivo 1H on BET 365

You can wager Barcelona to be leading at half at 5/2 or -250 instead of laying 10/1 for the full game. Furthermore, as most sites will allow you to parlay a 1st half line, achieving even money and higher payouts is well within reach.

So crack those books and find out which teams are winning after 45 minutes more often than not.

Also if the Halftime line is the same as the Double Result (HT/FT) DO NOT BET THE DOUBLE RESULT. BET THE HALFTIME LINE INSTEAD. Why pay the same price for a bet that can win after 45 minutes as for a bet that requires a 45 minute and 90 minute result?

-Fading Heavy Favorites-

Betting against the superpowers of the world is an inexact science but when it works, it feels Great. In my last column I successfully picked Tottenham to beat Manchester City at White Hart Lane last Sunday, netting over 2 Units in profit.

English League Cup » Efl Cup
Tuesday 25 October
Tottenham
Liverpool

Tottenham @ Liverpool

  Money Line  

Now that’s not as huge an upset as we will see this season. There will be an underdog at +1500 that wins at some point before the domestic season ends; it’s inevitable. But if we pay attention, we can spot certain indicators that can hint at these large upsets and become what’s known in the gambling world as Sharps.

I decided that Tottenham was the play based on several factors. In the small picture Man City was playing their 4th straight away game against an in form, and fairly fresh opponent. Also the style of play that Man City just struggled against in their past few games was the style of that they were going to face once again, and from a superior opponent. In the big picture, Pep Guardiola and Man City as independent entities are both more likely to lose away from home historically.

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competitions Away Score Home Money Line
January 2017 (2)
Fri 6 Manchester City 5 - 0 West Ham -161 +500 Odds
Sat 28 FS R4 Manchester City 3 - 0 Crystal Palace -200 +650 Odds
February 2017 (1)
Sat 18 Manchester City 0 - 0 Huddersfield -345 +1200 Odds
March 2017 (2)
Wed 1 Huddersfield 1 - 5 Manchester City Odds
Sat 11 Manchester City 2 - 0 Middlesbrough -278 +900 Odds
April 2017 (1)
Sun 23 Manchester City 1 - 2 Arsenal -120 +320 Odds
July 2017 (3)
Thu 20 MD29 Manchester City 0 - 2 Man Utd +220 +130 Odds
Wed 26 MD30 Real Madrid 1 - 4 Manchester City +115 +225 Odds
Sat 29 MD30 Tottenham 0 - 3 Manchester City +220 +110 Odds
August 2017 (5)
Fri 4 Manchester City 3 - 0 West Ham -303 +750 Odds
Sat 12 MD1 Manchester City 2 - 0 Brighton -333 +1000 Odds
Tue 15 Manchester City 0 - 1 Girona -345 +829 Odds
Mon 21 MD2 Everton 1 - 1 Manchester City +1000 -303 Odds
Sat 26 MD3 Manchester City 2 - 1 Bournemouth -400 +1100 Odds
September 2017 (7)
Sat 9 MD4 Liverpool 07:30 Manchester City +320 -120 Odds
Wed 13 MD1 Manchester City 14:45 Feyenoord -200 +650 Odds
Sat 16 MD5 Manchester City 10:00 Watford -250 +750 Odds
Tue 19 Manchester City 14:45 West Bromwich -227 +400 Odds
Sat 23 MD6 Crystal Palace 10:00 Manchester City +1600 -500 Odds
Tue 26 MD2 Shakhtar Donetsk 14:45 Manchester City
Sat 30 MD7 Manchester City 12:30 Chelsea
October 2017 (4)
Sat 14 MD8 Stoke 10:00 Manchester City
Tue 17 MD3 Napoli 14:45 Manchester City
Sat 21 MD9 Burnley 10:00 Manchester City
Sat 28 MD10 Manchester City 10:00 West Bromwich
November 2017 (6)
Wed 1 MD4 Manchester City 15:45 Napoli
Sun 5 MD11 Arsenal 09:15 Manchester City
Sat 18 MD12 Manchester City 10:00 Leicester
Tue 21 MD5 Feyenoord 14:45 Manchester City
Sun 26 MD13 Manchester City 11:00 Huddersfield
Wed 29 MD14 Southampton 15:00 Manchester City
December 2017 (8)
Sat 2 MD15 West Ham 10:00 Manchester City
Wed 6 MD6 Manchester City 14:45 Shakhtar Donetsk
Sat 9 MD16 Manchester City 10:00 Man Utd
Tue 12 MD17 Manchester City 14:45 Swansea
Sat 16 MD18 Tottenham 10:00 Manchester City
Sat 23 MD19 Bournemouth 10:00 Manchester City
Tue 26 MD20 Manchester City 10:00 Newcastle
Sat 30 MD21 Manchester City 10:00 Crystal Palace
January 2018 (4)
Mon 1 MD22 Watford 10:00 Manchester City
Sat 13 MD23 Manchester City 10:00 Liverpool
Sat 20 MD24 Newcastle 10:00 Manchester City
Wed 31 MD25 West Bromwich 15:00 Manchester City
February 2018 (3)
Sat 3 MD26 Manchester City 10:00 Burnley
Sat 10 MD27 Leicester 10:00 Manchester City
Sat 24 MD28 Manchester City 10:00 Arsenal
March 2018 (4)
Sat 3 MD29 Chelsea 10:00 Manchester City
Sat 10 MD30 Manchester City 10:00 Stoke
Sat 17 MD31 Brighton 11:00 Manchester City
Sat 31 MD32 Manchester City 10:00 Everton
April 2018 (4)
Sat 7 MD33 Man Utd 10:00 Manchester City
Sat 14 MD34 Manchester City 10:00 Tottenham
Sat 21 MD35 Swansea 10:00 Manchester City
Sat 28 MD36 Manchester City 10:00 West Ham
May 2018 (2)
Sat 5 MD37 Huddersfield 10:00 Manchester City
Sun 13 MD38 Manchester City 10:00 Southampton

Last season, Barcelona looked like they would run the table again and win La Liga and the Champions League in consecutive seasons. No one could stop them but themselves, and that’s precisely what happened. Messi, Suarez and Neymar played every minute of every game for both club and country, flying back and forth between Spain and South America for nearly 18 months, and then it happened: They ran out of gas.

Coming off an International break they lost the El Classico at home, and were also knocked out of Europe over 2 legs by Atletico Madrid. Combine that with 2 more losses to Real Sociedad and Valencia, and the mighty Barcelona only won 1 game out of 6 between March 20-April 17, 2016. If you were on top of this, you were a handicapping god.

Real Madrid are not on their best form currently. They have drawn their past 4 games. If you had been on top of this, you could have purchased a yacht by now. I successfully picked them to draw 1 of those games, but in the others they killed my parlays.

For all things soccer punter related, you can follow me @zahir_gilani

Category : Betting Picks

Tag : Barcelona , Bayern Munich , LaLiga , Manchester City , Premier League , real madrid , Soccer , Tottenham

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