Sat 05/11/2016 - 17:37 EDT

Breeders’ Cup Sprint Picks 2016

Breeders’ Cup Sprint Picks 2016
In one of the more difficult to decipher races of the Breeders' Cup weekend, the BC Sprint features a field of nine in a race where at least six contenders have a legitimate chance to win.

Breeders’ Cup Sprint Picks 2016

So who’s the fastest of the fast? That could be the fundamental handicapping question to consider in this field. Drefong (7/2) and Masochistic (2/1) figure to outbreak the field and both have proven themselves over the Santa Anita dirt. Drefong, a three year-old Bob Baffert trainee is 4 for 5 in his career including a last-out win in the Grade 1 King’s Bishop Stakes. The colt has twice beaten older rivals and has drawn post 2 which should give him the shortest path to the front. If able to outbreak Masochistic, Dregong possesses the ability to run the opening quarter mile in 21 seconds. Handicappers envisioning a scenario where Masochistic stays glued to his younger rival’s flank can justify the race setting up for a closer. Lord Nelson (5/2), also trained by Baffert, has demonstrated the ability to finish from off the pace. A.P. Indian (4/1) has won five straight on the east coast and is another elite sprinter who can fly late.

  • 1st: (#2) Drefong
  • 2nd: (#6) Lord Nelson
  • 3rd: (#5) A.P. Indian
  • 4th: (#7) Masochistic

Considering some longshots

Joking is a huge price at 15/1 on the morning line despite winning consecutive graded stakes races in New York. The Charlton Baker trainee packs a big late punch and can certainly best this group if the race sets up in his favor. Limousine Liberal is also listed at 15/1 on the morning line despite giving A.P. Indian a big scare October 7 at Keeneland in the Phoenix Stakes, losing by just a neck. These two runners offer considerable value in the wagering gimmicks and should strongly be considered on trifecta and superfecta plays. 

Bottom Line Contenders 

Bob Baffert has a legitimate 1-2 punch with Drefong and Lord Nelson and could be set to win his fourth BC Sprint since 2008. Both runners will be racing out of their own barns and both are in excellent form. Overanalyzing a contentious race can be as disastrous to the profit margin as failing to prepare, and there’s an easy case to be made for the strong hand Baffert appears to hold in this race. Masochistic may be in career-best form, but the veteran sprinter has not fared well when facing elite competition. This will be the best group he’s ever faced and it will be interesting to see how he handles the early pressure he’ll likely get from Drefong.  

Category : Betting Picks

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